Midseason Grades: Seattle Mariners (Part 2)
Listed in: BaseballSo on Monday I graded the position players. Today, the pitchers. Once again, my grades are based on a combination of performance and expectation.
Cha Seung Baek - C: Baek was the guy called up to take Jeff Weaver's spot in the rotation when he went on the DL, and actually did a decent job. His overall numbers (3-3, 5.74 ERA) don't look all that good but his peripherals are actually fairly strong (3.54 K/BB) as he displayed far better control this year than he has in the past. He was just terribly unlucky (.347 BABIP, 58.4% LOB), which explains the high ERA (he's got a 3.73 FIP). If Horacio Ramirez struggles after the break, Baek deserves another shot at the rotation, though with the caveat that the numbers he's posted this season are far better than his career numbers (but in about the same number of innings as he had at the MLB level heading into this year).
Miguel Batista - B-: Batista gets a bit of break in the grading because his worst month was in April, when he posted a 7.54 ERA. Since that point, he's been very solid, with a 3.68 ERA. He's not a great starter, but has thrown a lot of innings at a pretty effective level. His strikeout and walk numbers aren't all that inspiring, but he gets a good number of ground balls. In short, he's a useful pitcher, and gets a useful grade.
Jason Davis - D: Davis had a stint as the long man out of the pen, and was serviceable, I suppose. He's gone now, and I don't really care.
Ryan Feierabend - F: Sure, I understand that the team didn't have very many good options with Ramirez and Baek both hurt. But bringing up a 21-year-old pitcher not named Felix Hernandez is a bad idea. I'm not sure if Feierabend will ever be a major league pitcher, but he's sure not right now. His command is weak, and his one out pitch (a very good change-up) hasn't been enough for him to keep hitters off balance. At this point, he needs to go back to AAA Tacoma and spend the rest of the season pitching down there. Maybe we'll see him again in 2008.
Sean Green - B+: Talk about surprises: Green was always a guy that I figured was mostly just end-of-the-bullpen fodder. But he's started dropping down to a lower arm slot since May and he's become another very strong arm out of the pen for the M's. He strikes out almost a batter per inning, and righties are OPSing just .648 against him this season. While he struggled with his command a bit earlier this year, the recent returns have been encouraging. Plus, he gets a buttload of ground balls. Sounds like my kind of reliever.
Felix Hernandez - B: Ok, so it's been something of an up-and-down season for the King. His first two starts of the year were an eight-inning, two-hit shutout of the A's followed by a one-hit complete game shutout of the Red Sox in Fenway to spoil Dice-K's debut. Then, he hurts his elbow, misses a month, and comes back with a lower arm slot, decreased velocity and movement, and a propensity to throw nothing but fastballs in the first inning or two. He gets beat up, the blogosphere gets outraged, and then finally pitching coach Rafael Chaves gets him to read the open letter that USS Mariner penned, and he starts mixing his pitches. The results? 16 innings, seven hits, two runs. We'll see if he keeps it up after the break.
Julio Mateo - Suspended: The ol' Win Vulture was up to his usual tricks this year, snatching a win away from a more deserving pitcher and continuing to worm his way into high leverage situations for no good reason. Then, he beat his wife, got caught, and got suspended and banished to AAA. Good riddance.
Brandon Morrow - C: Sure, the results (for the most part) have been good. But it's the process that worries me. Morrow needs to be in the minors, working on controlling his excellent fastball and learning how to start, not walking over a batter an inning in the majors. His velocity has dipped over the last month or so, and with the M's having a number of good arms available in the pen it's time for him to be sent down, or at least moved to lower leverage situations. There's still a ton of potential in that right arm, but at least with Morrow it's time to look to the future, not the present. He's in over his head, and that's a dangerous place for a pitcher with no command and a history of arm issues to be.
