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NFL Picks - Week Eleven

Listed in: Football

Sorry these are up so late, but me drinking a ton last night after work and David sending his picks in this morning equals a short write up.

All picks are against the spread, home teams are bolded

This Week

Ben: 9-6-1
David: 7-8-1
John: 9-6-1
Zach: 13-2-1

Jaguars -3 vs. Chargers

Ben: Jaguars. DVOA says the Chargers have actually been a better team this year. Of course that doesn't factor in the injury to David Garrard, who is back this week. At home, against a Chargers team that took advantage of a beat up Colts team only to nearly blow it in the second half, I'll take the Jags. Right.
David: Jaguars. Norv kills me. Right.
John: Jaguars. I’m about as down on the Chargers after their win last week, than I have been all season along. The Jaguars on the other hands are coming off a monster win against the Titans, and see a chance to move towards first place with the Colts battered by injuries. Plus, Garrard will likely start. Right.
Zach: Jaguars. The win over the Colts was a mirage, a figment, like the idea that Norv Turner should be an NFL head coach. Right.

Ravens +2.5 vs. Browns

Ben: Browns. Now here's a line I bet you never expected to see coming into the season. The Ravens get a boost because Air McNair maybe permanently grounded but their secondary has been a joke all season. The Browns' strength is through the air, and Mr. Anderson should have easier pickings this week than he did last week against the Steelers. Right.
David: Browns. My, how the mighty have fallen. I suspect this will be the first game the Ravens give up more than 31 points at home since they moved to Baltimore. Right.
John: Browns. Despite the fact Kyle Boller is finally starting, the Ravens are a team in disarray and the Browns will be angry off their loss last week. Right.
Zach: Browns. Ok, I agree, the Ravens suck. Right.

Eagles -10 vs. Dolphins

Ben: Eagles. Back in college, I had a professor who railed against the "War on Drugs". We read books which essentially painted it as a needless waste of money which punished minorities for no real good reason. Push.

Why do I bring this up?

Because Ricky Williams has essentially not been able to play in the NFL because he smokes weed. WEED! In a league that employs thieves, vehicular manslaughter-ists, guys who have illegal armories in their homes etc… Williams cannot play because he has the nerve to smoke pot in his own free time. Now tell me, how does Williams' suspensions make any sense compared to what else NFL players do?
David: Eagles. Miami stinks to high heaven. I really can’t justify any reason for Cam Cameron to keep his job after this season. Push.
John: Eagles. I think Philly might make a run at the postseason. Westbrook is healthy and Mcnabb is rounding back into form. Push.
Zach: Eagles. Is John Beck, who spent two years on a Mormon mission, God's third-string QB?Push.

Falcons +3 vs. Buccaneers

Ben: Buccaneers. Somewhat scary pick because of the possibility Byron Leftwich plays. His ability to throw the deep ball makes the Dirty Birds' offense borderline mediocre. Still, the Bucs should be the better team, right? Right.
David: Falcons. Another “whatever happens, I couldn’t have predicted it” game. Can we put a moratorium on Joey Harrington jokes if he wins, or am I allowed to make fun of him, still? Wrong.
John: Buccaneers. The Falcons still stink. The Bucs are off a bye and see the Saints making a potential run at first place. They make a statement in this game. Right.
Zach: Buccaneers. No way this line should be so low, the Bucs are the class of that (admittedly awful) division. Look for them to separate from the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers today. Right.

Vikings -5 vs. Raiders

Ben: Vikings. I got burned last week taking the Raiders against an even worse team than the Vikes in the Bears, and the silver n' black and blue were at home. This week they're on the road. Chester Taylor is no Adrian Peterson, but the Raiders run defense has been gashed pretty badly this year. By the way, remember when Oakland was in first place in the AFC West? Right.
David: Vikings. I hate picking this game. Minny has no top class running back, anymore, nor do they have any semblance of a passing game, but Oakland’s so bad that I have to take the home team. Right.
John: Vikings. Without Adrian Peterson, this is a lot of points even if it is against the Raiders. Never the less, I’ll go with my gut here. Right.
Zach: Vikings. Sure, Purple Jesus is great, but with the Minny O-Line and the Raiders run defense, even I could probably crack 100 yards. Right.

Bengals -3 vs. Cardinals

Ben: Bengals. wo teams with surprisingly similar DVOAs, so I'm taking the home team. Plus, after their win last week, the Cardinals have just suckered a bunch of people into believing they can win the NFC West. You know what that means, don't you, Mr. Prisco (In all seriousness, Pete Prisco might not be the worst football writer on Sportsline these days. Check out some of the stuff Clark Judge wrote this week. Just plain awful.)? Wrong.
David: Bengals. Trust the home team will take care of business between two fairly even teams. Wrong.
John: Bengals. I haven’t picked either of these teams right all year long. Here’s to some possible Cincy momentum. They have too much talent to keep losing. Wrong.
Zach: Bengals. Can't pick the road team. Wrong.

Colts -14.5 vs. Chiefs

Ben: Chiefs. The Colts have been a much better team than the Chiefs this year, but with half the team now missing due to injury, does that mean very much? Even at home, two scores seems to be a lot to be handing out to a team without two left tackles, all their starting linebackers, two receivers maybe a tight end and their best player on defense. Heck, the Colts are so hurt, the Chiefs might be able to steal this one outright. Right.
David: Colts. “All I’m saying is, Peyton Manning has landed!” (I’m quoting some dude from Charlotte, NC, talk radio who pulled this one out when the Colts played the Panthers. When Priest Holmes, 2007 version, is the primary back, that’s a huge problem.) Wrong.
John: Chiefs. The Colts are all banged up, and haven’t won many games big all season long. Right.
Zach: Chiefs. Way too many injuries to take Indy. Right.

