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Baseball and Blink, Revisited

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Before the baseball season, I had the boys participate in a little experiment. They each picked teams made up entirely of free agents. Ben did it based on poring over numbers and making carefully considered decisions. Zach and John did it based on first instinct. My friend, Aria, did it based entirely on random guessing, as she has little to no knowledge of baseball players. We'll ignore her picks now, but here's a quick and dirty analysis of the players Ben, Zach, and John picked. All stats via The Hardball Times, unless noted otherwise.

PITCHER
Ben - Mussina -- 5.33 RA, 4.11 FIP, 51 PRC
Zach - Clemens -- 4.73 RA, 4.28 FIP, 39 PRC
John - Clemens

Mussina gained about a win more on the season, but that was almost entirely tied to playing time, as these two guys were basically a wash on the mound, ratewise.

CATCHER
Ben - Piazza -- 275/313/414, 39 PRC
Zach - Bengie Molina -- 276/298/433, 66 RC
John - Bengie Molina

Piazza was injured much of the year despite DH-ing most of the time. Molina was 7th in RC of all MLB catchers. Injuries aren't the only reason Piazza was removed from catching duties; he was never among the best defensive backstops, and what positive attributes he had degraded as he grew older. Molina wasn't terrible, and that made him a more valuable player this season.

FIRST BASE
All - Nomar -- 283/328/371, 65 RC
Disastrous. Nomar was moved to 3B before the All Star break to make room for James Loney. Still didn't help.

SECOND BASE
Ben - Ray Durham -- 218/196/343, 49 RC
Zach - Mark Loretta -- 287/352/372, 63
John - Marcus Giles -- 229/304/317, 51

Even accounting for park factors, Loretta had the best season out of this group. None of these guys makes his living as a power hitter, so the parks wouldn't hurt these particular guys as much as other hitters, and getting on base has been their primary skill. Loretta actually excelled at that. He even slotted in at shortstop while Adam Everett was out.

SHORTSTOP
All - Lugo -- 237/294/349, 64 RC
He had to have been a tremendous defensive player to make that offensive suckitude worthwhile. Middle of the pack, according to both THT and Tangotiger's Fans Scouting Report, does not jive with tremendous.

THIRD BASE
All - Aramis -- 310/366/549, 97 RC
On top of solid offense, Aramis allegedly played very good defense this year. He was the clear cut selection for all involved, even with the suspect defense before the season.

OUTFIELD (LF-CF-RF)
Ben - Bonds (277/480/565, 92), Drew (270/373/423, 67 RC), Alou (342/392/524, 56 RC)
Zach - Soriano (299/337/560, 93 RC), Edmonds (252/325/403, 45 RC), Drew
John - Soriano, Edmonds, Drew

DH
Ben - Soriano
Zach - Bonds
John - Carlos Lee -- 303/354/528, 111 RC

Ben tried to get cute by insisting on DHing Soriano and playing Bonds in the field. Besides that, the only difference was the disagreement over Edmonds vs. Alou. Defensively, even at this stage of his career, Edmonds is probably as good as or better than JD Drew in center field, and Drew is just as good or better than Alou in a corner position. In the end, Ben's decision to play Bonds in the field gives the edge to the other guys, as everything else is roughly a wash. Zach wins for making optimal choices, including Bonds over Lee at DH, where he likely would have been able to get even more at bats.

===

On a mostly unrelated note, October 17 is the anniversary of the Loma Prieta earthquake, otherwise known as the temblor that interrupted the 1989 World Series. I know the disaster is inextricably tied to baseball, but as a San Franciscan the disaster helped shape who I am by drastically altering my city's and region's face and sense of itself.

See also: Baseball, Prognostication

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Comments

I like the pick of Bengie Molina. He had a great year for the Giants and will be a HUGE asset to their ball club moving forward.

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