With one week to go, it’s all falling into place.

The AFC now has its top four spots locked up, though where those teams will fall is still up to much debate. Meanwhile in the wild card race, two 9-6 teams have emerged as clear favorites. Win (and both face inferior opponents in their final games) and they’re in.

However as we know, anything can happen in the NFL. So the other 8-7 teams are not done, though all will need help from some rather unlikely places. And all are wishing they played in the NFC, where they’d probably be in the postseason. This is especially true of the Chiefs, who went 4-0 against the NFC West this year.

So let’s get into the final AFC Report for the 2006 regular season. Next week it’s the AFC Playoff Preview!

Just like last week, you can find all the tie breaking rules at NFL.com. But here is the short form again:

Division: Head to head, Divisional Record, Common Opponents, Conference Record

Non Division: Head to Head, Conference Record, Common Opponents (min.4)

Three Way Ties: Separate for Division First, then Head to Head Sweeps (if applicable), Conference Record, Common Opponents (min. 4)

Looking Super: San Diego Chargers (13-2)

They took care of business against the Seahawks, in a game which ended up affecting the Chargers more than the Hawks, ironically enough. (Odd since the Bolts are now 13-2 and the Hawks 8-7, but that’s how bad the NFC is) The recent play of Phillip Rivers has to be a concern heading into the postseason, but make no mistake; this is the team to beat in the AFC. With L.T. and a solid defense they are going to be a tough out for anyone.

The Chargers clinch home field with either a win over the Cardinals or a Ravens loss to the Bills. Simple as can be.

Remaining Schedule: Ari

Bye Bye Birdies?: Baltimore Ravens (12-3)

In what apparently was a surprise to Vegas odds makers, the Ravens again blasted the Steelers Sunday. I’m still not sure why Pittsburgh was favored in the game. The Ravens did it with stifling defense and solid offensive play. No surprise there. I don’t think they’re any better than the Colts or Patriots, but that hardly matters now. We’ll see what happens come January.

The Ravens will need to win and hope the Chargers lose for home field. With a win they clinch the number 2 spot in the conference.

Remaining Schedule: Buf

Winning My Fantasy Championship: Indianapolis Colts (11-4)

If you read the post below, you know David and I won our Cheap Seats fantasy league, which every writer of this blog belongs to. We owe a large part of our victory to grabbing Ron Dayne this week, who thanks to the Colts run defense outscored LaDanian Tomlinson 28-14. We ended up winning 139-113. Can you say Ron Dayne, fantasy MVP? Or should it go to the Colts defense for not being able to stop anyone with a pulse on the ground?

The Colts can no longer get home field throughout. However with a win and Ravens loss, they can get a first round bye because of their better record against common opponents. With a loss and Patriots win, the Colts would fall to the four spot. So Indy could go any number of places this last week.

As an aside, special bragging rights go to Zach, whose lousy 3 win team managed to beat our team twice. Yes, we accounted for 67% of his wins this year. Once he was out, we knew the title was ours.

Remaining Schedule: Mia

This Close To Vinny: New England Patriots (11-4)

The Patriots received a scary moment Sunday when Tom Brady was hit hard and forced to come out temporarily. In stepped Matt Cassel, though one figures it would have been Vinny Testaverde in the long run.

That reason alone should be enough for Bill Belichick to bench Brady in this week’s game. The Patriots cannot get a first round bye. They could get the three seed, though there probably isn’t all that much difference between the five and six seeds at this point. So why risk injury? Don’t get me wrong, as a Jets fan, I’d love to see Brady start and get stepped on by Albert Haynesworth, thus having Vinny T awaiting Gang Green in a first round playoff match up (should the Jets get there).

Remaining Schedule: @Ten

Win and Get In: Denver Broncos (9-6)

It went without saying the Broncos had to beat the Bengals to have a good shot at the postseason. Well now they have, albeit by the skin of their teeth, and have taken their playoff lives completely into their own hands. With a finale against the Niners, Denver should be headed into the postseason, despite starting Jay Cutler down the stretch. He hasn’t been good, but he hasn’t been terrible either. More importantly, the Broncos got two lousy teams down and a Bengals team when Carson Palmer had a bad game. And the Bengals missed an extra point that would have tied it with under a minute to go.

