NFL Picks: Week Eleven
Listed in: FootballAnother week, another ass-kicking applied by yours truly. Next year I may have to find an entirely new crew of prognosticators unless things turn around. In case you're curious, the turning point was Week Five, when I was out of town for the weekend. Ben was given the solemn duty of posting the picks that week, but instead used his platform to launch numerous attacks on my picking ability. Since that fateful decision, let's look at the records (after Week 10):
Since Week Four
Ben: 38-45-1
Bryan: 39-44-1
John: 29-54-1
Zach: 53-30-1
In fact, things have gotten so bad for John that he wanted me to post this apology to his legions of fans who now feel like that guy in the phone booth in Two for the Money: To my loyal readers, and millions of fans. My picks this year have been a disgrace. In 15 odd years of picking every NFL game every week I have never finished a season under .500 overall. I have seven weeks, and 19 games under .500 to make up. The streak WILL continue, and that’s a fact. Time to go back top basics – and trust the gut.
My opinion? He's got no shot...but keep reaching for that star, John.
All picks are against the spread and home teams are bolded.
This Week
Ben: 7-8-1
Bryan: 5-10-1
John: 9-6-1
Zach: 8-7-1
Chiefs -9.5 vs. Raiders
Ben: Chiefs. The Raiders have played better at home recently. This one’s on the road. Trent Green is back but expect a Larry Johnson show against a Raiders unit suspect against the run. Wrong.
Bryan: Chiefs. Kansas City is unstoppable at home. It doesn't matter if it's Aaron Brooks or Andrew Walter playing today. Wrong.
John: Raiders. You might say the big story is Trent Green coming back for the Chiefs. Negative! Aaron Brooks is back baby! And the Raiders have, to everyone’ surprise, kept a lot of games real close. Their defense isn’t half bad. Ride the silver and black! And yes, I am actually on Aaron Brooks’ payroll. Right.
Zach: Raiders. The defense, which Football Outsiders predicted to be the third best in football this year, is actually pretty damn good. The offense...not so much. But KC is trying to get Trent Green re-integrated into the offense, and that's a lot of points. Right.
Saints -3 vs. Bengals
Ben: Bengals. I really think the tassels are about to come off the Saints magic carpet ride. That defense can’t stop anyone and inside the dome is a nice place for the Bengals to continue their offensive resurgence. Right.
Bryan: Bengals. A close high-scoring game, but the game's more important for the Bengals. Take the points. Right.
John: Bengals. How many times is this team going to absolutely shove it up my rear end before I stop picking them? I’m an idiot. Nevertheless, the Saints don’t have the defense to stop Cincy, and their offense shouldn’t be able to stick with them. Right.
Zach: Bengals. Maybe last week's heartbreaker will provide them with the needed motivation...or maybe the Saints aren't all that good. Right.
Browns +3 vs. Steelers
Ben: Steelers. These two teams actually have the same record. How do you like that? Figure the Steelers don’t let Cleveland up them in the standings as they keep their faint playoff hopes alive. Right.
Bryan: Browns. Home 'dogs are winning against the spread at an unbelievable rate this year. Wrong.
John: Steelers. The Steeler offense LIVES! It’s alive! It’s ALIVE! It’s gonna be too late but here comes the Steelers run, even in Cleveland with the Browns coming off a monster win, go Pitt. Right.
Zach: Browns. The Steelers are not that good, and are banged up on defense. I like the home team in this one. Wrong.
Eagles -13 vs. Titans
Ben: Eagles. The NFL’s first half MVP? Donovan McNabb. This week he faces the worst secondary in the league. Enjoy (Hopefully my fantasy team will)! Wrong.
Bryan: Eagles. Vince Young can't catch a plane, how is he going to keep up with the Eagles? Wrong.
John: Eagles. The Titans are the type of team that the Eagles absolutely eat up. They roll at home, smelling a possible division title. Wrong.
Zach: Titans. The Titans are feisty, that's for sure, and I like them to cover the nearly two-touchdown spread.Right.
