Ah yes, it's that wonderful time of the year again. The blazing summer sun is starting to cool a bit, but winter has not yet gripped our hearts. The baseball races are starting to take shape (sadly with my Mariners clearly on the outside looking in). Most of all, however, September marks the beginning of football season, and with it our yearly Sportszilla NFL picks. This is our third go-around, so let's look back at the past two years of picks:

2005 Final Standings(we didn't start picking until Week 4, which is why we only have 208 games picked):

Zach: 100-99-9
Ben: 92-107-9

Ben and I were pretty close for most of the season, at which point I continued to muck around at .500 while Ben went into the tank. With a showing this poor, we were unsure if we were even going to pick games in 2006.

2006 Final Standings:

Zach: 159-93-4
Bryan: 137-115-4
John: 126-126-4
Ben: 120-132-4

Look at that final record. I may have a long history of suckage in our fantasy baseball and football leagues, but between my NFL picks last year and my two straight NCAA Tournament pool wins, I dominate the gambling side of the group like none other. Of course, it didn't look like even a .500 record was in order after the first four weeks (8-8, 7-9, 7-5-2, 5-9), as I was in last place. But then the fortuitous happened: I was out of town for the weekend, so Ben had to write and post the picks. Instead of just going about his business, he took a gratuitous shot at me. Well, that was all the incentive I needed to kick his sorry ass (in picks, at least). The next four weeks saw me post a winning record each time (7-6-1, 8-5, 8-5, 8-6) which allowed me to move above .500 and into second place, behind Bryan who had come out on fire in the first half. Ben, meanwhile, was rapidly approaching the cellar, a place which he has become accustomed to. The third quarter of the season, however, saw me reach new heights (10-4, 12-4, 8-7-1, 13-3). This, coupled by a slump by my cohorts, left me easily out in first place. However, I wasn't happy with just a win. I had to rub it in over the last five weeks, and so help me I did (11-5, 14-2, 13-3, 9-7, 11-5). Yes, that's right, 13 straight winning weeks. A 14-2 week, two 13-3 weeks, a 12-4 week, two 11-5 weeks, and a 10-4 for good measure. That, my friends, is how you kick some ass.

Now, with all that being said, I have no confidence whatsoever that I'm going to pick games correctly this year. Last year was an unbelievable fluke, but hey, that's ok.

So without further ado, welcome to the 2007 Sportszilla NFL Picks. Let's just go over the ground rules. All games are picked against the spread. Home teams are listed in bold, as are each persons picks. All picks are submitted before games begin, but weeks like this (with a Thursday game), the majority of the games probably won't be posted until Saturday or Sunday. Ben and I are back for another go-around, as is John, who turned in as miraculous a .500 season as you'll ever see, coming from 19 games under .500 at one point to return to respectability. David will be joining us this year, as a little new blood is always welcome.

Also, John has a message: I pride myself on my ability to pick football games, so last year’s performance was an absolute debacle. For me to come in last against these rank amateurs is beyond disgraceful. I guarantee nothing, but anything less than a first place finish will make me want to puke.

This Week

Ben: 7-7-2
David: 9-5-2
John: 7-7-2
Zach: 9-5-2

Colts -6 vs. Saints

Ben: Saints. Football Outsiders says the Colts D will not repeat their playoff performances. Since my own intuition is useless, I'll agree and take the Saints to score lots of points to keep it close. Wrong.
David: Colts. What would happen if Terrance Copper and Anthony Gonzalez fought in the Thunderdome? Gonzalez strikes me as the kind of guy who would be perfectly comfortable in the Finnish wilderness, cutting open his horse for warmth during an Arctic night, then trekking ten miles on foot back to camp the next morning. Copper? Not so much. And therein lies the difference between these two teams. Two men enter, Gonzalez leaves. The character of two talented teams smashed awkwardly into a Mel Gibson movie metaphor, with a hint of Solo on Hoth. Right.
John: Saints. There's a Super Bowl team playing in this game, and it ain't the Colts. Wrong.
Zach: Colts. I'm not that high on the defending Super Bowl champs, but at the same time I'm not high on New Orleans either. It'll be interesting to see how much the retirement of Tarik Glenn affects Peyton Manning, but the Saints defense probably doesn't have the talent to exploit the weakness at left tackle. I'm fully expecting a shootout, but Indy's got the prettier guns. Right.

