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NL Central Preview 2007

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Previously on Sportszilla, Ben previewed the American League East and the National League East.

The National League’s Central division is like the Brady Bunch. The Cardinals are Greg, clearly the favorites, and, on the surface, the most talented of the group, but you can’t look at ‘em too long, otherwise your eyes start burning. The Cubs are Marcia, the popular second favorite and rival to Greg, but I can't shake the feeling they’re just an empty shell. The Brewers are Jan, on the surface not all that remarkable, but even though she couldn’t dance, I think they’ll prove, just like Eve Plumb, how talented they are. The Reds are Peter, well-meaning and, in a best-case scenario, capable of bagging the model, so to speak, but probably destined to keep looking up at the more mature siblings. The Astros are Cindy, so cute and plucky that she makes you forgive her dearth of discernible acting skills. The Pirates are Bobby, necessary for symmetry, but that’s about it.

Here we go! Worst to first!

PITTSBURGH/Bobby
The Good
Jason Bay is awesome. True story: Last season, I went to a Pirates-Giants game in San Francisco with a lady friend, and we ran into two guys outside the ballpark who were wearing Giants caps, but also yellow three-quarter sleeve baseball undershirts with “38” and “Bay” written on the white parts in Sharpie. My lady friend (not my special lady) asked why they were wearing the shirts, and they told us they just couldn’t help themselves because Jason Bay rules. People were giving them high fives and hugs. Good times.

The Bad
Beyond Bay, the picture ain’t pretty. Freddy Sanchez’s offensive value is too dependent on batting average to expect him to repeat last season’s production. Ronny Paulino is still a couple years away, if he’ll ever make good. Chris Duffy is looking like he’ll end up as the destitute man’s Carl Crawford, which doesn’t sound too bad at first, but Randy Winn has been in the majors for a few years already, and look how that’s turned out. As for the pitching, Ian Snell doesn’t have much more time to put it all together. There are dozens of guys just like Zach Duke, and none of them foist finger paintings on the world. I really like Tom Gorzellany’s chances, but he’s probably a season or two away.

The Sanjaya Singing a Rock Classic
Xavier Nady’s ship has sailed. Nate McLouth’s boat requires more duct tape than can be procured in a week. Tony Armas is just another guy in the rotation. Jose Bautista is struggling to get passing grades on the Jose Valentin career plan. And Salomon Torres is the closer.

HOUSTON/Cindy
The Good
Lance Berkman might be the best player in MLB who is still criminally underrated. Consider that the man has a career OPS+ of 149, that he hasn’t had an OBP below .388 in his career, that before his knee injury he was a solid enough outfielder to play one season as his team’s primary center fielder, that last year Albert Pujols had 150 Runs Created and Berkman was second in the NL with 142, and that he’s still only thirty-one years old. Carlos Lee isn’t that good, but he’s still going to contribute this season. For now, at least, El Caballo will complement Berkman nicely in the Houston lineup. Not much needs to be said about Roy Oswalt. His strikeouts have declined the past two seasons, but so have his walks. There’s no reason to worry about him. Say what you will about Brad Lidge, but I think he’s likely to rebound since his strikeout ability never left him, and, with Chad Qualls and Dan Wheeler, the bullpen will become a monster once again.

The Bad
Adam Everett is a historically good defensive shortstop. Adam Everett is an awful hitter. Put it together, and you get a guy who’s worth having around, but whose greatest value might be derived from being positioned next to an Aramis Ramirez type of third baseman, one who can’t field a lick, but who swings the big stick. Unfortunately, while Morgan Ensberg is pretty damn good with the leather himself, there’s no telling what he’ll bring at the plate; he somehow walked over 100 times last season, but Ensberg suffers from the same contact issues Adam Dunn does without demonstrating the same level of consistency in the other aspects of hitting. Remember that three seasons ago Ensberg hit 275/330/411. Yikes. Don’t expect to see anything close to the monster 283/388/557 line he put up in 2005. He’s older than Berkman, and I worry about his capacity to put up a 240/320/430 line in a given season.

