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NFL Picks: Week Three

Listed in: Football

This week's slate of games features quite a few intriguing contests. There are several matchups of 2-0 teams, and more importantly a couple of 0-2 squads hoping to avoid seeing their seasons end in September. Last week didn't go so hot for me, but I'm planning on a big bounce back.

All picks are against the spread, and people using our picks as a basis for actual monetary wagers are reminded that a fool and his money are soon parted. Home teams, as always, are bolded.

This Week
Ben: 7-4-2
Bryan: 9-2-2
John: 8-3-2
Zach: 7-4-2

Buccaneers +3 vs. Panthers
Ben: Panthers. I wish I didn’t have to pick this game. I’ll go with the Panthers because I have a sneaking suspicion the Bucs defense has finally gotten old. Wrong.
Bryan: Panthers. I'll take Delhomme over Simms. Steve Smith is obviously the big question here. Wrong.
John: Panthers. Steve Smith is back at practice – even if he doesn’t play though I think he will, Carolina is bound to rebound. Plus I think Tampa was a bit of a phantom playoff team last season. But that spread is scary and might get you in the end. Wrong.
Zach: Buccaneers. The Panthers may get Steve Smith back, but they still can't stop the run. This is going to be a hideous game to watch, I think, but I'll take the points and home field advantage. Right.

Browns +6.5 vs. Ravens
Ben: Ravens Maybe Cleveland gets feisty. More likely, their line continues to cause Charlie Frye to run for his life against the Ravens pass rush. Sorry Wiggles, not this week either. Wrong.
Bryan: Browns. Could be a trap game for an extremely confident club. They're on the road, and Cleveland can make some things happen on both sides. Right.
John: Browns. Cleveland hatred of treacherous (at least in their eyes – though why they couldn’t give him a new stadium – but they could three years later Ill never understrand) Art Modell’s Browns carried over on the field where the Browns play surprisingly close. Right.
Zach: Ravens. The Browns can't block anyone. Trust me, I took Reuben Droughns over Frank Gore in our FFB league...yeah, that was a FAN-tastic move. Wrong.

Steelers -2 vs. Bengals
Ben: Bengals. And I actually liked the Steelers to take the AFC North. Monday Night letdown scares me here, yes even with the Steelers at home. The Bengals are a good team and did beat them at Heinz Field last year. Right.
Bryan: Bengals. This pick would have been easier if the Bengals weren't missing some key defensive players, but the Pittsburgh offense suddenly looks awfully slow without Randle El running around. Right.
John: Bengals. In rivalry games like this I’m usually the first to say “Pick the hometeam and so be it.” But I just think the Bengals are a better team and home-field advantage or not they beat the weaker opponent. Pittsburgh will have a HUGE down year. Right.
Zach: Bengals. Ding, dong, the witch is dead...Right.

Lions -6.5 vs. Packers
Ben: Packers. I think the Packers are the second worst team in football. But the Lions aren’t nearly good enough to get seven points, even at home. Right.
Bryan: Packers. No way am I counting on Detroit to win by a touchdown or more. Right.
John: Packers. The Packers are bad, real bad… but hold on a minute… the LIONS, yes, the DETROIT Lions giving 6.5. Please…please…Right.
Zach: Lions. Just a hunch, but the Packers are really, really bad...Wrong.

Dolphins -10.5 vs. Titans
Ben: Dolphins. Currently I’m in first place in Football Outsiders’ Loser League thanks to Kerry Collins. He’s starting again this week. Good for the Landon Donovan Experience, bad for the Tennessee Titans. Wrong.
Bryan: Dolphins. Honestly, would any gambler want to count on either of these teams? I don't think the Titans can score, so hopefully Miami makes it to 11. Wrong.
John: Titans. I’m picking the Phins in my knockout pool and I know how bad Tennessee is, but even so, how can you take the Phins giving up double digits points with the way Culpepper has played? Right.
Zach: Dolphins. When was the last time a winless team was a 10.5 favorite? Even more amazing is the fact that I can't see anyone betting on the Titans in this one (well, besides John I guess). Wrong.

Colts -7 vs. Jaguars
Ben: Jaguars. Right now, I’d say the Jags are the second best team in the AFC. The Colts happen to be the best. But is the second best team a touchdown worse than the best, even with the Monday Night letdown? I don’t think so; especially since the Colts can’t run it consistently. Push.
Bryan: Jaguars. Usually I like the Colts in these games (and especially at home), but I'm not sure they'll be able to mount any sort of ground game. A one-dimensional offense against this defense could spell trouble, and the Jaguars' tall group of receivers should give Indy's secondary fits. Push.
John: Jaguars. Last year the Jags held the Colts to 10 points in Jacksonville – I like them to keep this game relatively close and play a lot of nickel – forcing the Colts to try and run the ball, which they won’t be able to do. Push.
Zach: Jaguars. I concur with the general sentiment: without the threat of a run game, the Colts offense will be far less effective than we're used to...and their defense is once again shaky. Push.

Bills -5.5 vs. Jets
Ben: Jets. I’m 1-1 with the Jets this year, with that loss being by one point. This game will be ugly, low scoring and no way am I giving up 5.5 points with JP Losman. Right.
Bryan: Jets. I'm not ready to count on J.P. Losman winning by a touchdown or more. Games between these two teams are always close. Right.
John: Jets. Whoa. Classic overreaction. The Bills offense still stinks, this game will at the very least be a low scoring barn burner. Double lock this, take the points and hide. Right.
Zach: Jets. Two bad teams, one surprisingly large spread. Right.