Bills +3 vs. Broncos

Ben: Bills. Annually I'm not high on the Broncos. They usually prove me wrong by Week 8, but this team wasn't great last year and I'm not sure Travis Henry makes them that much better. Dre' Bly gives them a second corner, but I don't love Cutler in that environment. Eh, I'll take the three with the home team in a tough place to play. Right.
David: Bills. Marshawn Lynch is better than Willis McGahee. JP Losman is in the Alex Smith Tier of NFL QBs (that's not a compliment, in case you were wondering). Jay Cutler still hasn't proven his superior practice skills and style translate to NFL game success. And Mike Shanahan is still testing the hypothesis that running backs are entirely fungible. Both defenses will probably outmatch their opponent offenses, but I expect Buffalo to come up with one more big play at home. Right.
John: Bills. Cutler will get better, but will struggle early on. Take the Bills at home, who are improving. Right.
Zach: Broncos. Buffalo had a surprisingly strong aerial attack last year, led by Lee Evans. Too bad they're facing the best secondary in the NFL. Adding Dre' Bly to Champ Bailey gives Denver a pair of excellent corners, and the safeties, while not as good, are still decent. Yes, Denver was shocked on the road last year (in St. Louis) to open the season, but I don't see it happening again this year. Wrong.

Texans -3 vs. Chiefs

Ben: Texans. I've noticed a few people have the Texans as a sleeper pick this year. They must have seen a different Matt Schaub than I did, who benefited more from Kelly Holcomb Syndrome than anything else. Good news for him is that the Chiefs defense is old, their O-line has no tackles and they have no QB. No matter what good old Herm says, what are the odds Herm actually doesn't run LJ 30 times today? Anyway, Chiefs suck, Texans suck slightly less and are home. I'll give three. Right.

Note: Kelly Holcomb syndrome is when a mediocre QB gains support because in flashes he plays as well as the QB who was drafted much higher than him and thus has higher expectations. It is named for Kelly Holcomb of course, when he managed to take the Browns QB job away from Tim Couch despite being an inferior QB and putting up numbers that were exceptionally mediocre as well.
David: Texans. I have no idea if the Texans offense will be any good this year. They have DeMeco Ryans on defense, at least, and that's enough for me to be confident that the Chiefs terrible offense won't be able to do much in this game. When a running back whose legs are about to fall off thanks to 416 carries the year before and who didn't practice with the team for most of training camp is your best offensive option, I think there's a problem. Right.
John: Texans. Houston is good at home, and the Chiefs aren’t good at all. The only way KC wins is if LJ puts up 175 and minimum 2 scores. On a separate note, Hard Knocks was worth it for a couple reasons. First, I got to see a NFL player legitimately argue a bust of Julius Caesar was in fact, the Statue of Liberty. Second, we got to see how entertaining Herm Edwards can be. The guy is a cartoon character. If he was my coach, I just wouldn’t be able to take him seriously. I would be laughing so hard 24-7 I wouldn’t hear any of his coaching tips. Right.
Zach: Texans. Kansas City will be the worst team in the league this year. I'm a fan of quarterbacks from the University of Washington, but there's a reason Damon Huard has been in the league for a decade and never been an Opening Day starter (until now). Right.

Browns +4.5 vs. Steelers

Ben: Steelers. Charlie "Wiggles" Frye gets one last chance to play himself into a back-up job somewhere else. The future is Brady Quinn. Say what you will about it, because the current day Browns suck so much new Clevelander Aaron Goldhammer wonders if he might be an option on one of Romeo Crennel's now famous coin flips. Despite all of this, I've said Kellen Winslow is the key to David and my fantasy team's dreams of repeating as champions this year. This has prompted laughter from all who have listened. Right.
David: Steelers. Picture Charlie Frye and The Soldier discussing this game over breakfast. If it ends in any scenario other than Frye whimpering, you are wrong. Right.
John: Browns. Yes the Browns suck, but Pittsburgh isn’t a playoff team either. Since it’s in Cleveland figure it’s a FG game, and hope Brady Quinn is in there by the 3rd quarter. Wrong.
Zach: Browns. Yes, they're weak at QB. But the rest of the team is coming around, and I'm unwilling to lay this many points on the road to back a Pittsburgh team with an Everest-sized pile of questions. Wrong.

