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Midseason Grades: New York Mets

Listed in: Baseball

Editor's Note: This is under my name, but Ben actually wrote it

Mets First Half Grades

Working is harder than I expected.

After being unemployed for my first two years after college I’ve finally entered the work force. And thanks to that, my posting has dropped to nil. I’m adjusting to schedule and dealing with an 1.5-2 hour commute each way, but thankfully both should ease shortly. So for those five people out there who actually like reading my work, you’ll see more of it eventually.

Anyway, what do I write after not posting forever? A cliché Mets’ first half grade piece. Yes, I know, you expect more. Heck I expect more. But it’s better than nothing.

So ladies and gents here are your first half grades for the Blue and Orange.

The Starting Lineup:

Jose Reyes (A): Hard to argue with what Reyes has done this year. Some will quibble with his power outage, but overall his slugging has dropped 48 points while his on base percentage has jumped 33 points. With his speed, that makes him at least a valuable as 2006, if not more so. He’s given above average defense at short- which is what has set him ahead of his below average fielding counterparts in the NL East and in the Bronx.

David Wright (A): I know, he seems to be having a down year. But while his OPS is down, at .879 that isn’t too bad considering how bad his April was. All and all Wright is on pace to top his career high in home runs. He might even go 30/30 this year. Plus his defense has gone from well below average to shockingly, one of the top five in the NL according to fielding metrics. Guess this just shows that one month is just that- one month, not a season.

Jose Valentin: (D) Last year Valentin came out of nowhere to post a stellar .820 OPS and sparkling defense at second. This year, the carriage has turned into a pumpkin as the 37 year old has an .685 OPS. To make matters worse just .297 points of that is on base percentage. He’s missed time due to injury, but it might be time for the Mets to start thinking about a Damion Easley/Ruben Gotay platoon at second.

Carlos Delgado: (D-) The “D” is for disaster. The Yankees gaping hole at first gets all the press, but Delgado’s lousy .705 OPS is even more costly. At least the Yankees are throwing out useful defensive players at first. Most worrisome is his OBP, normally stellar (.381 career) is at .305 this year. That’s because of a paltry walk rate; 7.8%, the only time in his career outside of 1995 it was below 10%. It’s 5% below last year’s rate. In short, there’s a fair chance Delgado be in a steep decline he won’t come out of.

Moises Alou: (C-) In a sense Moises Alou has been a disappointment. In another sense, a more realistic one, Alou has been about what you could expect. He only played in 30 games, not exactly a surprise. He didn’t hit for much power but did post a .375 OBP in his 110 AB. He’s a better player than Carlos Gomez or Shawn Green and his return will help the Mets a great deal offensively. Of course, how long he’s back for is another question.

Carlos Beltran: (B-) An enigma. Beltran has been great at times, poor at others all and all leading to an .817 OPS. Not terrible for a centerfielder with his defensive abilities, but a far cry from last year’s .982 mark. I can live with the drop in power, but the fact his OBP has dropped from .388 to .340 (his mark in 2005 was .330) is most distressing. Beltran probably was hurt for part of the year, but outfielder injury bug kept him off the D/L by necessity. If that’s the case, he should improve on those numbers from here on out.

Shawn Green: (C-) Should have lost his job in spring training, but Willie Randolph maintained his typical “Veteran Obstinacy” by benching Lastings Milledge and keeping Green. Turns out Green had a great first month and a half. Then he broke his foot, came back and became the typically bad Shawn Green. The .275 average doesn’t indicate how bad Green is; the .325 OBP and horrible outfield defense does. Now as the second half rolls around, Willie can bench Green again for Milledge. I’m not holding my breath, unless Milledge absolutely rakes in the time between now and Moises Alou’s return.

Paul LoDuca: (D+) It’s no secret I don’t like LoDuca. I think his “Heart and Soul” thing is media hype and nothing more. And outside of Carlos Delgado, no player has hurt the Mets more this season than LoDuca. He has no OBP (.325), no power (.372 slug) and is below average behind the plate. At least Jose Valentin gives a defensive boost in theory. Too bad the Mets couldn’t have traded for Michael Barrett.

Bench:

Ramon Castro: (B+) In his limited at bats (78), Castro has a .349 OBP and .548 slugging. Mets fans would riot and call Latino favoritism if Castro was made the starter, but the reality is he could hardly do worse than LoDuca. There’s at least 50/50 chance he does better too.

Ruben Gotay: (B) Limited AB but the same deal as Castro. In a platoon situation with Damion Easley there’s almost no way he could give the Mets less at second than Valentin has this season. He won’t OPS .891, but the Mets would take .800 from him at this point.

