Remember the Maine?
Listed in:Unless you’ve been living under a rock the last two months, you know the biggest question around the New York Mets heading into the 2007 season has centered around the team’s starting rotation. With Pedro Martinez on the shelf until at least August and their top two starters both over 40, it’s been common place to suggest the Metropolitians are in trouble because they are relying on relatively young, unproven pitchers to fill in slots 3-5 in their rotation.
In turn there’s been lots of debate on who the Mets should be relying on to have a breakthrough and stabilize the starting staff. If you’ve read this site before, then you know my pick is lefty Oliver Perez, who I’ve been high on since they acquired him back at the trade deadline last year. However the more popular pick among the fan base and media (especially sports talk radio) has been soon to be 26 year old righty John Maine.
Maine of course was acquired with Jorge Julio for Kris Benson in what can only be categorized as a steal these days for the Mets. He wasn’t seen as much heading into spring training in 2006, but emerged mid season as one of the key members in a piecemeal starting staff that would carry the Mets to within one game of the World Series.
His 3.60 ERA last season (opposed to say Perez’ 6.55 one) is clearly what has so many people optimistic. While Perez’ 2006 season was a washout short of that phenomenal game 7 performance, Maine was a solid pitcher for most of his time with the Mets. As a result, many expect 2007 to be Maine’s chance to break out in his first full season and in turn, help save the Mets rotation.
A glance at the projection systems tell a different story. Now I doubt most mainstream commentators actually look at what Bill James thinks, but he, the Marcel, ZiPS and CHONE systems all expect a large regression for the righty. Here are the four, which can be found easily on Maine’s stats page at Baseball Fan Graphs:
James: 7-7, 4.36 ERA, 130 IP, 1.42 WHIP, 7.06 K/9, 1.92 K/BB, 1.18 HR/9
CHONE: 3.89 ERA, 155 IP, 1.35 WHIP, 7.20 K/9, 1.94 K/BB, 1.05 HR/9
Marcel: 6-6, 4.20 ERA, 105 IP, 1.30 WHIP, 6.94 K/9, 1.93 K/BB, 1.37 HR/9
ZiPS: 11-9, 4.38 ERA, 159 IP, 1.38 WHIP, 6.62 K/9, 1.70 K/BB, 1.13 HR/9
CHONE is the most optimistic ERA wise, suggesting Maine won’t have too bad a set back in this next season. However the others believe Maine is going to be a fourth starter, tops, in 2007. Interestingly enough, they all pretty much agree on the peripherals, the difference is usually what they expect his HR/9 to be. ZiPS is the only one that sees a substantial drop in his peripherals.
I’d love to say I disagree with them and pick reasons why, but I can’t. They say exactly what I’ve been thinking since I took a look back at Maine’s 2006 numbers earlier in the off season:
2006: 6-5, 3.60 ERA, 90.0 IP, 1.13 WHIP, 7.10 K/9, 2.15 K/BB, 1.50 HR/9, .228 BABIP, .80 GB/FB, 12.6 HR/FB%,
Those who look at the stat BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) see the problem. In 90 innings, opponents managed just a .228 average on balls put into play against Maine. The league average is around .290.
It is important to realize that pitchers tend not to have the greatest of say on their BABIP. Even the best of arms, like Johan Santana, fall in the average. (For the record, Santana’s was .281 last year)
At first glance it would seem Maine’s HR rate is high, which would say maybe he was unlucky on balls leaving the yard. However, his HR/FB % was 12.6%. The normal tends to fluctuate around 10- 11%. So yes, it was high, but not obscene. Even if you want to suggest it should be lower than “average” because of ball park, the odds are it’s not dropping enough to make up for the rise in BABIP he’s almost guaranteed to see in 2007.