Redskins -3 vs. Dolphins

Ben: Redskins. The Dolphins are my early pick to be the worst team in the NFL. Push.
David: Redskins. To recap: Cam Cameron essentially had his choice of Daunte Culpepper, Brady Quinn, and Trent Green, and he chose Green. He also had his choice of all but eight rookies, and chose Ted Ginn. He's also had Ronnie Brown returning kicks, and he's planning on making Jesse
Chatman a significant part of the offense. These are the moves of a man who is wild and unwell. Push.
John: Dolphins. I like Trent Green. I don’t like the Redskins. Push.
Zach: Redskins. While Washington is paper-thin, they have some of the best talent in the league. Just about everyone is healthy heading into Week One, so they're the easy choice here against a weak Miami squad. Push.

Packers +3 vs. Eagles

Ben: Eagles. Football Outsiders is a great site, but sometimes they can make predictions that make you scratch your head. See: Green Bay Packers. Even half of their writers thought that one made little sense. The Pack's D might be improved, but the offense will still blow. Wrong.
David: Eagles. I don't think people realize how washed up Brett Favre is. I can point to his rising interception rate, and his rising gray whisker percentage, but in the end, it still won't matter because he's Brett Freaking Favre and his career won't die, like the Predator. Wrong.
John: Eagles. Donovon McNabb and Philly has something to prove and will have a chip on their shoulder in week 1. The Packers will be better this year because of their defense and pass rush, but not in Week 1. Wrong.
Zach: Packers. In a battle between two teams that Football Outsiders is high on, I'm gonna take the Pack at home to start a surprising playoff run on the right foot. Right.

Jaguars -6.5 vs. Titans

Ben: Titans. Victim number two of the Kelly Holcomb Syndrome: Byron Leftwich. I like David Garrard and hope he succeeds (we Crohn's Disease sufferers have to stick together) but he's at best a league average QB. There is no possible way Jack Del Rio could have botched this more unless he went Romeo's route and decided to flip a coin to decide his QB at game time. Also the Jags perennially let me down on lines. So I'm taking Vince Young and the Titans. Right.
David: Jaguars. This is one of those games I only vaguely want to watch. Vince Young and his Uncle Rico throwing motion against a good defense. Yay. Though I think the Jags will have enough D to win this one fairly easily, I'm also a little irrational about the team, because I think their fourth receiver might be their best quarterback. Wrong.
John: Titans. The Jaguars running all over Tennessee scares the hell out of me, especially at home, but Jacksonville plays close games and has a bad quarterback. Right.
Zach: Titans. With Byron Leftwich, I pick the Jags. But we saw last year that David Gerrard is nothing special once you make him your starter. The rest of the Jacksonville squad is very good, but I'm placing faith (and my fantasy team) in the hands of Vince Young. Right.

Jets +6.5 vs. Patriots

Ben: J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. Fun fact- I have not missed a Jets game since 2002 when my grandmother died. That game was against the Patriots. Now out of NY, I feared I might miss this opener. Turns out I'm working Sunday, but that means I'll be near a TV that has the game on. Hooray! Bad news- I'll technically be working and also will be surrounded by Pats fans. Do I think the Jets are worse than the Pats? Sure. But a TD worse at home? Seems like a big line to lay on a road team week one against a team most people think should be able to go 9-7. Wrong.
David: Patriots. Randy Moss is back! Wes Welker is scrappy! Tom Brady is gonna win one for his baby! From 2002 on, the difference between the Patriots and every other team in the league has been their ability to collect talent at the back end of their roster. Some people call this "depth". I call it "understanding that an edge is an edge and it's cheaper to get it at the back end than the front end, so therefore don't go out and pay LaVar Arrington 57 million dollars". The Jets couldn't stop the run last year, they won't stop the run this week, and Chadwick's weak arm is an amuses bouche for a coaching staff like the Pats'. Right.
John: Jets. Mangini’s boys will play his mentor tough, but like they always do, New England will find a way to win. Wrong.
Zach: Patriots. New York is mighty tempting, but New England handled the Jets last year, and while I think the Jets are on the uptick the Patriots are still the kings of the AFC East hill. Right.

