A few days ago, David posted a column arguing that when you factor in defense, the Twins could be better off with Jason Tyner in centerfield and Torii Hunter’s money spend elsewhere. Now in my comment on it, I said I disagreed with the idea that Hunter-Tyner wasn’t a serious downgrade. However my key contribution to the argument was if Juan Pierre is worthy of a huge multi year contract, then Jason Tyner is worthy of a starting spot somewhere for a fraction of the price.

Well in 2007 here are their numbers:

Pierre: .273/.305/.319/.624 20/26 SB
Tyner: .264/.313/.321/.634 3/4 SB

Those numbers show you two things. First Jason Tyner is an awful offensive baseball player and it’s very hard to believe his defense would make up for it. Secondly, Juan Pierre is almost as bad and his chances to hurt his team by making outs 69.5 percent of the time he walks to plate should be minimized.

Apparently, Grady Little agrees with me-- not something that happens everyday.

In Saturday night’s 1-0 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays and Cy Young contender Shawn Marcum, Little dropped Pierre to the eight spot in the order. Then despite collecting two hits, with one out in the ninth and no one on, Little pinch hit for Pierre with the immortal Andre Ethier. That’s right, Andre freaking Ethier, the guy who had a nice month in the big leagues last year and has been thoroughly average ever since.

Apparently average is better than Pierre. Of course sabermetric inclined people, or devil worshipers according to some writers, could have told you that without having to invest millions and two months of playing time. Then again, who needs to be sabermetrically inclined to realize Pierre aien’t so hot at what he does? Here are his stats from the last two years:

2006: .292/.330/.388/.717 57/74 SB (77%)
2005: .276/.326/.354/.680 58/78 SB (74%)

Sure he steals bases fairly well, but lots of guys can do that and they don’t cost you 45 million bucks. For example, Dave Roberts had splits of .293/.360/.393/.753 last year with 49 steals to Pierre’s 58. Are nine steals worth the millions more Pierre got?

And the weird thing is, he’s less valuable than the man he replaced, who filled the same roll last year! Kenny Lofton had splits of .301/.360/.403/.763 with 32 steals in 2006. Lofton is struggling a bit in Texas this year but the .737 OPS he’s got far outclasses Pierre.

Last season, 19 players listed as center fielders on ESPN’s stats page qualified for the batting title. Pierre out OPS-ed one- Willy Tavares. If we lower the criteria to 400 plate appearances, Pierre drops to 24th of 29. The players he beat out? Steve Finley, Coco Crisp, Tavares, Brian Anderson and Joey Gathright. None of those guys will be sniffing a contract like Pierre’s any time soon, if ever, and Finley and Crisp were within 20 points of his OPS playing better defense.

So what the Dodgers did this off season was pay too much for a player who A. wasn’t unique and B. wasn’t necessarily the best player of that crop available. Needless to say, you certainly would not have seen Paul DePodesta make such a ridiculous signing.

DePodesta was the whipping boy in LA for a Dodger team that in his tenure won a division and then got hurt in the following season. That got the former A’s assistant a pink slip, primarily because LA writers complained left and right about a mid season trade that sent Paul LoDuca, the “heart and soul” of the Dodgers in a multi player trade that brought back Brad Penny. It just showed DePodesta didn’t understand “chemistry” just “computers.” Even if the team won the division that year.

It’s become a classic argument; facts say player X isn’t very good. But the facts are wrong because they’re cold hard facts, they don’t watch players play! Plus facts don’t take into account that player X punted at Nebraska, or was 5’7 and doesn’t look like a baseball player or won 4 world championships, or tries really hard to run to first base even though he’s slower than 60% of the guys who, you know, coast there all the time.

Here’s something I’d like to know, would a lineup of nine Barry Bonds, all keeping to themselves and acting like pricks score more runs than a lineup of David Ecksteins, Darrin Erstads or Paul LoDucas? How about nine Bonds against the lineups of those guys combined? The best line I’ve ever heard on team chemistry is that winning creates it. And newsflash, you win with good players. Barry Bonds at 60% is more valuable than David Eckstein at 110%, chemistry be damned.

In this case it’s not as drastic, but a similar situation. Look, LoDuca has had a nice career since his Dodger days, but most people with common sense would say Penny, as a pitcher, has been far more valuable than a slap hitting catcher with mediocre defensive skills, especially since the Dodgers have replaced LoDuca’s production with the younger, more cost effective Russell Martin.

Meanwhile DePodesta also brought aboard Derek Lowe, who was one of the NL’s best pitchers last year. He signed Jeff Kent, who has been the Dodgers best offensive player over the past three years. He brought in JD Drew, who the beat writers love to fillet for lacking the grit and hustle say, Erstad shows. Of course those same writers laughed when Drew opted out of his deal, then were shocked to find out their ideas of value were far different from major league team’s.

Then again, maybe it’s just because Ned Coletti has tougher market to deal with than DePodesta did. Why 45 million dollars just doesn’t go as far as it used to. Back in the day, that could get you a top of the line pitcher for five years. Or a five tool position player who could anchor your offense for years to come. Now a days all it gets you is well…

Juan Pierre.

At least that’s all it gets you when Dodgers general manager Coletti is at the helm. Where are the Bill Plaschkes of the world now?

Probably still trying to figure out a way to pin this on Paul DePodesta.

What Would PDP Do?

TrackBack

Comments

Post a comment