Soria-NO
Listed in: BaseballSometimes general managers make critiques real easy.
If the reports are valid and the Chicago Cubs have signed Alfonso Soriano to an eight year, 136 million dollar contract, then you can pretty much wrap it up; they’ve made the dumbest move of the off season. The only way that can be topped is if someone hands Barry Zito a seven year contract worth more than 100 million dollars.
Of course, with the way the market has gone thus far, no one should be surprised if that actually does happen.
Let’s examine this for a second. Soriano, a surly, all or nothing offensive player whose career OPS is a whopping .835 just got handed a contract that will be paying him 17 million bucks a year until he’s 39. Reportedly he’s going to play centerfield for the Cubbies. Good luck with that, since he’s never been anything but a butcher everywhere else in the field. Soriano has never been an MVP candidate and highest career OPS is .911, put up this year. Oh and he’s thirty.
Definitely worth “Silly Money”.
A term coined by fellow Jabber Jock David, (or at least used in reference here) it talks about ridiculous baseball contracts, usually in length and money, which extend into the 100 million dollar range. A-Rod makes “Silly Money”. So does Carlos Beltran. Ironically, Vladimir Guerrero does not. (Thank you collusion.)
To put it in some perspective- Soriano’s contract would be the fifth largest in baseball history. Let’s look at the other deals, shall we?
Alex Rodriguez: 10 years, 252 million
Derek Jeter: 10 years, 189 million
Manny Ramirez: 8 years, 160 million
Todd Helton: 9 years, 141.5 million (it was a nine year extension to the two years remaining on his deal)
All are contracts, with the exception of the Yankees who have more money than any baseball franchise can dream of, the team who signed the player have tried to escape from. A-Rod, at shortstop, was the best player in baseball and the Rangers still wanted out. The Sox have tried to deal Manny multiple times. Heck, they tried to do it for A-Rod once. And Helton has been talked about in deals, but since he’s declining steadily, no one in their right mind would ever want him.
Now let’s look at their careers leading up to the big deal by checking out their OPS marks in those years. At the end, I’ll also throw in the age they signed the deal at. Also, these are full season; I leave out their partial first year or two.
A-Rod: 1.045, .846, .920, .943, 1.026 (25)
A-Rod received a ludicrous money amount, but if there ever were a player to throw a ten year deal at, he’d be the guy. Technically he wasn’t even in his prime yet at 25. At the end of the pact he’ll be 35 and still be a productive player. If he were a still a shortstop, the odds are he’d close to top five even at that age.
It was a bad deal because Texas bid against themselves, but there is nothing wrong with the most valuable player in the league making the most. Up until his trade to the Yankees, there was no player more valuable than A-Rod and the Yankees are to blame for him not being that anymore.
Manny: .960, .981, .953, .976, 1.105, 1.154 (28)
A ridiculous one dimensional player, but probably the best offensive player at the time. (Remember, this was pre Bonds madness and before Pujols). Manny was 28 years old and while eight years put him at 36, it was likely he’d only be a burden for couple of those eight years, making it a solid deal if he produced like he had in 1999 and 2000. Turns out he never did, but still posted OPS marks over 1000 in every season except 2005, where he only had a .982 mark. (The bastard!)
Manny was a hall of fame hitter with at least four great years left in him and probably two more very good ones. Turns out he had at least five great seasons.
Helton: .910, .982, 1.161, (27)
This is the big head scratcher. Helton was a great hitter, but he was 27. Granted whether he’s a Coors product is irrelevant for the Rockies, but it was a vast overpay for even the best first baseman at the time. It was off one great season, and the Rockies already had him for two more years anyway.
Note he’ll be 38 at the end of the deal.That means the Rockies were paying a ton of money for about three, maybe four prime years and hoping against hope for the rest. They’re still hoping, but not seeing results.
Jeter: .800, .775, .865, .990, .897 (26)
Jeter was 26 when he signed his deal, but it was an idiotic contract then and even if he takes the MVP home this year, it’s an idiotic deal now. The Yankees were paying off one season, which wasn’t even the one they signed him off of. No intangibles are worth 18.9 million dollars a season.
And if Jeter played for anyone else, people would be complaining this was the worst contract in baseball. No team should be paying “Silly Money” to a guy who’s OPS-ed over 900 twice in his entire career. (And that’s including 2006). But it’s the Yankees so people neglect that fact. As I’ve screamed for years now, A-Rod much closer to his contract than Jeter is to his. (There’s no way in hell Jeter is the second best player in baseball- not even this season)
But Soriano has them all beat. His numbers: .736, .879, .863, .808, .821, .911 (30)
Those numbers look familiar? They should. I essentially posted them with Jeter. However there are four factors which actually make this the worst contract in baseball and on par with Mike Hampton and Kevin Brown for the worst in baseball history.
1. Soriano isn’t a shortstop like Jeter; he’s an outfielder. Maybe he takes to center where the Cubs reportedly will play him, but he’s been miserable everywhere else in the field, so why should he be any better there?
2. Soriano is 30, so at best he’s got three prime seasons left. Also unlike all of these guys except Jeter, Soriano is purely power and speed. He’s not an OBP hitter, which is important because they tend to last much longer. Those who are not tend to fall apart fairly quickly. In Jeter’s case, since he was 26, he still hypothetically had seven or eight prime years left.