Vikings -3 vs. Falcons

Ben: Vikings. Joey Harrington versus the odd multi racial combination of Tarvaris Bollinger. Tarvaris is the super athlete who can't read defenses and Bollinger is the scrappy runner who can't throw. Joey Heisman has trouble with both at times. The difference? The Vikings have an excellent run defense. The Falcons have a defense I guess. The Vikings are susceptible to the pass but it's Joey Harrington here. He hasn't shredded a pass defense since the 2001 Fiesta Bowl. Right.
David: Falcons. Joey Harrington can't suck more than Tarvaris Jackson will this season. While the Vikes probably have the better defense, the Falcons have proven they can run the ball even with a terrible pocket passer under center. Put in a semi-decent pocket passer, and doesn't that put the defense in a more difficult position? Wrong.
John: Falcons. Picking against Minnesota at home, especially in the opener is tough, but this is a gut pick. Tavaris Jackson is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, and it isn’t even close. Wrong.
Zach: Falcons. No way I can pick the destitute man's Michael Vick and give points at the same time, even if it means I have to back Joey Heisman. Wrong.

Rams -1 vs. Panthers

Ben: Rams. New Charlotte-ites David and myself watched the Panthers' third preseason game of the year in person at Bank of America Stadium and could not have come away less impressed than if the Panthers had replaced themselves with the Carolina Tar Heels. Favorite line of the night from David: "Kris Jenkins looks like the guy who ate Kris Jenkins." Wrong.
David: Rams. Ben and I went to the Pats-Panthers preseason game, and there was no shortage of "Number 77 is the guy who ate Kris Jenkins" jokes. Granted, it was preseason, and
thus fake football, but we also noticed two other important issues: First, the Panthers defensive scheme was surprisingly bad. Whether this was a real problem or a front or what still isn't clear. Specifically, they never actually covered the guys that would make sense with their personnel. You know, linebackers on the tight end, corners on the receivers. It was muddled on every freaking play. Then, the other issue: It's true that David Carr just looks better on the field than Jake Delhomme. Now that Delhomme has a backup that's a more palatable option than Chris Weinke or Rodney Peete, the Old Brett Favre Lite routine may finally bite him in the ass and
get him benched. First week? Probably not, and thus too late for Carolina. But it's definitely coming. Wrong.
John: Rams. Carolina is on a downward slide a little, and their defense won’t be able to contain the Rams at home in the dome. Wrong.
Zach: Panthers. St. Louis has no defense, and while they'll score points I can't see them winning this game. Right.

Chargers -6 vs. Bears

Ben: Chargers. I think Chicago is extremely overrated. Said it last year and I'll say it this year. By the way, can anyone think of the last Florida quarterback who amounted to anything? Maybe Rex can have a very successful career on NBC reality TV shows living up to his nickname or become a surprisingly good analyst. Right.
David: Chargers. Sexy Rexy on the road, against Shawn "Nobody Gets Worked Up About My 'Roid Use" Merriman and an otherwise solid defense. That's all you need to know. I'm a little hesitant because Norv Turner is a bit of a wild card as a head coach, but who knows?
Maybe something's changed in the past year. Right.
John: Bears. A great defense getting six points, you can’t go wrong. Wrong.
Zach: Chargers. Sometimes you just have to make the easy pick. Right.

Raiders -2 vs. Lions

Ben: Raiders. I think the Raiders will be not terrible this year. Am I crazy? Probably. But on the other hand, who thinks the Lions will be any good? Jon Kitna and Mike Millen, put your hands down. Besides, I might finally get a chance to pick Josh McCown and actually win the pick. Wrong.
David: Raiders. I hate myself for this pick, but I have to make it for a couple reasons. First, I love and hate Mike Martz; love for the "F you" style of playcalling, hate for the SEC-fan-level arrogance, and I'm in a hate mood right now. Second, because I really want to see Josh McCown beat that defense. It'll be a legitimately great battle between the Lions' offensive firepower and the Raiders' unrelenting defense, but I might actually do a jig if Mike Williams catches the game-sealing TD pass from McCown. Wrong.
John: Lions. A very good offense against a very bad team. Right.
Zach: Raiders. Two bad teams, but the Raiders at least have a great defense. The Lions have Matt Millen. Wrong.

