Baseball is back.

Despite the fact I’ve been watching spring training games here and there, and our fantasy baseball draft is Saturday night, it still seems surprising that the season actually begins Sunday. But I’m ready for the boys of summer to usher in the spring. And what better way to get ready for that, than with some baseball previews.

The first division I’ll look at is the most expensive one in baseball, the American League East. It of course features the highest payroll in the game with the Yankees (though they’re cheaper than normal), the second most in the Red Sox and an up and coming high paying squad in the Toronto Blue Jays. It also features two teams that nobody expects to do anything in the Orioles and D-Rays.

The format of this preview is slightly different from last year’s in that I’ve gone in reverse order, worst to first. Also included are my guesses at the team’s record, and a one liner on the team in question, in addition to the pluses, minuses and bottom line.

So will I recycle the same preview everyone else has? Are the Sox good enough to end the Yankees run? What of the Jays? Is there any hope for the Rays?

Read on to find out. We start with a little bit of a shock.

5. Baltimore Orioles- Expected Record- 72-90

Valentine’s View: “With Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen, the Orioles should lead the league… in average time of game.”

Rockin Leo: The upside with the Orioles these days seems to revolve around pitching coach Leo Mazzone, rather than any one specific player. The idea is that he’ll harness the wild stuff of Cabrera and Loewen, molding them into solid middle of the rotation pitchers. The good news is the stuff is there for both and Cabrera especially has the K rate of an ace. Guys with whiff rates that good tend to see an improvement in their numbers or a decline in their stuff, so if Cabrera keeps missing bats, he should be a good one. It would be nice if Eric Bedard had some help on the mound.

On offense, Nick Markasis was rushed to the show last year. However he played well and is definitely a big piece of the Orioles’ future. Miguel Tejada is still one of the best offensive shortstops in the game and Ramon Hernandez one of the best catchers. The bullpen is more expensive than last year, and would be hard pressed to be worse than the crew that made it up in 2006.

Boo Birds Take I: Cabrera or Loewen each could take a big step forward, but expecting both to? That’s hard to see. The offense is the worst in the division as outside of the big three, they’ve got the likes of Aubrey Huff, Jay Payton a declining Melvin Mora and middling Jay Gibbons. But hey, who doesn’t like Brian Roberts?

The pen will be better, but that’s not saying much. Chad Bradford is a nice addition but they paid a lot for a 36 year old Jaime Walker. Chris Ray opened lots of eyes last year closing games, but his low K/BB sends up a big red flag. Think Derrick Turnbow from ’05-‘06.

Not So High Flying: The Orioles have lots of holes everywhere. Sure the rotation has tons of upside, but unless Cabrera and Loewen both have huge years, that won’t mean much. Even if they do, where are the runs coming from? Talent wise, this is the worst team in the division by far.

4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays- Expected Record: 81-81

Valentine’s View: “Go ahead and sleep on the Rays; they’re going to wake a lot of people up this season.”

Batting Around: Not a misprint. I believe the Devil Rays will make a Huge leap forward this year. The catalyst behind that is the offense which will be fearsome top to bottom. The outfield is one of the best in baseball, with Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford and the bat tossing Delmon Young. The infield isn’t spectacular but Jorge Cantu/Ty Wigginton will be okay on the right side. Jonny Gomes is back from injury and let’s not forget BJ Upton could slot in somewhere on that infield.

The rotation will be better than people think. Scott Kazmir is a legit ace and might be the best pitcher in the division when all is said and done. The potential break out candidate on the Rays is Jaime Shields, who posted an excellent K rate at AAA and the majors last year. His ERA wasn’t spectacular, but that was largely due to an unlucky BABIP and above average HR rate. Jae Seo is a solid fourth and Casey Fossum is ever tantalizing as three/four if he could ever get his control straightened out.

But They’re the Rays: And they still are Tampa in the pen. Seth McClung is sort of the closer, but don’t expect a guy who walked more than he struck out last year as a fly ball pitcher to last long in the role. Relief will be a problem and will hold them back from making serious noise.

The rotation is far from a sure thing. Kazmir is an injury risk, Seo can be up or down. Fossum still hasn’t utilized his potential despite his encouraging K rate and Shields has a half year of big league experience. On offense, the infield has questions at third in import Akinori Iwamura and Ben Zobrist at short.

Sleepers?: I really think the D-Rays are going to surprise people this year. They don’t have the horses in the staff and are probably one great bat away from competing with the top three teams in the division. That being said, getting near the .500 mark would be a huge step forward for this franchise.

3. Toronto Blue Jays: Expected Record: 89-73

Valentine’s View: “T- minus 30 days until AJ Burnett’s elbow/shoulder/appendix blows.”

