A New Ace In Town
Listed in: BaseballAs the AL playoff races shakes out, people have already begun lining up the teams involved as to who has the best rotation, lineup and bullpen. When that talk gets to the A’s, all we hear about is Barry Zito. But in reality, the lefty isn’t the pitcher he was three years ago and is no longer a front line starter. However, that doesn’t mean the A’s don’t have an ace on their staff.
It’s just not Zito.
Because of the interest surrounding the Francisco Liriano injury Wednesday, the spotlight was off the actual result in the game; a 1-0 Twins loss to the A’s. The Twins had already taken the first two games and were going for the sweep today. The A’s offense continued to struggle mustering just one run. But it was enough as 25 year old right hander Dan Haren mowed down the Twins, surrendering just three hits and walking none in eight innings of shut out ball. He struck out seven before giving way to closer Huston Street in the ninth.
Johan Santana is generally considered the best pitcher heading into this postseason in the AL, which probably an understatement considering how dominant he is. But when it comes to the next best pitcher in the league, people will naturally drift towards names like Zito or if they like the new, Justin Verlander. If they’re Yankee fans, they feel Chein Ming Wang can beat anyone. And while at least the latter two have pitched very well this year, Haren right now is better than both. Here’s a comparison of the A’s righty vs. the top pitchers in the American League playoff hunt.
(Note: I calculated BABIP myself, so if there are errors, I apologize)
Haren: 14-11, 206.1 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.24 K/9, 4.15 K/BB, 1.32 GB/FB, 1.13 Hr/9, .293 BABIP
And now the others:
Santana: 18-5, 212.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, .98 WHIP, 9.73 K/9, 5.35 K/BB, 1.04 GB/FB, .93 Hr/9, .266 BABIP
Bonderman: 11-8, 191.2 IP, 4.18 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.78 K/9, 3.28 K/BB, 1.64 GB/FB, .66 Hr/9, .323 BABIP
Wang: 17-5, 200.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.93 K/9, 1.30 K/BB, 3.18 GB/FB, .50 Hr/9, .284 BABIP
Verlander: 16-7, 176.1 IP, 3.42 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 6.07 K/9, 2.15 K/BB, 1.24 GB/FB, .92 Hr/9, .304 BABIP
Zito: 15-9, 200.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.16 K/9, 1.56 K/BB, .90 GB/FB, 1.12 Hr/9, .272 BABIP
I included Zito just to show how much better Haren has been this year. The ERA and W/L record don’t reflect that, but everything else shows who the A’s #1 this year has been. Overall Haren ranks thirtieth in the AL in K/9, fourth in K/BB, fourth in WHIP, tied for twelfth in GB/FB ratio and 10th in ERA. Add that up and you get a pitcher who strikes out a lot of guys, doesn’t walk many, doesn’t get hit hard and gets a fair share of grounders. In other words, a guy you can build a rotation around.
As you can see, Santana is just filthy and is leaps and bounds ahead of everyone else. But looking at baseball in general, Santana is in a league of his own. Haren should be considered the equal if not the better of any other American League playoff pitcher. Bonderman is probably the only one who could shut down a lineup like Santana but has been the victim of a horrific BABIP this year. (Strange considering his K/9, K/BB and GB/FB are exceptional) Wang continues to defy my predictions for him, thanks to his ridiculous GB/FB ratio and an even more ridiculous .50 hr/9!
However I’d take Haren over both. As good as Wang has been this year, a pitcher who allows everything to put in play scares me in a short season. He’s reliant on his fielders who in the past have shown themselves to be mediocre at best. Bonderman I really like, but he does allow a ton of base runners. Neither can be considered dominant. But when you look at his peripherals (and ERA considering it’s the AL), if Haren isn’t one of the more dominating pitchers in the AL this year, he’s pretty close.
And for those who are looking for guys who might be bound for stardom in 2007, look no further than Haren. In 2005 after coming over in the package which sent the Cardinals Mark Mulder (who’s now done for the year), he was very good posting a 3.73 ERA in 217 innings while striking out 6.76 batters per nine. His K/BB was 3.08 and GB/FB was 1.41, both very good. But as you can see by his 2006 statistics, he’s gotten better this year in all categories, except GB/FB where he’s maintained his mark. Heading into his age 26 season there’s no reason to think we won’t get better.
It will be his third full year of starting in the majors, he’ll be entering his prime and his minor league numbers suggest he can still strike more guys out. He struck out a whopping 10.55 batters per nine in 128 innings at AAA in 2003 and had a 4.55 K/BB ratio that season. Those are ace like peripherals right there.
So while Barry Zito might get all the talk in Oakland, the fact of the matter is when he departs this offseason, the A’s will not have to replace their rotation’s ace.
Because Dan Haren will still be front and center at the Coliseum.

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