You know what I love about you, David: you use obscure statistics that make absolutely perfect sense but make no sense at the same time. Good times. Are those defensive statistics based on increased chances with more playing time?

Did you just really say that Torii Hunter and Jason Tyner are equivalent ballplayers?

Very interesting take, and an interesting read. Can't get past the lime green coloring though, makes it very difficult to read the page.

Except bitches like the long ball, not the fly-catcher. BOOOOSH!

Joe, scary to think about, isn't it? I've probably given Tyner too much credit, since he hasn't played that much over the past few years, but he is an excellent defender and has reached the point of being a halfway-decent OBP guy, while Torii has declined both as a hitter and fielder. Unless you want the draft pick(s) Hunter will bring you as a departing free agent, you'd have to strongly consider trading him for a 3B or DH upgrade and take your chances with Tyner. For his career, Tyner has started 202 games in LF and has a (basic) Zone Rating of 903, and has played 82 games in CF and has a Zone Rating of 918. A 918 ZR in 2006 would have put Tyner second of all MLB CFs behind Corey Patterson. I think it'd be fair to guess he'd be one of the top five defensive CFs in the game, with a sub-standard bat, but because defense matters, he could bring the same production to the table that Torii does.

If Tyner is two and a half times the defender Hunter is, then Defense doesn't matter that much. All this tells me is that non-proprietary defensive metrics still have a ways to go.

Johnny Damon is absolutely a slouch in center field. His legs are in bad shape, and his bad arm is not a myth. He should move to left field, where his speed would be an asset and his arm would be less of a factor.

For his career, Jason Tyner has 0 HR and a .618 OPS. If you think his amazing defense is enough to make up for it, you are certifiable.

Michael - Tyner had three terrible seasons early in his career. Since then, he's settled in to a solid role-player career, and I think the terrible seasons have tainted perceptions of what he's been doing recently. That's not to say that performance doesn't count, but there's reason to believe he's a different player now. If, in full time play, Tyner hits a notch below his 2006 levels of 312/345/353, say 280/330/350, his defense makes up for the difference between that and Hunter. Even if Tyner is terrible with the bat again, his defense is good enough that the Twins can gain significant ground by trading Hunter for an upgrade on Nick Punto. Would the Cards be crazy enough to move Edmonds to RF and trade Rolen? Would the Jays be crazy enough to trade Glaus? Would the Angels be nuts enough to trade one of their prospects? The market would bear something sweet for Hunter, and I think the Twins should pull the trigger.

Seems like we're saying the same thing. My objection to the goofy trade proposal was threefold: ARod's WARP3 (adjusted for everything, including defense and position) was far higher than Torii's. Beyond that, Sinker was proposing that the Yankees pay the Twins $16m to take ARod off their hands. And finally, the proposed trade relied on the idea that Hunter would magically and generously decide to take a three-year deal at $15m/yr, which is just looneytunes.

Anyway, I know defense matters, which is why I used WARP3 and not VORP. Taking anything you want into consideration, as we both showed, makes that (admittedly casually tossed-off) trade proposal insane for the Yankees.

Are you suggesting that fielding a team consisting entirely of Tyner (or his equivalent) would be better then a team of Hunters?

The Zone Rating is a fatally flawed stat.

Holy Splits Factor Batman, according to those numbers, Jason Tyner is worth approximately 45 million over 5 years!

Look, Tyner is a mediocre baseball player. But the truth is he's as valuable as Juan Pierre who also hits for no power, even less of an on base percentage and is one of the most overrated defense centerfielders in baseball. Tyner's OPS last year was .698, Pierre's .717. This year Tyner is at .618 and Pierre is at .627. If Pierre can turn that garbage stat line into 9 million a season, then Tyner deserves a chance to play somewhere.

Hunter is a better player but we're not living in a vacuum here. The Twins are going to lose him for nothing at the end of the year. If I were them, I'd cash my chips with Hunter. Tyner makes for an okay stopgap, though they'd be smart to get some power at 3rd base to replace the power lost with Hunter.

KT - If I came off harshly on your piece, I'm sorry. I just meant to point out that offense tends to rule the day in such discussions, and I zeroed in on the PECOTA predictions. Also, FWIW, just a note for the future, Tangotiger has shown pretty convincingly that WARP, and for that matter EqA, can't be trusted.

Drew - Wrong question. Tyner vs. Torii in LF probably goes to Tyner. Tyner vs. Torii in RF might go to Torii. Tyner vs. Torii at SS probably goes to Tyner. Tyner vs. Torii at 1B goes to Torii, because the the defensive gap won't be as great, and so on. Different skills at different positions, etc. That has nothing to do with whether or not ZR or UZR is flawed. I suggest you read the UZR methodology if you haven't, and if you have, explain what you think is flawed about it beyond the basic "someone is probably screwing it up in the data-gathering stage" argument.

Ben - Thanks for furthering my point by showing that Tyner is basically Juan Pierre with the bat. Yes, that's bad, but it's in a tier of guys who have been starting in CF in MLB along with Darin Erstad, Randy Winn, and Mark Kotsay (2006 version), and it's not so bad that a GREAT defender wouldn't make him, in sum, better than average, or about what Torii Hunter brings to the table. We're not talking about a guy who plays CF like Todd Hundley would. We're talking about what would happen if a team had the courage to play one of the best defenders in the game in spite of his appalling hitting. Hunter really might not be the better player because while he's a very good defender he's no longer among the best of the best, and his hitting definitely isn't there. Tyner is not worth 45 million over 5 because there still isn't as much demand for defensive contributions as there is for offensive contributions, even though it can be shown that defense matters enough to reorder players were you to rank their total values. Thus, Ryan Langerhans goes unappreciated. Thus, Mike Cameron goes without notice as one of the very best CFs of the post-Griffey-in-his-prime era. Thus, Derek Jeter isn't significantly more valuable to his team than Placido Polanco is to his unless Jeter has an MVP-level year with the stick like 2006.

You can't keep throwing out Tyner's numbers as if he's played every game this year and last. Pierre has 245 at bats this season and 699 last season to Tyner's 102 and 218. Tyner does not keep up even his mediocre numbers over 700 at bats.

Look, I'm all for trading Hunter, he's doing well in his contract year and more power to him for that. He's lost a step though, and the Twins are going the need the cash for Santana and Morneau.

Just don't tell me that Tyner is as good as him, because he isn't.

I agree, Tyner isn't as good as Hunter, but Juan Pierre is awful. There's little reason to believe Tyner couldn't equal Pierre's OPS and certainly out on base him with more ABs. It's highly unlikely that his OPS would drift lower than .600 and Pierre is not likely to get his above .700. Factor in defense and Tyner becomes as valuable as Pierre for an insignificant fraction of the price.

My point was, if Pierre is good enough to make millions and start in center, then Tyner should be able to find someplace where he can start. Florida for example could use someone in center.

In an ideal world Hunter would remain the Twins centerfielder. But it isn't an ideal world and he's going to get a big contract (Think Beltran money for less years) despite the fact his skills are declining. If the Twins signed him it would be a huge mistake. So the question is, would the Twins be better off with Tyner in center and using the money they'd have to pay Hunter to sign a third baseman, or better yet, trade Hunter for a good third base prospect?

F the B - Pinch hitting is actually worse for a player's numbers than playing regularly. In addition, part time players tend to maintain their numbers when given regular playing time. Of course, Tyner could completely collapse like he did in 2002, or he could hit like he did in 2006 and be a relatively valuable player. I acknowledge that it sounds crazy on first blush, but Tyner is perfectly capable of matching Torii's OBP, and there's evidence that at this stage of their careers Tyner is the far better defender. The gains that can be made from upgrading one of the very worst regular 3B in the game would probably outstrip any reasonable downgrade from Torii to Tyner.