Damion Easley: (B) Easley should only play against lefties, but he was forced into action against righties this year. He’s perfectly fine as a platoon player. Anything more and he’s exposed. Oh and speaking of exposed…

Endy Chavez: (B-) There are some Mets fans who swore Chavez should be playing everyday. No, no and no. Maybe over Shawn Green, but not over Milledge, Carlos Gomez and Mosies Alou. He’s too inferior an offensive player. He posted a .743 OPS (.336 OBP) before his injury and it was steadily dropping as he was playing every day. Chavez is a good fourth outfielder and a great defensive replacement. But he should only play everyday when everyone is hurt, to paraphrase the greatest dugout of all time.

Julio Franco: (F) Old man Franco is the bane of Mets fans’ existence these days. This one they may have gotten right. He has stunk this year, .200/.328/.260. That’s incredibly bad. The Mets won’t cut Franco, but he just hasn’t been very good this season. They should be able to find a AAA player who could contribute more. Heck, what is Lenny Harris up to these days? Editor's Note: Hope he's ready to start drawing on that 401(k) plan, because Franco has since been DFA'd by the Mets.

Carlos Gomez: (C-) Should have been in AAA. He doesn’t have the plate discipline necessary to succeed in the bigs yet and unfortunately will lose most of the rest of the year due to a broken bone in his hand. When he played, he was fast, ran down fly balls (though misjudging them badly) and whiffed A LOT. (24.1%) The .686 OPS isn’t great but he’s not much worse than Shawn Green at 21. That is more an indictment of Shawn Green than a compliment for Gomez.

David Newhan: (D) As bad as Julio Franco at the plate, but costs less and can play more positions. I can see a place for him on a roster, but he should be the last man on it.

Ricky Ledee: (Inc) Was here. Now is not. If he clears waivers probably will be back eventually. As a fifth outfielder he can only do so much to help or hurt the team.

Ben Johnson: (Inc)I hated trading Heath Bell, but no one believed me back in the day when I said he was actually good. He might be intriguing with 350-400 AB but Milledge is ahead of him and rightfully so. He has no place here.

Lastings Milledge: (Inc) Reportedly worked his butt off in spring training and played well. His reward was three AB in two weeks. He went down to AAA, broke his foot and is now on his way back. He’ll likely be called up to start the second half. Good- he could be the key for the Mets offense in the second half.


Starting Pitching:

Tom Glavine: (C-) Started the season like a house of fire, but his peripherals were not up to snuff. The end result saw him having a rough stretch in June. His ERA now resides at 4.36. Amazingly he hasn’t had an ERA above 4.00 since his first year for the Mets. However his peripherals are about the same from that season. Right now he’s the third best pitcher on the team though, so it’s acceptable.

Orlando Hernandez: (B) There’s a possibility El Duque is close to the same age as Julio Franco. If that is in fact the case, he gets props for effort since he’s more effective. The 3.22 ERA is nothing to scoff at but with a terrible 1.97 K/BB combined with .97 GB/FB rate, it’s likely he’s in for serious regression. Oh and another D/L stint.

John Maine: (A) I criticized Maine in early June as having been lucky. He was walking too many guys to be effective. The righty has since seen his K/BB jump .50 to 2.33. You’d like it to be higher for a fly ball heavy pitcher (.81 GB/FB) but you’ll take it. His BABIP and HR/FB% are still below norms. The latter can be explained by Shea to a degree, the former is luck. (Though the Mets pitchers ALL have BABIP below normal) Maine should see some regression, but he should be a solid pitcher the rest of the way so long as he maintains his recent control.

Oliver Perez: (A) At the same time I was criticizing John Maine, I was hailing Oliver Perez as actually being the best pitcher on the Mets staff. Unfortunately since, Perez’ K rate has declined and his walks risen. The 2.30 K/BB is below what you want to see from an extreme fly ball pitcher like Perez (.63 GB/FB). His HR/FB and BABIP are similar to John Maine- so expect regression. Still there’s no denying he’s been one of the bright spots for the Mets this year.

Jorge Sosa: (C) Quick what happens when you have a pitcher who has a K/BB of 1.65 and a GB/FB ratio of .92? Bad times that’s what. What so why does he have a 3.92 ERA? Sosa has been exceptionally lucky so far with BABIP and HR/FB rates below normal. When he comes back from the D/L, poundings are likely to ensue.