Ravens -4 vs. Falcons
Ben: Falcons. Totally a gut pick. The Falcons always pull a fast one on ya when you think they’re out. So they keep this one close and maybe pull out the win against a banged up Baltimore team. Wrong.
Bryan: Ravens. Baltimore confuses Vick even without Lewis. Right.
John: Falcons. Just when you think the Falcons have turned the corner they stumble. Just when you think they are done, they rebound. This falls into the latter category. The Ravens, also, are not playing all that well lately. Wrong.
Zach: Ravens. I'm staying away from fading teams (Rams, Vikings, Falcons). Right.
Panthers -6.5 vs. Rams
Ben: Panthers. Rams fighting for their season. Unfortunately they’ve gotten worse every game since about week 3. Makes it hard for anyone to pick them here. Right.
Bryan: Rams. I think St. Louis definitely stays in this game. Wrong.
John: Rams. I KNEW it. I just KNEW IT! The Rams, as usual, lost to Seattle last week in the most painful way possible. But I didn’t have the stones to take the Rams with the 3 points. It cost me. They’ve now lost four straight but continue to battle, so take the points and expect a loss in a close game. Wrong.
Zach: Panthers. No way I take the Rams again this year. Right.
Texans -2.5 vs. Bills
Ben: Bills. Both of these teams have units above their record, Buffalo with defense, the Texans with offense. But both are inconsistent, hence their lousy marks. The Texans are coming off a sweep of the Jags (let down) and David Carr is battling an injury. I’ll take the Bills. Right.
Bryan: Texans. When both teams stink, and the spread is less than a field goal, take the home team. Wrong.
John: Texans. How the hell are you supposed to pick a Houston-Buffalo game? Both teams are so bad. Awful. How do each have three wins? Who lost to these teams, besides Jacksonville. Go with the home team. Wrong.
Zach: Texans. Home field. Wrong.
Packers +6 vs. Patriots
Ben: Packers. What’s the one weakness in New England’s defense? The secondary! Everyone should know this by now. Injured groin or no, Brett Farve can still bring it. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings should be in for big days. Wrong.
Bryan: Packers. Way too many points on the road, especially with Brady looking so lost lately. Wrong.
John: Patriots. Believe it or not, the Patriots are better on the road this year. And there is no chance on God’s Green Earth that they lose three straight. I smell a Favre turnover game. Right.
Zach: Patriots. The Packers can't beat anyone good, and as John said, no way the Pats lose three in a row. Right.
Buccaneers -3 vs. Redskins
Ben: Buccaneers. Dislike both teams, but the Skins have no Portis or Moss and are starting Jason Campbell for the first time. At home, I’ll take the Bucs even giving up the 3. Push.
Bryan: Redskins. This was the worst playoff game of all time last season. At
least Washington has some semblance of an offense. Push.
John: Redskins. To heck with it, Jason Campbell? Why not? The Bucs stink, the Skins don’t stink quite so much. They play for pride and in the very least cover the number. Push.
Zach: Buccaneers. Home field part two. Push.
Dolphins -3 vs. Vikings
Ben: Dolphins. Dolphins on the ascent, Vikings on the descent. Don’t be surprised if Brooks Bollinger, who tossed for 300 yards against Miami last year, gets some action in relief of Brad Johnson in this one. Right.
Bryan: Dolphins. One team is resurgent, and the other is collapsing. Throw in home-field and it's a no-brainer. Right.
John: Vikings. How am I picking the Vikings on the road after losing at home to the Packers? I don’t know. But I cant figure out the Vikings, so let’s go against common sense and trust the gut. Wrong.
Zach: Dolphins. They're playing decent football the last few weeks, unlike the Vikes. Right.
Jets +7 vs. Bears
Ben: Bears. I’m curious to see what Bryan thinks, but this game reeks of Jacksonville all over again. People start getting excited about the Jets (rightfully so) and think they can pull the upset. Then a physical team comes in and whups up on them. The Bears can likely survive by rushing four, forcing Chad Pennington to beat seven guys in coverage. I don’t think he can. Right.
