When Alfonso Soriano received 136 million from the Chicago Cubs at the start of this off season, many began to wonder if we were heading towards a 2000- like spending spree. The comparisons were only furthered when Carlos Lee got 100 million and Gil Meche got 55 mil.

And now with Barry Zito getting 7 years, 126 million from the Giants, the comparisons are complete.

If Soriano was the overpriced and over hyped version of A-Rod, then Zito works perfectly as Mike Hampton.

The Rockies foolishly handed out an 8 year, 121 million dollar contract to the lefty, right after he had earned a NLCS MVP in 2000 with the Mets. Many Mets fans trashed the organization for being cheap, but it turned out to be the right move.

Actually more like the “Wright” move; the compensatory pick the Mets received from the Rockies went on to become David Wright.

Though there will be no compensation here, the Mets did the right thing by letting Zito go. I’ve been calling the lefty overrated for this entire off season, screaming that his peripherals were no better than Livan Hernandez’s. Now I’ve got an even better guy to throw out there in Hampton.

Here are Zito’s last three years:

2004: 11-11, 4.48 ERA, 213 IP, 1.39 WHIP, 6.89 K/9, 2.01 K/BB, 1.18 HR/9, .300 BABIP, .85 GB/FB

2005:14-13, 3.86 ERA, 228.1 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 6.74 K/9, 1.92 K/BB, 1.02 HR/9, .252 BABIP, 1.05 GB/FB

2006: 16-10, 3.83 ERA, 221 IP, 1.40 WHIP, 6.15 K/9, 1.53 K/BB, 1.10 HR/9, .280 BABIP, .84 GB/FB

And now Hampton’s 1998-2000 (Ideal because like Zito, he was 28 heading into his free agent year)

1998: 11-7, 3.36 ERA, 211.2 IP, 1.46 WHIP, 5.83 K/9, 1.69 K/BB, .77 HR/9, .312 BABIP, 2.70 GB/FB

1999: 22-4, 2.90 ERA, 239 IP, 1.28 WHIP, 6.67 K/9, 1.75 K/BB, .45 HR/9, .281 BABIP, 2.56 GB/FB

2000: 15-10, 3.14 ERA, 217.2 IP, 1.35 WHIP, 6.24 K/9, 1.53 K/BB, .41 HR/9, .284 BABIP, 2.51 GB/FB

As you can see, the peripherals are similar. However there are a couple of things to note which I believe balance out. Hampton pitched in the Astrodome, a notorious pitcher’s park and in the National League. The Oakland Coliseum is pitcher friendly, but not like the old Astrodome was. And of course Zito was in the American League.

However, Hampton also was a ground ball pitcher, where as Zito is a flyball one. This is important because ground ball pitchers can get away with worse peripherals than fly ball ones.

Now Zito had started off from a higher peak, but at this point it doesn’t make much sense to include his first couple of years in the majors. He could return to that, but what he’s been the last three years is far more indicative of what he likely will be. Those three years show that Zito isn’t much better, than Mike Hampton was when he signed his contract. In fact, based off groundball/flyball ratio, you could make an argument Hampton would be a better bet going forward.

One of the big pluses for Zito has been his durability. It will no doubt be used to justify why giving him seven years, with an option for an eighth, isn’t so bad. I once again submit to you, Mike Hampton.

Hampton’s fewest innings pitched came when he was just made into a starter, in ’95 and ’96. Those seasons saw him throw 150.2 and 160.1 IP. After that, Hampton was Mr. Durable, throwing 200+ innings from ’97-’00. He did continue this early in the contract, making 93 starts in his first three years. But since, the injuries have begun to pile up. Hampton made 29 starts in 2004, 12 in 2005 and missed the entire 2006 season.

So Hampton seems to prove the idea that no pitcher, no matter how durable he appears, should get more than four years. Hampton was relatively healthy for that time, and since then has been a complete washout. And he’s still under contract for another two seasons.

For those who think that Coors ruined his mechanics causing the injuries, remember he was in Atlanta for a year and a half before his arm went, under the tutelage of Leo Mazzone, reputedly one of, if not the best pitching coach around.

