Welcome to the National League East, the division of talkers.

Or at least that’s the case in Philadelphia, where Jimmy Rollins is saying his Phillies are the team to beat in the division. Sure why not, right? Well I’ve got lots of reasons we’ll get to. However, every team has flaws and the best team in baseball likely will not be found here. That being said, the division has a good chance of getting two teams into the playoffs this year. So who will it be? Read on to find out.

Like AL East Preview, I’m taking it in reverse order; the worst teams are listed first and we work our way up. Adds a little bit of suspense if you like those things in these preview columns. Each team has my guess at their record, a short one liner that sums up what I think about the team, then their positives, negatives and final thoughts.

So let’s get started with the unquestioned worst team in the division.

5. Washington Nationals: Expected Record 70- 92
Valentine’s View: “How many times can I mention John Patterson in one preview?”

The Washington Spin: They uh… have one pitcher… John Patterson. And uh… one really good hitter… Nick Johnson. They’ve got an up and comer in Ryan Zimmerman. Oh and Jim Bowden has a great farm system in Wayne Krivsky’s Cincinnati Reds. See Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns and don’t forget former top relief prospect Ryan Wagner.

Plus Manny Acta seems to have a good head on his shoulders, favoring on base percentage and things other than small ball. In other words, Ryan Church might finally be open on someday other than Sunday.

Nationals Deficit: Their two best players are injury prone. Patterson missed most of last season and has struggled with injuries. Nick Johnson broke his leg after actually nearly playing a whole season last year. As payback, he hasn’t healed yet and no one knows for sure when he’ll be back. In Church, Kearns, Zimmerman and Lopez, the Nationals have the start of a decent lineup. The problem is they’ve also got Nook Logan, Cristian Guzman, Dmitri Young, Brian Schneider.

Chad Cordero is a solid closer but the rest of the staff is bereft of talent. Can you name a starter after Patterson? I can; Jerome Williams, former Giants/Cubs bust. He’s looking like their two.

Court's Verdict: The Nats have some talent, and Acta will likely play the best players so I expect them to do better than if say “Small ball” Frank Robinson were running the show. But the rotation is a mess, the offense is the worst in the division and the other three teams are much better than the Nats. In the central, they might have gotten to 75 or 76 wins. With 19 games each against the Mets, Phillies, Braves and Marlins, 70 wins is asking a lot.

4. Florida Marlins: Projected Record: 76- 86
Valentine’s View: “Young players will break your heart.”

Reel In The “W”s: The Marlins were expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball last year. I disagreed, because of all their excellent prospects. Now many think the Marlins are a scary force. I disagree. Why? We’ll get to that later. This is the good section.

They have two anchors; Miguel Cabrera, the best young player in baseball and Dontrelle Willis, one of the better arms in the game. Josh Willingham found a position in 2006 and was solid contributor. Miguel Olivo went from useless roster fodder to good catcher. Hanley Ramirez put up near identical numbers to Jose Reyes last year in his rookie campaign. Dan Uggla was the best second baseman not named Chase Utley.

The pitching staff was excellent. Josh Johnson was near the top of the ERA race until injuries cost him a shot at the title. Scott Olsen has a live arm and impressed last season. Annibal Sanchez took the world by storm. In the pen, they have nothing but hard throwing young arms.

The Big Catch: Now the downside. All of those players are nice stories, but few can be expected to repeat. Sure Cabrera is a near lock, but Uggla has shown no prior history to suggest he had the ability he displayed last year. He might be solid, but likely won’t be what he was last year. Ramirez had struggled in 2005 at AA. Like Reyes, he burst upon the scene when finally called up. Reyes had struggles in his second and third seasons, I expect regression for Ramirez.

In the rotation, Johnson is already hurt; with a forearm injury that reminds me an awful lot of what cost John Patterson most of 2006. Sanchez’s peripherals (low K/BB, nearly a fly ball pitcher) say his ERA was fluky last season. Willis is up and down. Olsen has the stuff, but he is still a kid. The pen is full of kids and their closer is Armando Benitez lite, Jorge Julio.

The Final Measurements: Expect regression across the board from this Marlins team. Next year is when this team has a real good shot of coming together.

3. Philadelphia Phillies: Expected Record- 81-81

Valentine’s View: “When did Freddy Garcia/Adam Eaton/Jaime Moyer become Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine?”

Brotherly Love: Brent Myers and Cole Hamels form a dynamic duo; they have the potential to be the top 1-2 punch in the division. The offense is powerful, with Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and yes, Pat the Bat. Meanwhile Wes Helms should be an upgrade over Abraham Nunez at third. In the pen, Ryan Madsen has the look of a very good set up man. They’ll need him to be.

Ready Your D Batteries: The rotation is the most overrated in baseball. It’s amazing that people kill the Mets for having old pitchers and inconsistent young players when the Phillies rotation features old man Jaime Moyer (no K fly ball pitcher in Citizen’s Bank. Why worry?) Freddie Garcia, whose best season in the last three years was an exceedingly mediocre one last year in Chicago. Again, fly ball pitcher in Citizen’s Bank. And Adam Eaton? Did people look at what Eaton did last year? They’d have been better off with Randy Wolf.

The bullpen is garbage outside of Madsen, literally. “Flash” Gordon (or as my college buddy Aaron and I frequently called him “Trash”) had a great resurgence last year, but was hurt at times and is 39. He posted a K rate far better than his last year in NY. At his age, expect tremendous regression.

