The Maine Problem
Listed in:Over at Metsblog Monday there was a section devoted to Mets right hander John Maine’s struggles, which have been vaulted to the forefront of Mets issues after his lousy five inning, five run performance against the Yankees. Here are Maine’s quotes via the site:
“If I could put my finger on it, I’d fix it. I thought I threw okay, a couple bad pitches here and there, and that seems to the problem the last couple of starts, but that’s something I’ve got to work on between starts and try to fix it…
“It seems the last few games the walks have been a little high for me – especially when you get to the bottom of the lineup it’s not something that I shouldn’t do…
“It’s been frustrating, it has. I don’t really know. I think my fastball has been what it normally is and I don’t know the cause of that, but I just like to think it will hopefully come back in the next couple of games. But, you know, for the most part, I think my change-up and slider have been okay and I think my fastball could be better at times and I think that’s the biggest thing…”
Here is response from Matt Cerrone- the chief editor of Metsblog:
…from what i can see, the fastball is missing that zip and tailing action that it had…it’s moving, but not in the same way…it’s up, a lot, and instead of swinging and missing, guys are either fouling it off or taking it up for a ball, hence more walks, and instead of getting weak pop-ups they’re ripping it hard for a hit…also, his shoulder keeps flying open, which cuts down on movement, and though he gets it together after a visit from lo duca or peterson, he reverts right back a few pitches later, and, as such, he starts aiming the ball a bit, which is always a bad combo…i’m not worried…he pitches a lot last season, and i can’t help but wonder if he has a bit of dead arm going right now…i don’t know, but, i have no doubt they’ll all work it out, though…
Matt’s sentiments reflect those of many Mets fans- that Maine is going through a slump that has come on recently. Maine himself thinks it’s a recent problem. The stats however say otherwise.
The problem here is that it isn't Maine’s last couple of starts that has doomed him. As mentioned on Sportszilla Live Sunday night before the deluge, the righty’s peripherals suggested he was a ticking time bomb; eventually, he was going to explode. The game Sunday night was that; Maine walked 3 batters in five innings and surrendered two home runs. That’s what happens when a fly ball pitcher gives up too many walks.
Just to show it isn’t a recent occurrence, here are Maine’s stats that I posted in my Early Evaluations piece at the start of the month:
26.1 IP, 3-0, 1.71 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 7.52 K/9, 4.78 BB/9, 1.57 K/BB, .68 HR/9, .199 BABIP, .75 GB/FB, 6.3% HR/FB
And now his stats as of today:
55.1 IP, 2.77 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 7.97 K/9, 4.88 BB/9, 1.63 K/BB, .81 HR/9, .267 BABIP, .69 GB/FB, 7.0% HR/FB
Maine’s control has gotten slightly worse in the last few starts, but it’s barely anything to write home about. In fact his strikeout rate has elevated, so his K/BB has actually improved. This also disproves the idea that there’s something wrong with Maine’s fastball or his arm- his K rate has gone up more than his walk rate has increased.
The difference is what I said then- Maine in the first month had been exceedingly lucky when balls were put in play against him. He was getting outs on 8 out 10 balls put in play- the normal number is 7 out of 10. I know it doesn’t seem like a lot, but remember, that’s the difference between a .200 hitter and a .300 one. (In other words, it’s a huge gulf)
It was unreasonable for him to continue getting that lucky and with his lousy control, the worst of anyone on the staff outside of Mike Pelfrey, this was going to happen eventually. Furthermore his homer rate was going to rise and as a fly ball pitcher that meant his HR/9 rate would at least double. When it did, he would suffer the double whammy of surrendering more hits and more home runs- in other words, a serious ERA buster.
Maine’s BABIP and HR/FB% are still below normal; the fact remains if he doesn’t improve on his control, which he has shown no inclination towards thus far, his ERA will continue to rise. A guy with his peripherals would be lucky to keep it below four. It’s imperative he decreases his walk rate to get his K/BB to above 2.00, 2.50 would be nice. I like Maine, but I’ve been saying since before the season started he’d be a guy whose best year would put him with an ERA around 3.70. Odds are he’s still a 4.30 type starter. On the Mets, that’s still going to be fine.
However, I also did not think he’d be walking nearly five batters per nine innings. My projections were based off Maine's walk rate last year of 3.30 and a K/BB of 2.10, not stellar but at Shea Stadium enough to get by. What he's doing this year will not cut it if he wants to be anything more than a back end starter. Thus the Mets had better hope that his loss of control is as fluky as his BABIP and HR/FB% rates thus far.
Otherwise, the biggest certainty is that John Maine’s nice start to the season will end up going like his start against the Yankees Sunday night; up in smoke.
(But later on this week, I'll be pointing out a Mets pitcher who has been far better than people actually realize this season- the guy who has been the real revelation on the staff)
Comments
Maine is fine. His bad outing against the Yankees was a cheap pop fly single by Johnny Damon away from being a quality start (and, perhaps, a win).
Posted by: rob | May 25, 2007 2:22 PM