The Darryl Talley
Chris Burke is slated to start in center field; this could be a Franklin Stubbs-level disaster. (For you whippersnappers, that's the same thing as a Todd Hundley-level disaster.) Last Thursday, I took my dad to the Mariners-Giants exhibition game, and I tried explaining to him the suckiness that is Willie Bloomquist, but failed to capture the full horror. I figure something similar is happening in Houston, and that’s why Brad Ausmus is still on the roster. Quick, get a master explainer on the case! The rotation after Oswalt is pretty embarrassing, too.

CINCINNATI/Peter
The Good
Aaron Harang should be considered a threat to win the Cy Young, but because he’s an unassuming guy, his strikeout numbers go unrecognized. At worst, Bronson Arroyo will be solid. Edwin Encarnacion could be great, and he could be okay. At the plate, I think he’ll best half the league’s third basemen, which isn’t bad for a twenty-four year old, and 270/350/470 is nothing to sneeze at, regardless.

The Bad
In retrospect, this team could be FAR better than it is right now. Time travel with me to before the 2006 season. Trading Sean Casey for a bag of dirty socks would have been fine. Then, instead of trading Wily Mo Peña for Arroyo, they could have kept Peña in left field, had Griffey in center, Kearns in right, and put Dunn at first base, where he wouldn’t be as likely to be an ongoing fielding debacle. Once Griffey had his inevitable injury, Ryan Freel could have stepped in to center, with Brandon Phillips at second teaming with Felipe Lopez at short, or Kearns could have slid over to center with Chris Denorfia taking over right field. With that core lineup in place, the team could have taken its chances on bidding for second-tier free agent pitchers the likes of Matt Morris. Remember, also, that Bronson Arroyo was considered in that same second tier at the time. Instead, Wayne Krivsky decided Scott Hatteberg needed to extend his career, that the team was better served running Dunn out to left field every day to negate most of his tremendous hitting abilities with atrocious defense, and that, by golly, relief pitching should cost a premium of everyday position players. Now, the bullpen is still in disarray, Dunn still sucks in the field, Kearns, Peña, and Lopez are plying their trades elsewhere, and it’s a perfectly defensible position that all three of those ex-Reds would represent upgrades if they returned.

The Chris Kaman
Eric Milton, Kyle Lohse, Kirk Saarloos. Ladies and gentlemen, the back end of the Reds’ rotation! For an encore, David Weathers and Mike Stanton. The Reds’ best relievers!

CHICAGO/Marcia
The Good
Carlos Zambrano is fantastic. Rich Hill has a huge upside, even if he’s likely to merely be better than decent this year. Derrek Lee should bounce back to at least his 2000-2004 levels after last season was lost to personal hardship and injury. If last season’s outfield experiment is any indication, Alfonso Soriano probably won’t suck in center field, which means his defense won’t be a detriment. However, the Cubs can still use all the offense they can get, because…

The Bad
Jacque Jones really shouldn’t be starting. A sub-.300 OBP is not an unreasonably pessimistic projection for the Jacquester. I really believe Cliff Floyd, gimpy and all, should outproduce Jones, and besides, Jones would still get at bats in place of Matt Murton against particularly tough righties. Furthermore, Cesar Izturis should be in the “utility infielder” phase of baseball life by now and, despite his defense, is probably hurting the team more than Everett hurts the Astros. Aramis Ramirez is a very good hitter, but, again, his lack of facility with the leather chomps a big chunk out of his value. Mark DeRosa? Really? Adding everything up, there’s a lot of okay-ness on offense after Sori/DLee/Aramis. While closer Ryan Dempster is tough to stomach, the bullpen does have a host of intriguing arms. The only problem is that not one is what insiders call “dominant”, or “nasty”. In other words, there’s quantity, but the high end quality is certainly lacking.

