MLB Award Show Pre-Party
Listed in:Now that baseball's regular season is over, and we have a day until the playoffs begin and Dane Cook inflicts himself on an unwitting populace once more, let's discuss the MLB season awards and make a few predictions. I'll name who I think the BBWAA will vote as the winner, who most deserves it, a few other contenders, and, just to spice things up a bit, the NBA player equivalent of the guys I think should win. Ready?
NL MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
Who Should Win: David Wright
Who Will Win: Matt Holliday
Others Receiving Votes: Prince Fielder, Jake Peavy, Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Jose Reyes
David Wright was the best hitter on the best team in the league, with more Runs Created per 27 outs than anyone other than Fielder, Chase Utley, and Chipper Jones. On top of that, he played good infield defense. He won't win the award, though, because his traditional stat line is 311/30/107. That's good, but it's not as shiny as Matt Holliday's 340/36/137, which will overcome any bias against Coors Field hitters. Holliday will have the veneer of Batting Champion and RBI Crown, not to mention the bonus of playing one of the most exciting games this season just last night.
As for the others, Fielder has the jacks, but because his team tailed off, he won't get serious consideration. The same applies to Cabrera and Ramirez, who both had phenomenal offensive seasons. Neither played good defense, either. The only other serious contender for the award after Holliday and Wright is Jimmy Rollins, who had a 30-30 season while leading the Phils' pennant charge. Unfortunately for him, chicks--and the BBWAA--dig the long ball.
Wright's NBA counterpart: Dwight Howard
NL CY YOUNG
Who Should Win: Jake Peavy
Who Will Win: Jake Peavy
Others Receiving Votes: Brandon Webb, John Smoltz, Aaron Harang, Roy Oswalt.
There really isn't much of an argument against Peavy. The good ol' boy from Alabama was dominant start after start. It doesn't matter that Petco Park is the best pitcher's park in baseball, as Peavy was just as unhittable on the road as he was at home. That's what happens when you're striking guys out like I do when I play Wiffle with my 6 year old cousins.
Peavy's NBA counterpart: Tim Duncan
NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Who Should Win: Troy Tulowitzki
Who Will Win: Ryan Braun
Others Receiving Votes: Tim Lincecum, Hunter Pence, Chris Young, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Hamilton
Lincecum came to the majors as one of the most-hyped prospects in recent memory, and he was probably the best rookie pitcher in the league this year, but he suffered from a lack of control, putting up an unsightly 4.0 BB/9. Only Yovani Gallardo came close to him among the rookie pitchers. Pence tore up the Pacific Coast League before the Astros finally put an end to the Chris Burke experience at the end of April. While he struck out way too much and didn't get many walks, he ended with a tremendous 322/360/539 line. Even if he can't live up to that next year, it looks like the 'Stros have a player they can build around during Lance Berkman's inevitable decline.
Ryan Braun came on the scene as The Guy Every Fantasy Player Scrambled After, but then settled into the middle of the Brewers' lineup, eventually ending with 324/370/634. Pairing 112 strikeouts with only 29 walks indicates he likely won't sustain that production next year. But then again, this was easily the best rookie season at the plate since Albert Pujols.
Braun should not win the ROY, though, because, by many accounts, his defense is atrocious. Tulowitzki, on the other hand, played Gold Glove caliber defense at shortstop and wasn't exactly embarrassing at the dish, putting up a 291/359/479 line. If we go just by available numbers, I suspect Braun would come out a touch ahead of Tulo, even with the bad D, but there's something to be said for having a defensive anchor who can hit. Looking forward, while Tulo's Home/Road splits are pretty dramatic, it's still not enough to say he is that guy, and I think his core hitting skills are better than Braun's, in that he doesn't swing at as many bad balls.
Tulowitzki's NBA counterpart: Brandon Roy
AL MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
Who Should Win: Alex Rodriguez
Who Will Win: Alex Rodriguez
Others Receiving Votes: If a writer puts someone else at number one, he or she should have voting privileges revoked.
Alex Rodriguez has a long way to go before he can be lumped in among the best baseball players of all time, but in the meantime he's easily one of the three best position players of his generation. There are only three other semi-acceptable AL MVP votes if we eliminate pitchers from the pool (more on them, later): Ichiro Suzuki, who was one of the ten best hitters in the league and one of the most valuable defenders, Magglio Ordonez, and David Ortiz, both of whom hit the crap out of the ball while playing either awful or non-existent defense. However, only Ichiro came close to matching ARod's superior hitting and at least average defense.
ARod's NBA counterpart: Kevin Garnett
AL CY YOUNG
Who Should Win: C.C. Sabathia
Who Will Win: Josh Beckett
Others Receiving Votes: Johan Santana, Fausto Carmona, Jon Lackey, Dan Haren
Beckett was probably the second best pitcher in the league this year. He comes even with Sabathia in most major categories, except that he pitched about 40 fewer innings. Also, Beckett reached 20 wins, which the writers association could consider a greater accomplishment, and he pitched for the Red Sox. Sabathia, Santana, and Beckett were the clear three best pitchers in the league, so I guess you could say all three are deserving.
Sabathia's NBA counterpart: Chris Bosh
AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Who Should Win: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Who Will Win: Dustin Pedroia
Others Receiving Votes: Akinori Iwamura, Hideki Okajima, Reggie Willits, Jeremy Guthrie
I don't like putting Matsuzaka there because he's not really a rookie; the guy was a major leaguer for years, and a tremendous one at that, just not in this country. I'd apply the same logic to Iwamura and Okajima, too. However, as long as the guidelines for the award hold that players who are in their first MLB season are rookies, Matsuzaka and other such players deserve that recognition. I think the Angel Berroa-Hideki Matsui debacle, though, indicates a trend of voting against Japanese "rookies", so we'll see the Sox's second baseman get the honor.
Today, one of my coworkers told me to check out Pedroia's line. I hadn't realized how good a hitter this kid is. Starting next year, the Red Sox can lead him off with Youkilis second. Put Ellsbury in the nine hole, and thats a good mix of OBP and speed (Youkilis isn't that slow, I'm telling you) ahead of the boppers. The rest of the AL rookie crop is kind of uninspiring, a melange of Devil Rays and guys still getting up to speed.
Matsuzaka's NBA counterpart: Mehmet Okur
I'm not the only one with such musings. Check out the Hardball Times column on who will win the MVP awards.
