Finally, we get to the pitching.

After a bit of a detour, the Anthony Young award has arrived; named after a much ballyhooed prospect in the Mets organization back in the early to mid nineties. The next Doc Gooden managed to lose twenty seven straight decisions at one point. In his defense, Young wasn’t as bad as that, but the infamy stuck. And besides, his name is perfect for the anti- Cy Young.

My evaluations came down to peripherals, innings pitched and luck, not necessarily in that order. ERA was a minor consideration, but as you will see, a lower ERA isn’t necessarily the indication of a better pitcher. If a guy had a BABIP (Batting average on balls put in play) higher than .290 or a HR/FB percentage over 10, then that was taken into consideration. Of course almost all of these guys have had some bad luck; you don’t end up at the bottom of the pile by talent alone.

I present to you the worst ten pitchers in the National League for 2006. Enjoy:

10. Jamey Wright, San Francisco Giants, 34 Games, 21 Starts

Stats: 156.0 IP, 6-10, 5.19 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 4.56 K/9, 1.23 K/BB, 2.47 GB/FB, .92 HR/9, .295 BABIP, 13.2% HR/FB

The Skinny: The only groundball pitcher to make the list, Jamey Wright’s peripherals were so bad, they would have put him in the top five. However, the fact that he’s a ground ball pitcher helps excuse him some. He was the victim of a lot of home run balls as that HR/FB percentage suggests, but his BABIP was pretty normal. Overall Wright isn’t as bad as the numbers suggest but he’s close.

That being said, his bad doesn’t compare with the top guys on this list. So he comes in 10th in what is a jumble down here at the bottom.

9. Brian Moehler, Florida Marlins, 29 games, 21 starts

Stats: 122.0 IP, 7-11, 6.57 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 4.28 K/9, 1.53 K/BB, 1.38 GB/FB, 1.40 HR/9, .336 BABIP, 13.1% HR/FB

The skinny: Moehler is what you don’t want; a neutral pitcher who doesn’t strike many guys out and walks quite a few. His GB/FB ratio might make you think he could survive when pitching at cavernous Pro Player Stadium but the stats say otherwise. Remarkably, he gave up that high a percentage of home runs on his fly balls despite pitching half the time there. Moehler was unlucky with the BABIP, but then again, when you don’t strike a lot of people out and aren’t inducing many ground balls, batters are probably hitting it hard, somewhere.

Considering the Marlins were chock full of young arms, it’s surprising he got 21 starts. This was one case where it was better off throwing the kids into the fire than going with the “reliable” vet, unless you like having to score seven runs every five days to win.

8. Tony Armas, Washington Nationals, 30 games, 30 starts

Stats: 154.0 IP, 9-12, 5.03 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 5.67 K/9, 1.52 K/BB, .97 GB/FB, 1.11 HR/9, .305 BABIP, 9.6% HR/FB

The Skinny: Unlike Moehler, Armas had normal luck. And as a result, he managed to keep his ERA to just above five, rather than over six and a half. It may have helped that he missed more bats, but the much lower GB/FB makes strike outs even more important. Armas’ control was also brutal.

But as I said, unlike all but one other pitcher on this list, Armas was bad without any cruddy luck. His BABIP is slightly higher than normal but not terrible and his HR/FB was even slightly lower than normal. So basically Armas was every bit the 5.03 ERA he pitched to this season. He’s a free agent, and anyone who gambles on him at this point probably should have their head examined.

7. Josh Fogg, Colorado Rockies, 31 Games, 31 starts

Stats: 172.0 IP, 11-9, 5.49 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 4.87 K/9, 1.55 K/BB, 1.14 GB/FB, 1.26 HR/9, .317 BABIP, 10.8% HR/FB

The Skinny: Sometimes baseball is a weird sport. Byung Hyun Kim’s ERA was actually higher (5.57) than Fogg’s despite having a higher K/9 (7.49), K/BB (2.11) and roughly equivalent GB/FB ratio (1.17) and HR/FB (10.9%). Kim’s BABIP was higher, .343, but that doesn’t make up for the fact Kim’s ERA should be much lower.

Josh Fogg was a really bad pitcher this year. The basic stats say so was Byung Hyun Kim but looking deeper throws that into question.

In short, I’ve devoted Fogg’s space to advocating for some team with pitching woes to trade for Kim. His value is likely very low and he’s still just 27 years old. He’ll never be a stud, but he can be a serviceable fourth for someone.

6. Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros, 30 games, 24 starts

Stats: 135.2 IP, 9-10, 5.64 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 6.50 K/9, 1.56 K/BB, 1.37 GB/FB, 1.13 HR/9, .325 BABIP, 11.9% HR/FB

The Skinny: An assist here to Roger Clemens. In fact, had the Rocket not played games with the Astros again and started the season with them, it’s no stretch to say they’d have made the playoffs, not the Cardinals. Just think; Clemens in the rotation instead of Rodriguez (or I suppose Tyler Bucholtz. Either one stinks). The Astros probably win at least four or five more games, they beat out the Cardinals and the entire postseason is different.

So St. Louis, throw an assist to that World Championship Clemens’ way as well.

As for Rodriguez, he’s got an arm as that K/9 indicates, but his control is pretty lousy. He was a bit unlucky this year, so there’s reason to be optimistic. He’ll likely never be an ace, but he’s the first pitcher on this list who’s got a chance to be something other than a repeat member of the Anthony Young voting next year.

5. Oliver Perez, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets, 22 games, 22 starts

Stats: 112.2 IP, 3-13, 6.55 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 8.15 K/9, 1.50 K/BB, .64 GB/FB, 1.60 HR/9, .336 BABIP, 12.5% HR/FB

The skinny: My hope for the future of the Mets’ rotation was the fifth worst pitcher in the National League this year. I’m sure the few loyal readers I have are surprised he made the list, let alone the top five.

Perez was arguably the unluckiest pitcher in the NL this year with a .336 BABIP and 12.5 HR/FB rate, both well above the norm. But he did himself no favors with his control. And when you give up as many fly balls as he does, you’re going to give up the long ball as well.

But that K/9 is why you have to be optimistic. That and the fact his peripherals all got much better after his trade to the Mets, even though his BABIP and HR/FB actually got worse. (Again, makes no sense)

So I’m quite optimistic that Perez won’t be back on this list next year. And I’ll hopeful that within two or seasons, he’ll find his way onto an actual Cy Young ballot. Remember, 2004 was just two years ago.

4. Sean Marshall, Chicago Cubs, 24 games, 24 starts

Stats: 125.2 IP, 6-9, 5.59 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 5.52 K/9, 1.31 K/BB, 1.41 GB/FB, 1.43 HR/9, .288 BABIP, 13.7% HR/FB

The Skinny: The list begins to get real ugly now. Marshall’s K rate isn’t particularly good and his strike out/walk rate is acceptable, if he were an extreme groundball pitcher. He’s not, as you can see. And while he didn’t have much luck with the big fly in 2006, his BABIP is the league average.

He’d have placed higher, but at this point the innings began to catch up with our contenders. The top three are all guys who threw the qualifying number of innings and as a result, all hurt their teams more than a Marshall or Perez (but maybe not Rodriguez given the circumstances) ever could.

3. Ramon Ortiz, Washington Nationals, 33 games, 33 starts

Stats: 190.2 IP, 11-16, 5.57 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 4.91 K/9, 1.63 K/BB, 1.03 GB/FB, 1.46 HR/9, .315 BABIP, 11.7% HR/FB

The Skinny: Boy oh boy, a fly ball pitcher who doesn’t miss bats… actually hold that thought for like thirty seconds. I’ll be going nuts on that shortly.

For this spot all I’ll say is: How bad were the Nationals in 2006 that they had to throw Ramon Ortiz out there for 33 starts? Forget signing Alfonso Soriano; if this is the best they can throw out there in an extreme pitcher’s park, then they should spend that money on two or three hurlers.

2. Steve Trachsel, New York Mets, 30 games, 30 starts

Stats: 164.2 IP, 15-8, 4.97 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 4.32 K/9, 1.01 K/BB, 1.04 GB/FB, 1.26 HR/9, .296 BABIP, 10.1 % HR/FB

The skinny: Okay, thirty second wait over. What do you get when you have a fly ball pitcher who doesn’t strike anyone out and walks over four batters per nine?

Steve Trachsel: circa 2006.

The Mets could not have done worse than Trachsel this season. In fact I’m reasonably confident that even Jose Lima could have outpitched him given 30 starts to do so. Yes I’m serious. Trachsel walked one less batter (78) than he struck out this year. ONE LESS!!! Over a whole season. As I mentioned earlier, the only people who ever get away with that are ground ball pitchers and with a 1.04 ratio, it’s safe to say Trachsel is not.

What saved Trachsel’s ERA? The fact that his BABIP and HR/FB are normal. Essentially Steve Trachsel is telling us that in a season where everything breaks according to statistical averages, a pitcher who gives up an equal number of fly balls/ground balls, strike outs/walks will be around a 5.00 ERA pitcher.

Oh yes and with 15 wins this year, Trachsel is also the case and point as to why a pitcher’s wins are the most meaningless statistic in baseball. As many Mets fans pointed out, Trachsel was very good at keep teams in games this year, too bad it was whoever was playing the Mets that day.

Thankfully the Mets fulfilled my wish and dumped Trachsel for Oliver Perez in the playoffs. It almost got them into a World Series. And since this will be likely one of the last things I write on the free agent, I close with this final tribute to the human rain delay:

“Throw the damn ball!”

1. Jason Marquis, St. Louis Cardinals, 33 games, 33 starts

Stats: 194.1 IP, 14-16, 6.02 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 4.45 K/9, 1.28 K/BB, 1.07 GB/FB, 1.62 HR/9, .292 BABIP, 13.1% HR/FB

The Skinny: It’s incredible that Tony LaRussa stuck with Marquis for 33 starts with a 6.02 ERA and no redeeming peripherals whatsoever, but hey, I guess that’s why I don’t manage a baseball team right?

Of course the reality is that had the Cardinals choked away a playoff spot, Marquis would have been one of the prime reasons why. I mean a guy who strikes out as few, walks as many and gives up as many fly balls as Marquis does with a 6.00 ERA should not be throwing near 200 innings for anyone. This is a classic case of why the rationale “he’s useful because he eats innings” is stupid. The fact is pretty much any replacement level pitcher could have eaten the innings Marquis did because they weren’t quality.

Memo to LaRussa: A pitcher gives you 200 bad innings is worse than a pitcher who gives you 150 mediocre ones. (Anthony Reyes)

But to his credit, LaRussa wised up in October. One of the reasons the Cardinals won the World Series is because Marquis didn’t get a start in either the NLCS or World Series. In fact, forget what Tim McCarver or anyone else says about LaRussa’s in game managing; this was by far the smartest thing he did the entire postseason.

And there you have it, Jason Marquis, the 2006 Anthony Young winner in the National League.
Tomorrow, it’s time for the American League.

The Homer Bush Award: National League, American League