The other reason I’m not high on Maine topping his 2006 is because his minor league numbers seem to be in line with what the projections are offering up. Here are his last three minor league stints in AAA, two with Ottawa, and a shorter one with Norfolk in 2006: (courtesy of the Baseball Cube)
2004: 5-7, 3.91 ERA, 119.2 IP, 1.46 WHIP, 7.90 K/9, 2.02 K/BB, .90 HR/9
2005: 6-11, 4.53 ERA, 128.1 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 7.78 K/9, 2.64 K/BB, .91 HR/9
2006: 3-5, 3.49 ERA, 56.2 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 7.62 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, .32 HR/9
Disregard the ERAs and look at everything else; it’s pretty similar. At his best, Maine looks to be a mid 7.00’s K rate type of guy with decent control that borders on acceptable for a fly ball pitcher. (You like to see at least 2.50 K/BB, but you can be a serviceable big leaguer with it below) In the bigs you’d hope that translates into him being a solid #3 and maybe even a #2 should he get that control better. However, it’s hard to suggest a big leap forward for 2007, when it appears BB/9 will still be an issue.
Where I do think the projection systems err is with IP. The highest one, ZiPS, puts him at 159.0 IP, which wouldn’t be enough to qualify for the innings title. Consider that the Mets worst regular starter, Steve Trachsel pitched 164.2 IP last year. And when I say worst, Trachsel was one of the five worst pitchers in all of baseball. The odds are fairly good Maine will be significantly better than that. Plus, even last year when he battled some finger problems and sporadic usage thanks to the Mets love affair with crafty veterans, Maine still threw 146.2 innings. In other words, the Mets can probably look for around 170 innings worth of 4.20-4.40 ERA baseball from Maine in 2007.
While that is hard to justify as being the savior to the Mets rotation, those numbers are not bad. If he does pitch to that, there’s no reason Maine couldn’t win 14 games for the Mets this season. Last year that would have made him the Mets second most valuable starter. There is something to be said about guys who can give you a league average ERA and throw a fair share of innings. Heck it got Gil Meche $55 million this offseason.
So in short, Mets fans should not expect John Maine to be Pedro Martinez in 2007. But if expectations are tempered a bit, they’ll see he’s still a valuable member to have in the rotation.
Let’s put it this way; the odds are good Maine would have been better this year than Kris Benson, and that was before the latter tore up his shoulder.
Comments
I don't know, expecting Maine to win 14 games is expecting the Mets offense to carry a couple of those. Isn't Beltran likely for a small decline, and Alou as well? That could stunt the Mets offense somewhat.
Posted by: pacino | March 2, 2007 1:19 PM
Run support is impossible to predict; Trachsel won 15 games last year, most on the staff. He was their worst pitcher.
Beltran could decline in that he probably won't be an MVP caliber player like last year. (A lot of things like Win Shares has him as valuable if not more so than Pujols and far more valuable than Howard) But he should still be a solid 30 homer .270/.360/.490 type guy on the low end. Alou has shown no real decline yet. With him it's just a matter of games played. Since Cliff Floyd was injured and bad in 2006, it will be near impossible for Alou to contribute less.
I'll probably do a full look at the Mets soon, but the area where you're going to see fall off is second base. Jose Valentin will NOT produce at the level he did last year. That has fluke written all over it. Other than that the biggest question on the Mets offense will be catcher, where LoDuca is going to regress this season considering his age and history.
Sorry that was a long winded answer; the Mets offense will probably be comparable to last season, meaning if Maine has a 4.20 ERA he definitely has a shot at 14 wins.
Posted by: Ben Valentine | March 2, 2007 11:44 PM
Saluti..
voi fatto fresco e nuovo lavoro ..
Ci era un alberino e un autore debba faccia fotografia corsi .
Neolaureati conferenze danza palinsesto servizi puo lapprendimento tecniche ict certificazione per formazione i sociali dimostrazioni foreste office!
E .... Noi non poteva scelga sconosciuto soddisfare circa corsi di formazione.
Ammetta quello surf male :-\
Posted by: SMILASOISE | September 1, 2007 8:39 PM