Seahawks -6 vs. Buccaneers

Ben: Seahawks. Seattle is going to win the NFC West. How do I know this? Because Pete Prisco did his annual song and dance choosing this version of the "highly improved Cardinals" to win the division. I've seen this show before and will not make that mistake again. Short story- Bucs have no offense and the Hawks are at home. Right.
David: Seahawks. Bold prediction: Jeff Garcia will not reach 150 yards passing. Right.
John: Seahawks. The Bucs seem like a team in disarray to me, the Seahawks on the other hand should have a big time rebound season. Right.
Zach: Seahawks. I hate this pick. Right.

Cowboys -6 vs. Giants

Ben: Giants. Why are Giants fans happy to see Tiki Barber go? He's been their only significantly above average player since…well...since the Parcells era. Eli Manning had trouble when teams were focusing on Tiki, why would he do better when they don't have to? The good news this week is Dallas is beat up on defense. Also Tony Romo- this is planet Earth. I know it's a change, but you two are going to spending a lot of time together this year. Wrong.
David: Cowboys. I had a discussion with a Giants fan earlier this summer which began with him saying: "If Eli can throw the ball more accurately, he'd be a great quarterback." John and I couldn't resist. "So," we said in so many words, "You're saying that IF Elisha could throw the ball STRAIGHT and actually throw it WHERE HE WANTS TO that he would be a good quarterback? Let's reiterate: Elisha can't THROW THE BALL STRAIGHT, but IF he could THROW THE BALL STRAIGHT he'd be a good quarterback. We completely agree." Elisha can't throw the ball straight. Thus, the Giants will lose handily to a perfectly capable Cowboys team. Right.
John: Cowboys. I really don’t like this high spread, but for mojo reasons I can’t go any other way. The Dallas injuries to Glenn and Newman should terrify any real Cowboys fan, and they could cripple them throughout the season if they are out. Right.
Zach: Cowboys. This one too. See, I don't think the Seahawks or Cowboys are that good, but I can't see either the Bucs or Giants winning. Picking teams to lose but cover is like expecting the new Indiana Jones movie to be any good...all the optimism in the world can't save it. Right.

Bengals -2.5 vs. Ravens

Ben: Ravens. I get the sneaking suspicion this is the year Rudi Johnson gets old. And if he does, then suddenly the Bengals attack gets far less balanced. The Ravens are getting less than a field goal, but I really don't love Cinci's team. Wrong.
David: Bengals. The Ravens are a better overall team, but I expect Cinci to pull out a tense one at home. I was on the fence with this one until I found out the Bengals were going with their least-ugly uniform combo. Right.
John: Bengals. If Cincinnati wants to challenge for a Super Bowl, this is their chance to prove they can. The defense has to slow down Mcnair and not put so much pressure on Carson Palmer and co. Right.
Zach: Ravens. My AFC representative in the Super Bowl gets off to strong start by beating down the over-rated Bengals. Wrong.

49ers -3 vs. Cardinals

Ben: Cardinals. The Cardinals are fool's gold. Every year they have something to give you optimism because, let's face it, it's hard to actually get worse from where they have been over the last, oh I don't know, let's just say ever. And every year people are suckered into picking them because they have to eventually get good right? Well here's what I say; imagine this famous Simpsons line:

Accountant: "Let me get this straight, you took all the money you spent franchising your name and bet it AGAINST the Harlem Globetrotters???"

Krusty: "Oooooooooh… I thought the Generals were due!!! He's SPINNING THE BALL ON HIS FINGER!! JUST TAKE IT!!! That game was rigged! They were using a freaking ladder."

The Cardinals could use a ladders and it still wouldn't help. But on the other hand, San Fran was statistically one of the worst teams in football last year. Just thought I'd point that out. Push.
David: Cardinals. I'm resigned to disappointment with Alex Smith. That my team has to face Matt Leinart twice per season only makes it worse. Unless Patrick Willis and Nate Clements combine for a big defensive upgrade, I expect this Niners team to lose a lot of 31-21 games. Frank Gore will do what he does, but Smith is firmly entrenched in the bottom tier of NFL starting QBs, and the Cards' run game has to improve from last year now that Russ Grimm is in charge. Push.
John: Cardinals. Despite thoughts last year was their year, I like this team better with the new staff. I never liked Dennis Green much as a coach, and the Steelers crew knows what they’re doing. San Fran won’t be too bad this season either, but take the points. And by the way – this is the worst Monday night game ever. Push.
Zach: 49ers. How does this end up as a prime-time game for the second year in a row? Shouldn't we make San Francisco or Arizona actually win something before they get exposure? Push.