The Phillies offense is good, but people expect far too much of Shane Victorino, Aaron Rowand and Helms. When did Rod Barajas (.708 OPS in Arlington) become Mike Piazza? He is 31 and entering the decline phase.

Let’s also not forget manager Charlie Manuel, who was brilliant enough to bench Burrell, his fourth best offensive player last year in favor of Jeff Conine and Jose Hernandez. But… he needed Abraham Nunez’ defense at 3rd base! Without question, Manuel is the worst manager in the division.

Always the Bridesmaid: Every year the Phillies are the team. Last year people picked them to be better than the Mets and the Braves. Every year the same people fall in love with the mediocre starters, think they’ll score a ton of runs and believe in an bullpen which will no doubt get over worked and isn’t very good to start with.

The Phillies have talent, but they’re top heavy. Good at the top of the rotation, good at the top of the lineup but questions with limited upside everywhere else. Half a team gets around .500

The real question is does Aaron refer to Gordon as “Trash” in his girlfriend’s (a Phillies Phan) presence.

2. Atlanta Braves: Expected Record- 86-76
Valentine’s View: “The Best Offense in the National League.”

The Tomahawk Chop: I mean what I said there. The Braves and Mets were neck and neck last season in runs scored per game. What you love about the Braves offense is that they have young players who are only going to get better in Jeff Francoeur (if he only learns to take a walk) and the very underrated Brian McCann, who should have gotten some MVP votes last year. Chipper Jones was filthy good last season, posting a 1.005 OPS. Kelly Johnson will be an upgrade over Marcus Giles. Andruw Jones is still really, really good. Edgar Renteria is an above average shortstop offensively.

The rotation still has John Smoltz, and the emerging Chuck James. Kyle Davies, if given an extended look, could surprise. (He was horribly unlucky last year) The pen was awful last season; it has to improve. Much to Zach’s dismay, I expect Rafael Soriano to be the Braves closer by next season at the latest.

Ooohoo Nooo!: The problem is ironically enough, with the pitching. Smoltz was amazing last season. Can we expect that again? James is due for regression; he’s a clear fly ball pitcher with a K/BB below 2.00. Mike Hampton is hurt. Tim Hudson will never be 2003 Tim Hudson again. Mark Redman stinks.

The pen’s front men aren’t as good as advertised. Bob Wickman is a bottom tier closer and Mike Gonzalez is overrated. Soriano is injury prone. On offense, Francouer won’t become a truly great player until he can take a pitch. Chipper Jones has to regress from 2006.

Bravo?: The Braves and Phillies are similar; they boast very good offenses and questions in the rotation. The Braves have more certainty on offense and the Phillies in their front end guys on the staff. The reason the Braves are a better bet is because they can expect some upside from their question marks. In other words, if James gets his control down, he could be a good pitcher. Soriano could emerge as a dominant reliever. Hudson will likely be okay, though not great. Compare that to Phillies where we know guys like Garcia/Moyer/Eaton cannot improve much and it’s highly unlikely Rowand, Barajas or Helms show themselves to be any better than they’ve been in the past.

The Braves will be second in the division. With a little luck, they will be in the mix for the wild card and the division itself.

1. New York Mets: Expected Record- 93- 69
Valentine’s View: “Oliver Perez and Lastings Milledge will either make me very happy or very sad.”

Simply Amazin’: That would be the way to describe the offense last season. Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes were legit MVP candidates with David Wright and Carlos Beltran forming a feared middle of the order. Adding to that is Moises Alou, who is great for the 120 games he actually plays. Shawn Green isn’t very good, but the Mets have Lastings Milledge in the wings. (.800+ OPS at 21 in the most difficult pitcher’s park in AAA)

The bullpen should one of the NL’s best again. Billy Wagner is still one of the game’s best firemen, Aaron Heilman thrived in the 8th inning last year and Pedro Feliciano is a decent lefty reliever. Side armer Joe Smith could replace Chad Bradford in the pen.

As much as people are blasting the rotation it came one game of getting the Mets to the World Series last year. It didn’t have Pedro Martinez in the second half, and was relying on Tom Glavine and El Duque last year too. The difference is that rather than Jose Lima/Steve Trachsel, the Mets have John Maine/Oliver Perez/Mike Pelfrey. You’d have a difficult time telling me those three are worse than the guys threw out last year.

The Downside: The rotation is still a question mark. As long as Glavine stays healthy, he should keep it stable, but he is 39. Perez has great upside, but only so much improvement can be expected. Maine will regress. Lots of people liken Pelfrey to Verlander, but that’s awfully optimistic, considering Verlander was also lucky last year with his peripherals.

The pen has questions with Scott Schoeneweis, Ambiorix Burgos and potentially Aaron Sele. The starters do not figure to go deep, so these questions will need to be answered soon.

Finally expect a huge regression from Jose Valentin and Paul LoDuca. The LoDuca one figures to be even more prominent, because Valentin will be platooned with Damion Easley. Milledge is no guarantee, and who knows if Pedro will be the same when he returns.

Early Returns: The problem I have with thinking the Phillies or Braves are better than the Mets is that even if the rotation is as bad as people say, it will have a hard time topping last year. Steve Trachsel was a disaster. Dave Williams saw a bunch of starts. Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez got multiple chances. The Mets have better replacements for them already and if those falter, the next group of players is still better than last year’s back enders.

All and all, the Mets are still the class of the NL East and likely the National League. A playoff berth should be expected.

Of course, games aren’t won on paper. Sunday night, the real test begins.