3. Soriano’s best season wasn’t even as good as Jeter’s. His absolute best offensive season (in a contract year--- RED FLAG!!!) made him a very good player but not an MVP candidate. A one year candidate shouldn’t get “Silly Money”, and Soriano wasn’t even that
4. The Cubs don’t have the Yankees budget. So when Soriano likely tanks at age 35, the Cubs will still have three years left on his deal for an exorbitant amount of money. They simply can’t absorb that for a player who will provide them little more than strikeouts.
Also consider this, in his worst year, this season, A-Rod had an OPS of .915, at third which is more valuable than Soriano’s .911 mark in leftfield.
For the record, any number of teams could have Alfonso Soriano right now for far less.
It’s true! I can give you a player right now whose team doesn’t want him but he’s had exactly the same number of 900+ OPS years (one), is 30 and plays left field rather poorly. Plus, he has a higher career OPS at .841!
But you know, if he were on the open market, I doubt anyone would be offering Pat Burrell an eight year, 136 million dollar contract. (If the Phillies had only been the ones to make this deal; then this column would have written itself) Kind of makes sense, since while Burrell is a solid offensive player, he’s certainly not worth anywhere near 17 million dollars a year.
So remember:
Soriano- 30 years old, .835 career OPS
Burrell- 30 years old, .841 career OPS
Tell me again why the Cubs are cursed by anything other than bad management?

Comments
I'm sure that if you were to make that comparison around most people, they'd say "but you're neglecting the fact that Soriano stole 41 bases!" True, but he also got caught stealing 17 times, for a 71% success rate. That's right on the borderline for whether he should be running at all, but it clearly doesn't add much value. Now granted, he did steal 30 bases in 32 tries in 2005, but it's unlikely he'll be able to match his career 78% success rate as he continues to age.
I'd disagree with the statement that he was a butcher in the field last year...the general feeling is that he was pretty bad in left at the beginning of the year, but as he learned the position he was about average. Of course, that doesn't mean he'll be able to be even average in center, and even if he were this is still a horrendous contract.
Posted by: Zach | November 20, 2006 11:27 AM
Ben,
I agree with basically everything you said about Soriano and how ridiculous this deal is. However:
Soriano has never been an MVP candidate
He finished third in the 2002 MVP race. He received just 20 less points than second-place A-Rod, and even received two first-place votes. Then again, Miguel Tejada basically ran away with it that year.
Posted by: Joseph P. | November 20, 2006 2:58 PM
Zach, a lot of people use the assist stat to bolster their argument that Soriano was at least average in left. (Not sure if thats what you're going on) However assists don't show much except who people think they can run on. So at best he's average. Still not worth the contract and average left fielders don't usually excel in center.
Joe- my argument was more along the lines of his actual numbers show he's not a real MVP candidate. That season he had a .873 OPS, excellent for a second baseman. But he was a butcher in the field and there's no way he should have finished higher than Jim Thome (1.122 OPS) Manny Ramirez (1.097) Jason Giambi (1.034) or even Bernie Williams who had a .908 mark in center playing much better defense.
That A-Rod who had a 1.015 OPS while playing above average defense at shortstop, didn't win the award just shows how stupid it is. He, like Thome, was punished for playing for a bad team despite the fact they were the two most valuable players in the league.
On the other hand, it does show why people overrate Soriano so much. He hit 39 homers and stole 41 bases. So he must be real good. (This isn't a shot at you Joe, it's at what the general consensus is with Soriano)
Posted by: Ben Valentine | November 20, 2006 4:16 PM
Up until his trade to the Yankees, there was no player more valuable than A-Rod and the Yankees are to blame for him not being that anymore.
I disagree- the Yankees' fans who are kneejerk asshole self-important zombies (which to my dismay has appeared latley to constitute the majority) and the bigger-asshole media who feed them are to blame for any depression in his value.
Soriano isn’t a shortstop like Jeter; he’s an outfielder.
and before that he was a hilariously overrated second baseman.
I was going to gleefully shred the Cubs at length over at my own place about their wrapping this anchor around their neck and ensuring noncompetitiveness with the Cardinals for years to come, but as usual you've put me (and probably most other takers) to shame, so I'll just gank.
Posted by: june | November 20, 2006 10:16 PM
The Juan Pierre deal makes both the Drew and Soriano deals look like absolute steals.
Posted by: chris | November 20, 2006 10:54 PM
Actually June, I was referring to that once he was dealt he was forced to move from short, which depreciated his value. That is the Yankees' fault, as he was the better shortstop than Jeter and should have remained in his natural position. However, the further depreciation has been the fault of the media and fans.
You should rip them anyway. The Cubbies deserve it for this blunder.
Chris- That Pierre deal is beyond terrible. The only thing saving it from Soriano proportions is that it's five years versus eight. But nine million a year?! Per value, Pierre will almost certainly be the most overpaid player in baseball next year. A post will be forthcoming on this, but probably for Thursday.
But until then I'll use my trademark phrase for whenever something idiotic happens in LA, "Aren't Dodgers fans glad Paul DePodesta isnt there to ruin that franchise anymore??"
Posted by: Ben Valentine | November 20, 2006 11:08 PM
Ah. I thought you were talking about the fact that he is now perceived as the Worst Player of Baseball of All Time.
Posted by: june | November 21, 2006 8:45 PM