Vikings +3 vs. Bears
Ben: Vikings. I don’t love the Vikings, but they are at home and their defense is a step up from the Packers and Lions. The Bears are a step up from the Skins and Panthers as well. I think this one will be close with a field goal as the difference. Push.
Bryan: Bears. The turf factor scares me a little, but Chicago looks like one of the best teams in the league, and you only give up three points against a middle-of-the-road squad. Push.
John: Vikings. This is a roll the dice type of game where you take the team getting points figuring it will be a tight game. Push.
Zach: Bears. This is the second best team in the NFC folks...and the Vikings are an utter fraud. Push.

Texans +4 vs. Redskins
Ben: Redskins. The Texans are a home dog against a struggling football team with a bad QB, but that was a team that didn’t have a healthy Clinton Portis. Both the Skins and my fantasy team are hoping he can shoulder the load in this one. Bad pun intended. Right.
Bryan: Redskins. Washington has sunk, but not as low as this spread would indicate. Right.
John: Texans. I’m not so much still on the Texans bandwagon as I am anti-Washington. Maybe Clinton Portis makes the difference, but I’ll take the home team getting points especially against an absolutely inept offense. Wrong.
Zach: Redskins. They may have started slow, but they're still light years ahead of the Texans. Right.

49ers +6 vs. Eagles
Ben: 49ers. Alright, it’s time to face facts; the Niners aren’t the worst team in the league. They’re not good, but at home with Antonio Bryant and Frank Gore, they deserve to be better than six point dogs. Besides cross country trips are never easy. Wrong.
Bryan: Eagles. Most people like the Niners this week, but I need to see a little bit more before I remove them from the basement of the power rankings. Right.
John: 49ers. Here’s MY surprise team this year! Look out for S.F. baby. The Eagles secondary is brutal, again, BRUTAL. And now they have no pass rush with Jevon Kearse injured. Alex Smith takes advantage at home and keeps it a one score affair. Wrong.
Zach: Eagles. I really like the 49ers...but this is the biggest game of the year for Philly, and I think they bounce back after a heartbreaker against the Giants. Right.

Seahawks -3.5 vs. Giants
Ben: Seahawks. If the Giants hadn’t gotten about as lucky as any team could get last week, this would be a touchdown line. Those three quarters count too and I doubt Shaun Alexander will hand them the game like Brian Westbrook did last week. Right.
Bryan: Seahawks. The Giants' secondary will be exposed. Again. Right.
John: Giants. I think Seattle wins the game, but it’s another toss up scenario especially with the Hawks not showing any punch on offense. In this case, like before, take the team getting the points. Right.
Zach: Seahawks. This one is gonna get ugly for the Giants, fast. Right.

Cardinals -4.5 vs. Rams
Ben: Rams. The Rams offense wasn’t what it was even last year. But their defense is much better. If they can generate a pass rush, they can steal this one. Right.
Bryan: Rams. Denny Green's a terrible coach and the Cards still don't have a
defense. Right.
John: Rams. For some reason I’ve made it one of my missions this year to deflate hopes for an Arizona division title. Rams need a big rebound game after losing to the lowly 49ers. Right.
Zach: Cardinals. The Rams had a great defensive day against the Broncos in Week One, but last week were hung out to dry by the 49ers. The Cardinals blocking may still suck, but the Rams defense isn't good enough to expose it. Wrong.

Patriots -6.5 vs. Broncos
Ben: Broncos. Okay so if I’d have taken the “never take the Pats with big lines” philosophy both weeks, I’d be 1-1. I’m taking Denver here; the Patriots secondary is exactly the cure to what ails Jake the Fake. Right.
Bryan: Broncos. Too many points to give up for a team without wide receivers. Should be a tight game and a nice night for running backs. Right.
John: Broncos. The Pats are going to have a down year, and the Broncos are desperate if not for a win, just to have a decent showing on offense. Broncos, gimme those points baby – lock it up! Right.
Zach: Broncos. I still think they're a very good team, and that's a lot of points to get. Right.

Saints +3 vs. Falcons
Ben: Falcons. One of these teams will be 3-0. The NFL was no doubt hoping it was the Saints, as the Falcons were not predicted to be good. But the magic carpet ride ends here. The Falcons are much better than the Packers and Browns.
Bryan: Falcons. I picked the Saints on the radio but have since changed my mind, the reason being that the Falcons are the more complete team. I hope this pick is wrong.
John: Saints. This has nothing to do with the fact it’s the first game in the Superdome or any other moral nonsense. The Falcons are due for a rough one, and Sean Payton will be smart enough to force Michael Vick to pass the ball.
Zach: Falcons. The Saints are the worst 2-0 team in the league. They beat the Browns and Packers...whoop-dee-freakin-doo! They're gonna get crushed by Atlanta.

Last Week
Ben: 10-6
Bryan: 11-5
John: 9-7
Zach: 7-9

Season Standings

Bryan: 31-12-2
John: 27-16-2
Ben: 25-18-2
Zach: 22-21-2

See also: Gambling, NFL, NFL Picks

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