The Calvin Booth (aka the Tall Black John Kerry)
Hide the children and the faint of heart. Chicago desperately needs either Mark Prior or Kerry Wood to come back and pitch reasonably well, otherwise they’ve committed to sending Jason Marquis to the mound every fifth day.

ST. LOUIS/Greg
The Good
Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball. Scott Rolen could still be the best third baseman in baseball, especially after accounting for defense. Chris Carpenter is one of the league’s legit aces. Nobody else in the division, or possibly even the entire NL, has this kind of across the board top end talent.

The Bad
The Cards start the season with questions in the bullpen and an extremely thin bench. With Kip Wells and Braden Looper bringing up the back of the rotation, the pen will need to be tough. The problem is Jason Isringhausen can’t be trusted to get through a whole season intact, so, with Adam Wainwright in the rotation, closing duties could eventually fall on Russ Springer. As far as the bench, Aaron Miles and So Taguchi have no business on an MLB roster, though Juan Encarnacion could be useful (I guess). The greatest injustice, though, is that Preston Wilson is relegated to bench duty because…

The Willie McGee
Scott Freaking Spiezio is slated to be the starting right fielder. Let that sink in for a moment. How is Scott Spiezio a better bet than Preston Wilson? Last year, Spiezio hit 272/366/496 in 276 at bats. For reference, Carlos Lee’s career line is 286/340/495. In 2002, Spiezio hit 285/371/436 as Anaheim’s full time first baseman. Those are the only two years the Sandfrog has outhit what you can reasonably expect from Wilson this year: 260/330/460. Then take into account that it was in 2005, two seasons ago, that Spiezio put up a fluky-horrible 064/137/149 in 47 at bats for Seattle. For virtually every other can’t-run mediocre-fielding corner infielder on the wrong side of thirty, that would be a ticket to Retirementland, but St. Louis gambled last year and got a straight on the river. Wilson is a year and a half younger, a better outfield defender, and likely to be just as good, if not easily better, than Spiezio at the plate. With Yadier Molina, David Eckstein, and Chris Duncan’s tottering defense providing a sum of zero production at three positions, and with no room for error in the rotation, starting Spiezio over Wilson is the kind of decision that could cripple the Cards’ pennant run.

MILWAUKEE/Jan
The Good
Prince Fielder and Bill Hall are the pillars of the lineup. This is the year I think Fielder makes the leap and puts up David Wright-esque numbers, and I also think Hall, who is smack dab in the middle of his prime, will hit nearly as well as he did last year. Put me down for a 300/370/540 season from Fielder, and a 280/350/500 season from Hall. You know what you’re getting from Johnny Estrada and Geoff Jenkins: professional competence. Corey Hart has shown in limited playing time that he can bring the pain. In fact, [insert “sunglasses at night” reference]. Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, Dave Bush, and Claudio Vargas will compete with the Padres for best rotation in the league. Their 2006 K/9 figures are sweet: 9.85, 7.08, 7.11, and 6.60, respectively. That’s a lot of punchouts. For comparison, Curt Schilling struck out 8.07 per nine last season, Jason Schmidt struck out 7.59, and Dontrelle Willis struck out 6.45. Wow.

The Bad
I think Rickie Weeks can be a solid hitter at the major league level. However, he can’t afford to melt down on defense the way he did for an extended period last year and expect to keep his job. If he doesn’t develop into a solid hitter, and quickly, then I wouldn’t be surprised to see Doug Melvin pull the plug on Weeks, trade for a third baseman, and move Tony Graffanino to his more natural position at second. Baltimore may want to move Melvin Mora. Kansas City could be willing to part with Mark Teahen. There are real possibilities.

The Bob Uecker’s Stalker
Sheets. Fielder. Hall. If any of the three regress (Prince and Bill) or get injured and have to miss a lot of time (Ben), the Brew Crew will be relying on the likes of JJ Hardy to step up and fill the void, which is not the fun kind of proposition. If two of the three go down, then it’ll be time to start coming up with trick plays for Carlyle Holiday.

See also: Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, MLB, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals

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