All is Wells: The Jays had a potential volatile situation on their hands with Vernon Wells heading to free agency after this year. But they managed to lock the 28 year old center fielder up to an extension. The centerpiece of an excellent offense, Wells will combine with Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay and the newly acquired Frank Thomas. Toronto was one of the top AL hitting teams last year without Thomas; they have very few easy outs in their lineup.

The rotation has a solid top; in fact it’s hard to be better than Roy Halladay and AJ Burnett. They added names this offseason in an undervalued Toma Ohka and some decent backend guys in John Thomson and Victor Zambrano. Their pen has some good arms, led by BJ Ryan.

Boo Birds, Take II: The lineup has some scary faces, but features a lot of slap hitters. Aaron Hill, Reed Johnson; these are guys who can hit for average but are devoid of power. Thomas wasn’t named the “Big Hurt” because of his brittleness, but it has become a legitimate running joke for years now. In addition the Rogers Centre played very favorable to hitters last year; all of the key Jays were much better at home than the road. If the park plays more neutral this year, the offense will suffer.

The rotation is a question mark in lots of places. Burnett has his injury issues and Halladay seems to alternate between healthy and injury plagued seasons. Ohka would have been better served on an NL team, and Zambrano and Thomson can only help so much. Their other option is Josh Towers and that’s uh… not good. Also Ryan is not repeating his 2006.

View from the Perch: I’d have loved to rank the Jays higher, but they have a lot of brittle players on their team. Their margin for error will be small and I don’t think everything breaks right for them.

2. Boston Red Sox: Expected Record: 94-68

Valentine’s View: “The Evil Empire Lite”

Seeing Red:There has been mucho praise and mucho criticism regarding the Red Sox offseason. But people tend to misplace what the Sox have done right and wrong. For example, they were right about Daisuke Matsuzaka, but wrong about JD Drew who’s excellent on base skills and power will give the Sox a lineup that extends further than Manny Ramirez. They were wrong on Jonathan Papelbon being moved to the bullpen as being useful but are right in that Julio Lugo will help them offensively.

The Sox lineup will be improved. Coco Crisp is better than he showed last season. Ramirez hopefully will be healthy the full year and Drew will look good for the Sox. Kevin Youkilis is a year older and more experienced. The rotation is stronger with Josh Beckett likely bouncing back (his HR/FB rate was waaaay above normal) and Matsuzaka.

Put A Sox In It: The Sox are still hurting themselves by NOT playing David Ortiz at first since Ramirez and Drew could both use time at the DH. Jason Varitek is in the decline. The rotation after the three spot is a question. Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball is unpredictable and who knows what is going to happen with Jon Lester.

The Sox pen is still a question. People keep saying Papelbon is going to save them; what happens when he gets overworked again? He’s a major injury concern; that’s why they wanted to move him to the rotation in the first place. What else does Boston have? A declining Mike Timlin? Joel Piniero?

Who’s Seeing Red?: My guess, everyone except the Yankees. The Sox have a strong enough rotation and a deep enough line up to be one of the best teams in baseball. But are they strong enough to overtake the Yankees? That I doubt.

1. New York Yankees: Expected record: 101-61

Valentines’ View: “The Empire Strikes Back”

The Death Stars: As usual the Yankees lineup looks unstoppable. It has a one major hole; at first base where Doug Mienkiewicz will stink with Josh Phelps. Outside of that, their lineup will be Damon, Jeter, A-Rod, Giambi, Matsui, Abreu, Posada and Cano. The lowest OPS out of those guys might be .800. (Well maybe an older Posada will be sub .800)
I’ve been proven wrong with Chien Ming Wang, as he is a solid major league pitcher. I think his K rate does need to rise for him to be considered better than say, Jake Westbrook, but he’s good. Mike Mussina had a resurgence last year and will be solid again. Andy Pettitte likely has one year left. Carl Pavano, if healthy will be a good fifth starter.

The bullpen has its questions, but no more than anyone else’s. Well until Joe Torre blows out everyone’s arm by August 15th.

A New Hope?: The Yankees are old in the rotation outside of Wang; so it’s possible they get nailed with the injury bug. The bullpen will get overworked; they always are.

And on offense; uh… maybe A-Rod gets hit in the head by a beer bottle from an angry fan, stumbles into Derek Jeter, breaking his leg, and when Robby Cano comes over he’s hit by a falling by the chunk of an debris from a crumbling Yankee stadium. Other than that, there’s almost no way the Yankees aren’t the top offensive team in the game.

As Much as I HATE to admit it: Brian Cashman has halted the Yankees decline and turned them into the best team in baseball. The lineup is ridiculous and the staff, while boasting no aces, has lots of two/three type pitchers. Quantity is sometimes better than quality.

The Yankees are the favorite for the World Series. I can dream that it won’t happen though, right?