Mike Pelfrey: (D-) Three weeks ago he’d have gotten an “F” as he was sent to AAA after posting a horrendous K/BB below one and not getting nearly enough ground ball outs to compensate. His strikeout rate was down so there was serious cause for concern. However his last two starts have shown a little better K rate. Hopefully this continues, though Pelfrey does not figure to be long in the rotation should Pedro Martinez’s rehab go as planned.

Jason Vargas: (D) Lots of talent- will he ever harness it? Your guess is as good as mine. He had an okay start over a month ago and then predictably got bombed in Colorado. (Fly ball pitcher in Coors? Gee, I wonder if that’s a good idea?) I still would have him start over Dave Williams though.

Dave Williams: (F) I’ve never liked Dave Williams because I’d rather the Mets toss a young player with upside than a soft tossing lefty that tops out as a number five. But hey, I’m not Omar Minaya. Then again, after his debacle against Houston last weekend, it might be a long time before Williams gets another crack.

Chan Ho Park: (F) That was a waste of a start. He’s since been cut.

Relievers:

Aaron Sele: (D-) He’s a long man so I’m not sure if it’s possible to fail. But Sele blows. He’s got a 4.41 ERA in 32.2 IP, a miserable 1.31 K/BB and isn’t generating nearly enough ground balls (1.24) to be effective. The Mets haven’t really been hurt by him, but they’re not helped by him either. I suppose that’s why he’s the long man.

Ambiorix Burgos: (B-) Burgos’ strike outs were down as were his walks, though overall his 2.11 K/BB was essentially equivalent to his rookie year. Despite the low K/BB, he showed enough to make you believe the 22 year old could be a good set up man down the road. Unfortunately, his elbow have exploded. In which case, see ya in 2009.

Joe Smith: (A-) The rookie right handed sidearmer was brought in to take Chad Bradford’s role as a specialist--- well more like came out of relative obscurity to earn the role after being drafted just last year. Smith has a tidy 2.75 ERA and a very good 8.50 K/9 thus far. His control has not been as good as he’s walking 4.50 per nine for just a paltry 1.89 K/BB. Well paltry if he didn’t also generate 3.25 times as many ground balls as fly ones. He hasn’t been spotless, but he’s been about as good as one can hope from a rookie set up man.

Pedro Feliciano: (A-) Perhaps the most underrated reliever in baseball, which is amazing considering he pitches for a New York team. Yet Feliciano has now posted a sub 3.00 ERA for the last year and a half. His strike out rate is solid once again, over 8.00/9 for the second straight year. His control has worsened however, so he should see his ERA rise a bit from it’s current 2.51 mark. Still he’s generating 1.81 times more ground balls than fly balls, is left handed and succeeding. Maybe it’s time he’s given the props he deserves.

Guillermo Mota: (C-) Mota received loads of press for testing positive for steroids then getting a two year deal from the Mets. I bet he wishes that were still the reason he was getting press clippings. Nope. It’s more the 6.65 ERA in 21.2 IP. But Mota has been a bit unlucky, having a 3.17 K/BB. However he’s got BABIP of .333 and a HR/FB% of 16.0. This isn’t odd since we’re dealing with small sample size.

Still small sample size got Heath Bell traded. Somehow though, I doubt Willie will lose the faith in Mota that he did in Bell.

Aaron Heilman: (C) Mr. Heilman is suffering through some serious Dave Bush syndrome. What is Dave Bush syndrome? When a pitcher’s peripherals don’t match his ERA and things like BABIP and HR/FB don’t explain it. Heilman has struggled to pitch to a 3.83 ERA, yet has a K/BB of 3.44, (better than last year) a HR/FB% of 10.6 and a BABIP of .266. To put it simply, I’m not sure what is going on here. Heilman still can be quite useful, but I’m not sure the Mets will trust him in a big spot down the stretch.

Scott Schoeneweis: (D+) A mini upset here--- he doesn’t fail! Why? Well he actually gets lefties out- they’re hitting just .222 against him. He hasn’t given up a home run to a lefty either. The problem? He sucks against righties, to the tune of a 1.058 OPS against. Yet Willie Randolph insists on using him against righties. This makes no sense. Thus while Schoenenweis has been bad, the large heap of the blame belongs to the manager here.

Billy Wagner: (A+) I care not about all star games because they are exhibitions. JJ Putz has been the best reliever in baseball, but peripherally Wagner has been right with him. He has a 1.64 ERA to go along with a K/9 of 11.97 and a K/BB of 5.10. Yeah, that’s pretty darn good. The difference between the two is entirely BABIP- Wagner’s is a more normal .269. Putz is .164.

See also: Midseason Grades, MLB, New York Mets

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