But hey, it’s not like they reward teams that play hard schedules and lose because of bad luck. Win what’s in front of you, no matter how ugly. That’s what Denver has done and now will be rewarded for it.

The Broncos are in automatically with either a win or a Chiefs loss. The Chiefs are important because should they finished tied, KC would pass the Broncos based on a superior division record (4-2 to 3-3) and Denver would be eliminated.

Remaining Schedule: SF

J-E-T-S, JETS JETS JETS!!!!!!!!!!!: New York Jets (9-6)

Words can’t describe the euphoria I’m going through right now as a Jets fan. I believed the Jets would win going in, but I admit Cleo Lemon had me scared. After the botched punt, I thought “same old Jets.” But then Leon Washington made the play that saved the season. A 64 yard screen pass as the teams hit the two minute warning, made the win and playoffs all the more likely.

Knowing the Jets luck, they’ll get torched by Andrew Walter next week. But they should beat the Raiders, and if they do that, they’re in.

Should they lose, then the Jets would need a Bengals loss and: a Titans win or Jaguars loss. They would also make it if the Broncos and Jaguars both lose.

Bottom line, go out and beat the Raiders next week. Everything after that is gravy.

Remaining Schedule: Oak

Giving Away the Gimmes: Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)

When you lose a game due to a missed field goal, you cringe. But when you lose a game due to a missed extra point, well you’ve hit a new low.

The Bengals might literally fall one point short of the postseason now. They need to win the last week against the Steelers and then hope for a Jets loss. Or they could hope for a Chiefs win and Broncos loss. That would knock the Broncos behind the Chiefs in the AFC West. Matched up against the Chiefs or Jets, the Bengals would advance because of their superior conference record.

Remaining Schedule: Pit

Invincible? Not Quite: Tennessee Titans (8-7)

The Titans and Bills might have played the best game of the week Sunday and Vince Young rebounded from a sub par effort the week prior to keep the Titans’ slim playoff hopes alive for another week and officially end the Bills’.

I say slim because they need lots of help, i.e. multiple teams losing to make it. First they need the Bengals to lose the Steelers. If that happens, they’ll also need the Broncos to lose to the Niners and the Chiefs to beat the Jaguars. That would put the Chiefs ahead of Denver and give the Titans a spot by virtue of a superior conference record.

Remaining Schedule: NE

In Serious Trouble: Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)

The Jaguars gave a good effort Sunday against the Pats but fell short. In the end however, it will be their loss to the Titans via three defensive touchdowns and getting swept by the lowly Texans which will be the real reason the Jaguars have likely played themselves out of the postseason.
They’re not done but they have a hard road. With their loss to New England, the Jags now need the Jets, Titans and Bengals all to lose in order to make it. And they also need to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead first.

Of course given how unpredictable the Jaguars season has been, why not?

Remaining Schedule: @KC

Almost Done: Kansas City Chiefs (8-7)

They staved elimination with a solid performance on the road against the Raiders last Saturday, but to call the Chiefs a long shot is an understatement.

The Chiefs thanks to a miserable 4-7 conference record are pretty much finished. However if the Broncos lost (against the Niners, not likely) the Chiefs would pass them due to superior division record. They would then still need the Bengals and Titans to lose however to make the playoffs as the six seed. Not impossible, but not particularly likely.

Remaining Schedule: Jac

See You In 2007: Buffalo Bills (7-8), Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8)

A tale of two seasons when you look at these teams with the same record. The Bills’ year should be heralded as a success considering most had them as one of the worst teams in the league. With the development of JP Losman into an average quarterback, this team could be one to watch in 2007, if they can get some help up the middle on the defensive side. Another option opposite Lee Evans wouldn’t hurt either, since Peerless Price is getting up there.

The Steelers season will no doubt be a disappointment. However with a win over the Bengals Sunday, they’ll end their rivals’ season for the second straight year. It’s not much, but that would be a little consolation for the Steel crew after such an injury plagued 2006 campaign.