At best, Zito remains what he is over the first four years of the contract. After that, all bets are off and the Giants are still on the hook for three, maybe four years. That’s at best. At worst, it becomes a Hampton level unmitigated disaster.

But is it worth it if he gets the Giants over the hump? The answer is a hesitant “yes”. However, is Barry Zito going to do that?

For teams like the Mets, Yankees, heck even someone like the Cardinals or Indians, that would be more of a possibility. But the Giants? C’mon.

The Giants replaced Jason Schimdt with Zito. Unless Zito improves dramatically, then that’s at best a lateral move and likely a downgrade from what they got last season:

Schmidt: 11-9, 3.59 ERA, 213.1 IP, 1.26 WHIP, 7.59 K/9, 2.25 K/BB, .89 HR/9, .86 GB/FB, .285 BABIP

Zito: 16-10, 3.83 ERA, 221 IP, 1.40 WHIP, 6.15 K/9, 1.53 K/BB, 1.10 HR/9, .84 GB/FB, .280 BABIP

According to those numbers, they were equal in GB/FB but Schmidt struck out more batters, and walked fewer thus correspondingly put up a better ERA.

That’s not to say I’d rather Schmidt next season than Zito because the latter is more likely to continue with numbers similar to 2006. Schmidt’s K rate has been on a decline, suggesting age is catching up with him.

However for the purpose of this comparison, we’re seeing if Zito of 2007 can out pitch Schmidt of 2006 by a substantial margin. Looking at these numbers, I’m going to say no.

The rotation other than that will be the same. Matt Cain has loads of potential and showed progress, so he’s fine. In fact he should improve. But that improvement will have to offset the fact Noah Lowry has stagnated and injuries may force him into an early decline and that Matt Morris is a bad pitcher who’s seen his peripherals drop every year. With the exception of 2005, when Morris’ walk rate dropped well below his norm (1.73/9, his next lowest are 2.04/9 and 2.25/9), he’s been fading since 2002.

The bullpen still stinks and the offense is even worse. Ray Durham is coming off a career year and can be expected to decline. The Giants next two top offensive players in 2006 were Barry Bonds, who’s OPS was buoyed by a huge OBP that will decline when pitchers realize he’s not the same player anymore and Moises Alou, now a Met. Alou has been replaced by Dave Roberts, a better version of Randy Winn offensively, but worse defensively.
Of course the Giants still have Randy Winn and his .324 OBP in right field. Omar Vizquel’s slightly above average production at SS remains. (though again he could fall apart at any moment) Fear not however because the Giants also have Pedro Feliz and Rich Aurilia at the corners and Bengie Molina behind the plate! That’s a playoff team there!

In a terrible NL last season, the Giants couldn’t even finish second in their division to get the wild card. Zito doesn’t make this team better; he allows it to be mediocre at best because that’s all it was last season.

So if Barry Zito isn’t going to get you over the hump in 2007 or 2008, then he isn’t worth paying 18 million for. Since he’s not a good bet in four or five years; no pitcher, not even Johan Santana is, it’s foolish to be committed to him for seven or eight years. Plus that exorbitant contract may hamstring the Giants financially for years to come.

Let’s look at this way; the Cubs spent millions this off season. They’ve no doubt brought in more talent than they had last season, but does that make them a real contender? Of course not, because they paid top dollar for second tier talent.

As I’ve said before, paying Barry Zito like an ace does not make him one. It also does not make Randy Winn become useful, Barry Bonds younger or Dave Roberts better in centerfield. (By the way, a flyball pitcher like Zito with that outfield? Oh boy… it’s great, if you love adventures on routine pop ups)

The Rockies thought they had bought their ace with Mike Hampton. The Rangers swore Chan Ho Park (and more recently Kevin Millwood) was the answer. Kevin Brown anyone? Long term contracts are generally more trouble than they’re worth, especially with pitchers.

So in December, the Giants management and their fans can toot their horns about how getting the big prize this off season makes them a contender. But like the Cubs and Alfonso Soriano, the reality promises to be much more sobering.

Just ask the Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers.