Deadline Depression
Listed in: BaseballSo with the MLB trade deadline just around the corner and my Seattle Mariners astoundingly in the thick of the AL playoff race, it's time to look at a few players who might be on the market. The M's, like just about every playoff contender since the beginning of time, are looking to pick up some pitching, preferably a starter. Of course, the pickings appear to be rather slim this season, and it's hard to know whether any of the players who appear to be on the market would actually serve as much of an upgrade.
First, let's look at the pitchers who might be displaced in the rotation if another starter were acquired.
Jeff Weaver: After a disastrous start to the season, Weaver has been much better since coming off the DL. I'm not sure he'll maintain that level of performance, but hopefully the one-third of an inning, six run games (against the Royals, no less) are behind him. Right now, he's entrenched as the fourth starter on the team and probably won't be bumped unless he struggles for an extended period again.
Horacio Ramirez: Brought in this season to be the fifth starter, HoRam has been an utter disaster. He's striking out less than three batters per nine innings and walking more than that. His groundball tendancies are the only thing that have kept his ERA from approaching Weaver's, but he's no Chien Ming Wang. At this point, Ramirez isn't a major league quality pitcher. His last outing was decent, but right now he's on the verge of losing his job again.
Cha Seung Baek: Despite a similar ERA to Ramirez, Baek deserves to be in the rotation once he comes off the DL. He's cut his walks in half this year while bumping his strikeouts a bit. How many teams have a fifth starter with a 3.5 K:BB ratio? Baek has been brutalized by a .344 BABIP and a 58.4 LOB%. His Fielding Independent Pitching is 3.73. The downside is that he doesn't appear to be all that close to coming off the DL, as his right shoulder inflammation hasn't gone down enough for him to resume throwing. With the M's in the thick of the playoff race, it's hard to play wait-and-see with a guy who's got a 5.74 ERA.
The farm system isn't about to provide any relief, as the team has already seen that Ryan Feierabend isn't anywhere near ready for the big leagues (he's only 21). If Ramirez isn't an acceptable fifth starter (and he isn't), and Baek isn't on his way back, then it appears the team will have to look to the trade market to fill the void.
Let's first look at the three pitchers who have been most widely rumored to be available.
Matt Morris: He's been linked to Seattle quite a bit, in part because the M's and Giants have made a number of deals in recent years. Morris has a 4.08 ERA (and a 105 ERA+), which would seem to fit in nicely in the back end of a rotation. He's about to turn 33 and is under contract through 2008 with an option for the 09 season for about $9 million per season. However , there are a number of red flags when you look at his statline. First and foremost, his strikeout numbers have been declining for the last six years, dropping from 7.7/9 in 2001 to 4.4/9 this year. His walk rate, meanwhile, has basically stayed constant. He's still a better pitcher than Ramirez, but that's not saying much. If he were a free agent after this year, trading for him might make sense, but committing to another two expensive years of a clearly declining pitcher is hard to defend, even in the midst of a playoff race. I'd consider the deal if San Francisco would either eat some of the contract and/or take nothing back in return, but there's no way I'm giving up anything but a low-level prospect for Morris.
Jose Contreras: Contreras is basically the Cuban Morris. He's got the same declining strikeout numbers and a barely passable K:BB ratio not to mention two more years at $10 million per. He's also at least 35 (his actual age may be higher) and unlikely to be more than a minor upgrade over Ramirez. Even if the White Sox gave him away, I'd steer clear.
Odalis Perez: Perez has two things working in his favor: he's a lefty, and the team can buy him out of his 2008 option for $1.5 million. Otherwise, he's even worse than Contreras and Morris: a worse K:BB ratio, and a slight groundball tendency. He's not worth a rotation spot, let alone any sort of prospect.
Ok, so the most obvious targets are basically trash. Still, there might be a few players who will come available that could offer some hope.
Jon Garland: With the White Sox struggling, it's possible they might be looking to move other starters, especially since they're unlikely to get anything at all for Contreras. Garland boasts a solid 3.88 ERA, and while he's under contract for 2008 (for $12 million), he's only 27 years old. Despite a better ERA than 2006, Garland's peripherals have taken a dive. He's striking out less than 4/9, while his walks have jumped almost a batter per nine innings (to 2.68). His ERA is a product of luck: lower than expected numbers in BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB%. Couple that with the fact that he has a reputation as a "winner," and the price tag on Garland makes him an unattractive option. If the White Sox are giving him away, I'd certainly take him, but dealing a top prospect (or more) for a guy with scary peripherals is a bad idea.
Javier Vazquez: Ah, now here's an actual pitcher. Vazquez is having an excellent season, striking out over eight batters per nine innings while walking just over two. He's a flyball pitcher, but at Safeco that's less of a concern than at US Cellular Field in Chicago. He's about to turn 31 years old, and while he's under contract through 2010, unlike the other pitchers I've mentioned his numbers are not in decline. Two problems, however. First, he's likely to cost a fair amount in terms of prospects. But the real obstacle is a limited no-trade clause that would keep him from being dealt to Seattle. It's unlikely he'd waive the no-trade clause, as he's previously expressed a desire to be closer to his family in Puerto Rico. Too bad, because he'd be the kind of addition who could actually make a difference.
There are a few more names out there, like Dontrelle Willis and Roy Oswalt, but they're far less likely to be dealt. If their names come up in the next few days, I'll take a look at them. At this point, though, it doesn't look like there's a player on the market who would be worth dealing for (besides Vazquez), which means that the best hope for the Mariners is for Cha Seung Baek to get off the DL soon and displace Horacio Ramirez in the rotation.