Eric O'Flaherty - A: Another unsung member of the pen, O'Flaherty has done an excellent job in a variety of roles, including escaping from a bases-loaded, no-out jam on Sunday to keep the Mariners within one run of the A's. He's not a big-time strikeout artist, but he's got good command, gets ground balls, and utterly destroys lefties (.413 OPS against, no extra-base hits). As the second lefty out of the pen, he's about as good as it gets.
J.J. Putz - A+: Putz had a great year last year, and I said that he deserved to considered among the top closers in the game. No more: no one else is on JJ's level this year. He leads all of baseball in Win Probability Added, and his numbers are just ridiculous. 24-24 on saves, 0.88 ERA, 6.3 K/BB, 1.24 GB/FB. Ben will argue that Billy Wagner has been as good, and it's true that some of JJ's uncontrollable peripherals are low (BABIP, LOB). However, just looking at results, no one has been in his league. He hasn't allowed a run since June 2, or in his last 15 appearances. He's the MVP of the pitching staff, and you could make an argument that he's been as valuable as Ichiro to the team.
Horacio Ramirez - F: How in the world can a guy who writes for a major sports website list Bill Bavasi third on a list of the best GMs in the AL? Doesn't Heyman realize that Bavasi's two biggest moves this offseason were to deal two prospects (even if they weren't very good prospects) for a fat, slow DH with no power (oh, and to take on his contract, worth about $14 mil over the next two years) and to acquire a crappy, injury-prone starter with mediocre stuff in return for a really good reliever? Yes, the team is playing well, and he's made some good moves, but let's not get too excited. Ramirez will probably rejoin the rotation after the All-Star Break, and while he's sure to be an improvement on Feierabend I'm not holding my break for a Weaver-esque resurgance. Ramirez has awful stuff (just 3.12 K/9) and middling command (4 BB/9). Yes, he generates grounders, but that's only so useful. His FIP makes him look like a decent #5 guy, and I'd settle for that at this point. But I'd still rather have Rafael Soriano.
Chris Reitsma - F Whether it's because of arm trouble or just plain suckage, Reitsma was a failure in his first go-around as set-up guy. The potential is there to be a useful arm, but he doesn't strike many guys out which means his control has to be spot-on. He's another guy who gets ground balls, so he has his uses, but this team still needs a power right-hander in the eighth inning, and Reitsma just isn't that guy.
George Sherrill - A+: GS52 has been almost as good as Putz this year: 1.29 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 5.8 K/BB, and he's been deadly against all hitters (.336 OPS against versus lefties, .452 against righties). At times the team has seemed willing to let him face right-handers, while lately he's been more like an uber-LOOGY. With the emergence of Green as another right-handed set-up guy, that's been ok, but I want to see Sherrill allowed to face a righty if the need arises.
Jarrod Washburn - B: Another typical Jarrod Washburn season, only this time he's gotten a few more ground balls. His peripherals are what they always are, and his BABIP and LOB are right at league average levels. The only reason his ERA is low (besides a few more grounders) is a 5.1% HR/FB, but that will likely come up soon enough. Washburn's a useful pitcher, and at Safeco he'll keep the team in games.
Jeff Weaver - C: Holy crap, what a bizarre season. If you'd told me on May 10th, after he'd been lit up yet again (this time by the Tigers) that he'd not only still be with the team at the All-Star Break, but that I would be happy about it I probably would have punched you in the face. Whether it really was an arm issue that caused Weaver to be so terrible, or he just needed to figure something mechanical out, he's been 180 degrees different since coming off the DL. His velocity is up, his command has been better, and he's used an assortment of speeds and arm angles to keep hitters off balance. I'm a bit skeptical that he can keep it up, but I hope he does. After single-handedly losing his first four starts of the year, he's almost single-handedly won his last four...bizarre.
Sean White - F: A Rule 5 pick, White's now on the DL with a mysterious arm injury. He was terrible in his limited appearances, and with the depth of the bullpen I can't see him getting into games even if he does come back of the injured list.
