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NFL Picks - Week Eight

Listed in: Football

Ok, so apparently the whole "Simpsons quotes" thing didn't work out so well, as I posted my first losing record of the season. And they were such good quotes! Anyhow, John is in London with the Giants this week (lucky bastard), so you'll have to make do with just picks, no commentary from him, which is too bad, because I'd love to see him explain how he picked both 0-7 teams this week.

As always, picks are against the spread and home teams are bolded.

This Week

Ben: 9-4
David: 7-6
John: 8-5
Zach: 8-5

Rams +3 vs. Browns

Ben: Browns. 0-16! 0-16! 0-16!!! Right.
David: Browns. Derek Anderson is the best QB the Browns have had since Vinny Testaverde in 1995. That’s only as of now. If he plays out the rest of this season like he has, you can make the argument he’s the best quarterback Cleveland’s had since the halcyon days of Bernie Kosar. Right.
John: Rams. Wrong.
Zach: Browns. Add Scott Linehan's name to the long list of "good coordinators who should never have become head coaches." Yes, they've had injury problems, but I've seen corpses who show more emotion than St. Louis. Right.

Bears -5 vs. Lions

Ben: Lions. Football Outsiders have the Lions as having a better DVOA than the Bears. Even if that may not mean the Lions are better, it shows the Bears are getting too many points in this game. Right.
David: Lions. Bri-an Grie-se! Clap-Clap ClapClapClap! Bri-an Grie-se! Clap-Clap ClapClapClap! Right.
John: Lions. Right.
Zach: Bears. Clearly, this isn't the week for loving Jesus (just look at the World Series). Wrong.

Giants -9.5 vs. Dolphins (no home team, since the game is in freaking London)

Ben: Giants. 0-16! 0-16! 0-16!!!! Wrong.
David: Giants. Eli Manning’s end is nigh. The day is coming when an otherwise solid New York Giants team loses a playoff game due to Eli’s ineptitude. I’m thinking that after this season the team says, “Screw it. We’re getting a better quarterback and going for it all while we still have Strahan and Osi.” Not Pennington. The Iggles won’t trade McNabb. Ladies and gentlemen, now wearing blue, Byron Leftwich! Wrong.
John: Dolphins. Right.
Zach: Giants. I wonder if Ben would be rooting for 0-16 if it were the Jets in the position? Wrong.

Panthers +6 vs. Colts

Ben: Colts. The Colts and Patriots are neck and neck in FO's DVOA this year. If this were the Pats favored by six, would you jump on them? Of course you would. Besides the Panthers are overrated and have Vinny Testaverde starting at QB. Right.
David: Colts. John Fox’s seat will be a little warmer. Kris Jenkins will prove, yet again, that he just doesn’t give a damn anymore. Right.
John: Colts. Right.
Zach: Colts. Sure, the Panthers are 4-2. Well, 4-3 now. Right.

Bengals +3.5 vs. Steelers

Ben: Steelers. DVOA would suggest this is the near lock of the week. The Steelers have been one of the best teams in the league this year. The Bengals have been at best mediocre. I think this game will be close, but I'll still take the Steelers. Right.
David: Bengals. I love the Steelers. They’re a very good team. They can do a lot of things well. But I can’t pick them on the road against a frustrated Bengals team with a lot to prove. The Cinci offense can still break anyone, and I expect them to do just that to Pittsburgh. Wrong.
John: Steelers. Right.
Zach: Steelers. Last time they went west and lost a close game, they throttled a mediocre team the next week. I expect it to happen again. Right.

Vikings +1 vs. Eagles

Ben: Eagles. DVOA always loves the Eagles even though they never seem to play up to their high marks. Good thing the birdies are facing a team with Kelly Holcomb at QB. Also, the fact they love to throw bodes well against one of the most unbalanced defensive units in the league. Right.
David: Vikings. Don’t you want to punch the guy who picked Adrian Peterson in the second round of your fantasy draft? Wrong.
John: Eagles. Right.
Zach: Eagles. Sigh, like Ben I'm a sucker for a sexy DVOA. Right.

Titans -7.5 vs. Raiders

Ben: Titans. Since I'm basically using FO entirely to make my picks, I'm going against the grain here. I wouldn't take the Titans in this spot, but the Raiders are one of three worst DVOA teams in the league. The Titans just miss on being in the top five. Add in the road game and I'll take Tennessee. Wrong.
David: Titans. The Raiders have sunk so low as a franchise that they’re essentially an afterthought on the NFL scale of things. They’re lower on the NFL scale than Sunderland is in the Premiership. (This soccer joke brought to you by the good people of northeast England! As long as we’re playing gridiron games there, we might as well acknowledge them). Wrong.
John: Raiders. Right.
Zach: Titans. Road dog I can't imagine winning? Not going near that one. Wrong.

Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Jaguars

Ben: Jaguars. I'm going against DVOA here. The Jaguars defense is killer against teams that don't throw the ball deep. Jeff Garcia does not. So Quinn Gray and all, I'm taking the Jags. Right.
David: Buccaneers. The Jags are starting a backup QB, and the Bucs are still under the radar as a surprisingly competent team. I’m willing to put my faith in Old Jeff Garcia more than Craptacular Quinn Gray. Wrong.
John: Buccaneers. .
Zach: Buccaneers. This game is interesting. People will say that expecting the Jaguars to collapse puts an undue amount of credit on the importance of the quarterback. Which might have been true in past years. But so far this season, David Gerrard has been the best mortal quarterback in the AFC. Losing him hurts the Jags far more than you'd think. Wrong.

Jets -3 vs. Bills

Ben: Bills. I don't know what I can say here that hasn't already been said. Kellen Clemens should be starting because this season is lost. Seriously guys, it's over. 2008 should begin now. Right.
David: Bills. Wait. Trent Edwards is already proficient at running a no-huddle offense? W-T-F, mate? In any event, he’s already better than JP Losman, which isn’t saying much, but it does mean that Marshawn Lynch isn’t alone among the playmakers. Right.
John: Jets. Wrong.
Zach: Bills. I have just one wish for this game. Lee Evens, please score a goddamn touchdown for once in your miserable existence. Right, but I shouldn't have expected Gary Kubiak to be anything other than a complete and total dick. If the guy is probable, he plays. Don't expect him to play? List him as doubtful, or questionable. Jerk..

Chargers -10 vs. Texans

Ben: Texans. Norv Turner is giving up ten points? Norv Turner? Really? Forget it. Give me the Texans. Wrong.
David: Chargers. If Norv Turner screws up this game, one with so many emotional overtones… Wait, what am I saying? Of course, he’ll screw up. He’s Norv Turner! The players are too talented to let him lose this game for them, though. Right.
John: Texans. Wrong.
Zach: Texans. Too many questions about San Diego and their focus for me to give 10. Wrong.

49ers +2.5 vs. Saints

Ben: Saints. I said I wouldn't pick the Niners the rest of the way unless they were playing the Rams and I'm sticking to it. Right.
David: Saints. Alex Smith is on notice. Also, I’m still waiting for the right moment to buy a Frank Gore jersey. Gotta be the red one. The Niners are similar to the Raiders last year: they have gaping holes on offense, but the defense is surprisingly good. Right.
John: Saints. Right.
Zach: Saints. Alex Smith coming back might help a bit, but not nearly enough. Right.

Patriots -16.5 vs. Redskins

Ben: Redskins. The Pats are 3-0 against 3 score lines. However, this is the best team they've faced with a line this big. I'll take the points, figuring no team can average a margin of victory of 3 scores in every game they win. Unless, of course, we're talking West Virginia in college football this year. (True- the Mountaineers have one loss, to USF, and have beaten every other team they've played this year by at least 17 points.) Wrong.
David: Redskins. The Pats are far and away the best team in the league, but this is their trap game. They’ll win, but it won’t be by three scores. Wrong.
John: Redskins. Wrong.
Zach: Patriots. Up until this very moment, I was sure I'd pick the Redskins. I know it's three scores. I know the Redskins are a good team, perhaps the best the Patriots have faced. I know they're due for a down game. But damnit, I'm taking the Patriots anyhow.Right.

Broncos -3 vs. Packers

Ben: Packers. Are the Broncos back? Maybe in the AFC West race. But with questions on offense and defense, I don't trust them against a stout Packers D and a decent offense. Right.
David: Packers. Does anyone else think Jay Cutler looks like a super young and pudgy Curt Schilling? No? I'm crazy? Okay. Right.
John: Packers. Right.
Zach: Packers. How is it that we get back-to-back primetime games in Denver this year, and yet next week's Indy-New England game is just a regular old CBS late game? Seriously, who thought this was a good idea? Right.

Last Week

Ben: 6-8
David: 8-6
John: 5-9
Zach: 6-8

Season Standings

Zach: 64-44-8
David: 58-50-8
Ben: 48-60-8
John: 41-67-8

See also: Gambling, NFL, NFL Picks, Prognostication

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