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A Cool Draft

Listed in: Basketball

Despite the fact that perhaps the biggest day in Sonics history is just around the corner, I've been surprisingly quiet on this whole NBA Draft topic. No more! Here, in a mostly-uncollected fashion, are my thoughts on tomorrow's spectacle.

-Greg Oden should be and likely has always been the first pick. Bill Simmons be damned, the truth of the matter is that out of the last nine NBA champions, eight have been led by big men (Duncan four times, Shaq three, and Ben Wallace once). You might quibble with Big Ben (and Simmons does, erroneously attributing the championship to Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups, but Wallace led the Pistons that year. Furthermore, Shaq was on the ninth team, even if you could contend that Dwayne Wade had more to do with the title than O'Neal. Whatever the numbers, it's clear that a dominant big man is quite nearly a prerequisite to a title. Now, there's no guarantee that Oden equals Duncan or O'Neal, but he's the most likely candidate to enter the league since, well, Duncan. Even if Kevin Durant is the best roster fit for the Blazers, the decision to take Oden is something of an easy one. Dan Shanoff asked the question the other day if fans really want titles or just entertainment. I guess that's an easy question for a guy who shamelessly passes himself off as a big Florida Gators fan (despite having just recently married into that fan base). Allow a true sports fan to respond: give me the goddamn parades.

-The Blazers taking Oden is bad news for the Sonics. With Oden, they become a threat in the West immediately. Even if you figure he'll struggle offensively his first year or two, no one doubts that Oden will have a huge impact defensively from Day One. A big interior presence solves so many woes for the Sonics it makes me almost disappointed to get Durant.

-So much of what the Sonics do depends on whether they think they can resign Rashard Lewis or not. While he might not be quite worth max money, Rashard is a valuable player: he posted a Win Score Rating (for an explanation, see this piece (check the comments)) that ranked among the league's elite players last year. While I don't think he's the centerpiece of a championship team, I do think he can play along Durant, especially if Durant grows into his body a bit and can spend time at the 4. If Lewis is likely to leave (whether via sign-and-trade or simply free agency) then the Sonics are better off blowing up (to some extent, at least) their roster. Assuming Oden goes at #1, Durant is of course a fantastic addition, but he's 18. Furthermore, if the Luke Ridnour deal (bringing back the 11th pick) is a go, that's presumably 40% of the starting lineup next year handed to rookies. While I'd love to see teams try and defend Ray Allen, Rashard, and Durant on the perimeter, that team is still a ways from being a title contender. While Danny Ainge (and my dad) may love Robert Swift, he's a big question mark in my book, even if he wasn't coming back from serious knee surgery. While I wouldn't be pushing Ray out the door, I'd certainly listen to offers: if the Sonics can add, say the #5 pick in the draft, they can take Mike Conley if he slides past the Grizzlies (somewhat unlikely) or flip the pick to a team like the Warriors who are desperate to take Yi Jianlian (or even take him themselves). Allen was a great pickup when they got him, but now's the time to cut bait: his WSR of 1.33 last year wasn't worth a max deal, and he's not getting any younger.

-I don't understand why Atlanta is so willing to deal their picks away. This is the deepest draft in a good long while, and they've got two lottery picks. See if you can get Memphis to flip picks for a guy like Hakim Warrick, or if not take either Conley or Al Horford, and then wait and see who lasts until 11. Ridnour's a decent player, but I think they could do better than that for the 11th pick.

-Guys who I like in the draft: Corey Brewer (Hollinger's numbers scare me a bit, but I'm trusting my eyes on this one), who would be the guy I'd be advocating for if the Sonics didn't have the second pick. Mike Conley, not exactly a bold proclamation, but I'd laugh if yet again the Hawks pass up a franchise point guard. Brandon Wright, everyone is backing off him, and I agree that his passivity is a bit of a concern, but he's more than just an athlete, he has a lot of solid offensive game: if he makes it to the Bulls, he's a natural fit. Joakim Noah, not to be a star, but to be a very useful player for a decade (ala Shane Battier).

-Guys I don't like in this draft: Jeff Green, who did next to nothing in Georgetown's final two games and is an ordinary athlete at best. Acie Law, I doubt his shooting ability and just don't see him being more than a decent point guard at the pro level, which makes him useful but not a lottery pick. Spencer Hawes, who I saw plenty of at the UW and was underwhelmed by: he's got a nice finesse game but was too easily overwhelmed by smaller players. Nick Young, who's a wonderful story but never managed to wow me in college (and I watch a lot of Pac-10 ball). Al Thornton, who's got the lowest ceiling of any of the lottery hopefuls. Sean Williams, a suspension waiting to happen.

-My mock lottery:

1. Blazers - Oden
2. Sonics - Durant
3. Hawks - Conley
4. Grizzlies - Horford
5. Celtics - Brewer
6. Bucks - Green
7. Timberwolves - B. Wright
8. Bobcats - Noah
9. Bulls - Jianlian
10. Kings - Rodney Stuckey
11. Hawks - Hawes
12. 76ers - Thornton
13. New Orleans - Julian Wright
14. Clippers - Young

See also: NBA, NBA Draft, Prognostication

Posted by Zachary Geballe on June 27, 2007 12:07 PM |

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Comments

Great day for the Sonics today! I like the direction they are now heading: a younger, quicker, and more athletic team. Ray Allen has been great for Seattle, but he also has not proven that he can lead a team to success.

The trade got me so excited I almost forgot about getting Kevin Durant, who, with Allen's departure, should get a chance to step in and contribute right away.

What are your thoughts on the day?

Posted by: kevin | June 29, 2007 1:32 AM

Am I crazy for feeling like the Knicks had a great night?

In the pitiful east, the Knicks have twin towers...Randolph and Curry. I think the fact that they just got rid of Steve Francis in beautiful. Yeah, I'll miss Frye a little bit; but I feel pretty good right now.

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