Lions +2.5 vs. Giants

Ben: Lions. I don't think the G-Men are all that good. Give me the decent team they've beaten. Washington? The Lions are built to pass and that does not bode well for a pass rush that only seems to thrive against bad lines. Wrong.
David: Lions. Knocking off a top team, even at home, will give them a little bit of an edge come playoff time. Somewhere, Wayne Fontes weeps for joy. Wrong.
John: Lions. This is a gut feeling game, and a test to see exactly how many levels below the Dallas and the other upper echelon teams the Giants really are. The answer turns out to be disappointing. Wrong.
Zach: Giants. I'm playing the "never been there" card with the Lions, at least the Giants are used to looking like a good team before collapsing. Right.

Texans -1 vs. Saints

Ben: Saints. Flip a coin. Wrong.
David: Texans. I feel like the Saints won’t have answers for the Texans’ defense. They’ll be able to contain Reggie Bush with minimal concessions to the passing game. Right.
John: Saints. The Saints aren’t what they were last year (as evidenced by losing to the Rams last week) but they are still loads better than Houston. Wrong.
Zach: Texans. The Saints are bad. Reggie Bush isn't a good NFL player. But hey, at least everything in New Orleans is back to normal, right? Right.

Packers -9.5 vs. Panthers

Ben: Packers. Arguably the best team in the NFC goes up against Vinny Testeverde. I've seen how this story ends before- it is not pretty for Vinny and Co. Right.
David: Packers. Not even close. This has three-touchdown-lead potential. Right.
John: Packers. The Panthers quarterbackless offense gets dominated by Green Bay D, which might be the best in the NFC. Right.
Zach: Packers. That Cowboys-Packers match-up in two weeks looks pretty darn good, doesn't it. Right.

Jets +9.5 vs. Steelers

Ben: Steelers. I'm riding the Kellen Clemens bandwagon. I love mobile quarterbacks so after rushing for 48 yards in his first start, Clemens has won my affections. Plus since he's white, there's none of the "Ben only likes him because he's a black QB". Too bad Clemens has many of the same flaws Chad Pennington does; he can't tackle, rush the passer, stop the run, or defend the pass. Wrong.
David: Steelers. The third best team in the game will wallop one of the bottom feeders. Wrong.
John: Jets. The Jets have played a lot of teams close this season, and the Steelers might let down after the barn-burner to Cleveland last week. Right.
Zach: Jets. This Pittsburgh team has a tendency to let down against the weakest teams on their schedule. Right.

Cowboys -10.5 vs. Redskins

Ben: Cowboys. Dallas showed they're one of two teams at the head of the NFC class last week against the Giants. The Skins are inconsistent at best with an offense that seems to be lacking in guys who can catch the football. Much like fantasy football, you don't spend big bucks on WR. But hey, at least Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd are set for life. Wrong.
David: Cowboys. Rivalry game. Washington’s been unpredictable to my mind, so I’m taking the NFC’s best team at home. Wrong.
John: Redskins. The Cowboys are going to lose a game they shouldn’t eventually. This is a potential let down after two huge division wins on the road. Historically these franchises play close games. Right.
Zach: Cowboys. Too much talent on offense for the Redskins to keep up. Wrong.

49ers +3 vs. Rams

Ben: Rams. Wins are for teams that are in the playoff hunt. The Niners are not, so I have little inhibition in saying they are the worst team in football and their wins don't mean a damn thing to me. Right.
David: 49ers. Ugly. Ugly. Game. Can we institute XFL rules just this once? Let hilarity ensue! Wrong.
John: Rams. A little second half run by the Rams make their season look not as sucky as first expected. Right.
Zach: Rams. Do. Not. Watch. Right.

Seahawks -5.5 vs. Bears

Ben: Seahawks. People need to realize there are approximately 4 teams in the NFL worse than the Bears. The Seahawks are not one of them. Right.
David: Seahawks. The Bears’s freefall continues in a tough road game. Kyle Orton sighting? Right.
John: Bears. All aboard the Rex express! If they are to make a playoff run it must start now. The Seahawks dominated an awful team last week, and I’m still not impressed. Wrong.
Zach: Seahawks. This team, as they currently stand, is the third best in the NFC. Right.

Bills +16 vs. Patriots

Ben: Patriots. The Pats are going to win the Super Bowl. I've accepted it, remembered that I predicted it at the start of the year, and am moving on. Right.
David: Patriots. I’m never picking against them again this season. Right.
John: Bills. The Pats can’t beat everyone by 20 can they? Wrong.
Zach: Patriots. After a one-week hiatus, the Patriots are back, carrying my picks. Right.

Broncos -2 vs. Titans

Ben: Titans. Albert Haynesworth might not be there to stop the Broncos rushing attack, but who on Denver is going to stop Tennessee's decent one? Wrong.
David: Titans. Tennessee will give Denver the early-2000s Broncos treatment. Denver can’t stop the run game led by a decent line and (shockingly) competent LenDale White. Vince Young won’t hurt, either. Wrong.
John: Titans. I hate picking against Denver at home and at night, but the Titans can play with anyone and tend to win close games. The Broncos just aren’t that good of a football team to me. Wrong.
Zach: Broncos. And please let this be the last time we see them on national television until they're actually good. Right.

Last Week

Ben: 6-7-1
David: 4-9-1
John: 7-6-1
Zach: 6-7-1

Season Standings

Zach: 91-58-11
David: 80-69-11
Ben: 73-76-11
John: 64-85-11

See also: Gambling, NFL, NFL Picks, Prognostication

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