Bryan: Jets. The Penguin comes out with another masterful gameplan! Wrong.
John: Bears. I cant see the Bears winning two blowouts in the Meadowlands in consecutive weeks, but I’m picking them anyway. The Jets cant stop the run and the Bears have two pretty good backs. They struggle when Rex Grossman is pressured, but the Jets have no pass rush. Plus, this is a let down… no…. crash back down to earth game after beating the Pats. Right.
Zach: Bears. I just don't have faith that the Jets can score more than a touchdown...and I like the Bears offense to put up three or so. Right.
49ers +3.5 vs. Seahawks
Ben: Seahawks. Vegas was clearly scared by Mike Holmgren refusing to name a starter at QB and HB. The Niners are better than people expected but even the Seneca Wallace/Maurice Morris show should be able to do enough to win. Wrong.
Bryan: Seahawks. The Niners aren't as good as their record. It's going to catch up to them eventually. Wrong.
John: 49ers. The Seahawks are one, maybe two weeks away from getting everyone back. They will look ahead, and let down after taking down the Rams. Plus, the 49ers are coming off two straight wins and playing well on defense. Right.
Zach: Seahawks. A win this week and the division is, for all intents and purposes, theirs. Wrong.
Cowboys +1 vs. Colts
Ben: Colts. I know a lot of people like Dallas but no one is worse against the deep ball in the NFL than their safeties. That’s what the Colts do. So I’ll take them here. Wrong.
Bryan: Colts. Every gambling rule tells me to take the Cowboys. I still like my gut feeling. Wrong.
John: Cowboys. This is the game of the year. If the Cowboys win it they can challenge for the division and maybe make a Super Bowl run. If they don’t it turns into another mediocre season either missing the playoffs or getting knocked out in the first round. In short, Romo rules!! Cowboys finally win that big game. Right.
Zach: Colts. I have to take the better team. Wrong.
Cardinals -2 vs. Lions
Ben: Lions. Can’t take the Cardinals, especially giving up points! They’re the Lions, but they can score. The Cardinals haven’t done that in some time. Wrong.
Bryan: Lions. Just because I can't see Denny Green winning another game before he gets fired. Wrong.
John: Cardinals. These guys have to win sooner or later… right? The Lions really angered me last week not showing up at home against the 49ers and the Cardinals tend to be decent at home. Right.
Zach: Lions. The Cardinals suck, really, really hard. Wrong.
Broncos -2.5 vs. Chargers
Ben: Chargers. Until proven otherwise, I don’t trust Denver’s defense against good offenses. The Chargers can take advantage of a defense that is Champ Bailey and not much else, just like the Colts did. Right.
Bryan: Chargers. I just think San Diego is the better team, even if they're not that great on the road. Right.
John: Broncos. People love to talk about the Chargers defense but they’ve given 20 points or more in each of the last four games, one of those more than 30, and another more than 40. The Broncos shut that down, and squeak out a win. Wrong.
Zach: Broncos. I like the potential for the Broncos passing game against the porous Chargers secondary. Wrong.
Jaguars -3.5 vs. Giants
Ben: Giants. The Jaguars should win this game; both teams are beat up but the Giants are a mess on offense as well as defense. But the Jags don’t score much, the Giants are on the road, so I can’t see this one being a shootout. So I’ll take the points. Wrong.
Bryan: Jaguars. The Giants are reeling from injuries, and the Jaguars should be able to regroup at home. Right.
John: Jaguars. And so the skid for the Giants begins. They lost last week and go on the road this week against a Jekyll and Hyde Jacksonville team. The Jaguars are due to be up, after a down week last week.
Zach: Giants. More weapons for New York, even with all the injuries. Wrong.
Last Week
Ben: 7-9
Bryan: 7-9
John: 4-12
Zach: 12-4
Season Standings
Zach: 88-68-4
Bryan: 82-74-4
Ben: 77-79-4
John: 70-86-4
