NFL Picks - Week Twelve
Listed in: FootballJust the Thanksgiving Day picks for now...the rest will come eventually. Like they are now.
As always, picks are against the spread and home teams are bolded.
This Week
Ben: 9-7 (3-0)
David: 8-8 (3-0)
John: 5-11 (1-2)
Zach: 7-9 (2-1)
Lions +3 vs. Packers
Ben: Packers. The most repeated line in the NFL this week: "Who would have thought the Lions Thanksgiving Day game would mean the most?" Answer, not me. That doesn't mean this one will be close though. The Pack are the far better team and laying the three is an easy for this one. Right.
David: Packers. I don't find Brett Favre all that annoying anymore. I do find the older generation's incredulousness at the Pack's success annoying. Is it really difficult to understand that the defense is good, the offensive line is solid, the receivers are talented despite being unheralded, and Favre has finally reined in the gunslinger schtick? It's not a miracle; it's people learning what works and who's got skills. If Jake Plummer can change, then Brett Favre can change, then I can change, then you can change. We can all change! Right.
John: Lions. The Lions disappointed me last week, but they are very strong at home and the Packers traditionally do not play well in domes. Wrong.
Zach: Packers. The Packers are, at best, the #2 team in the NFC. The Lions are a fraud at 6-4. I'd give 10 points, so only giving three is yet another thing to be thankful for today. Right.
Cowboys -14 vs. Jets
Ben: Cowboys. After an expected and thrilling win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, do I buy into the hype? Do I dare say the Jets have turned a corner? Answer, hell no. Short week, road start for Kellen Clemens. I'm not liking this one for Gang Green. Right.
David: Cowboys. Wade Phillips is not a terrible coach. He's a retread, which is not inherently bad, but hiring him was a conservative move by an owner I respect for thinking outside the box when it comes to running a football team. Apparently, Phillips's greatest coaching blunder has defined him to this point, benching Doug Flutie in favor of Rob Johnson. However, his Buffalo teams certainly weren't awful, and he's considered one of the most successful defensive minds in the game. The Boys' offense was already in place, so hiring him made intuitive sense. Granted, I think going for someone like Mike Singletary, a guy all his players love and describe with singular affection, and a guy who is supposedly on top of everything as a manager, would have been the bold move. (Incidentally, Singletary is the single best coaching hire you can make if you immediately fire your coaches in Madden.) All that's to say that I don't believe in Kellen Clemens right now, nor do I believe in any sort of Jets' defensive resurgence. I just hope the crashing and burning doesn't ruin my Thanksgiving. Right.
John: Cowboys. This will be a game of utter destruction. You shouldnt even have to have the TV on after the 3rd quarter. The Jets had their big game last week, and the Cowboys always get up for playing on Thanksgiving. Right.
Zach: Jets. I like Kellen Clemens to keep providing Jets fans with (false?) hope. Wrong.
Falcons +12 vs. Colts
Ben: Colts. The Colts have been so decimated by injuries, they struggle these days to beat below average AFC West teams. So why can't I pick them here? Answer, the Falcons are a terrible football team with no quarterback, a porous offensive line and a putrid run game. I can't expect a win, so I won't expect a cover. Right.
David: Colts. Right.
John: Falcons. The Colts are too banged up, and not playing well enough to be giving up this many points. Wrong.
Zach: Colts. Hate this pick, but I can't in good conscience take the Falcons, even though the Colts are decimated by injuries. Right.
Bengals +1 vs. Titans
Ben: Titans. We all wonder what the premium positions in the NFL are. Quarterback is easy, but are there any other areas where one player can make a tremendous difference? The Colts struggles without Tony Ugoh tell us the left tackle might be one. The Titans recent defensive struggles with Albert Haynesworth out suggest defensive tackle is another. That said, the Bengals run game as been putrid so I don't think they can take advantage of it.
David: Titans. The Bengals are in a freefall. Two major stories to watch in Cinci as the season unfolds: Chad Johnson's concussion/neck issues, and how the league might address the team regarding his treatment, and Marvin Lewis's job security. I'm thinking more and more Lewis will have to catch on as a defensive coordinator somewhere next year.
John: Titans.
Zach: Titans. All the injuries on defense make this a tough pick, but I like Vince Young to build on last week's good outing against a miserable Cincinnati defense.
Browns -3.5 vs. Texans
Ben: Browns. Andre Johnson means a lot to the Texans, but I'm not sure Houston has the ability to stop the Brownies on offense.
David: Browns. The Cleveland offense is legit. If the draft were done over today, knowing what we know now, JaMarcus Russell might still go number one, but it would be an extremely difficult decision whether to take him, Joe Thomas (my choice), or Adrian Peterson. Forget Brady Quinn. The Browns got the right guy with their first pick.
John: Browns.
Zach: Browns. Who else here thought this would be the marquee matchup of Week 12? Ok, I lied, no one saw this coming.
Chiefs -5 vs. Raiders
Ben: Chiefs. The second tier game of the weekend in Arrowhead stadium. Saturday night Missouri defeated Kansas to win the Big XII North and are now just one win away from a national title game berth. That's right, Mizzou/Kansas trumps Chiefs/Raiders, in football. Never thought you'd see that, did you?
David: Chiefs. Sorry to see Priest Holmes retire again. That said, KC's early troubles might be attributable to a lack of any receiving threat. With Dwayne Bowe emerging, they're finally mediocre.
John: Raiders.
Zach: Chiefs. Wither JaMarcus?
Rams +3 vs. Seahawks
Ben: Seahawks. After two good games in a row, the Rams have elevated themselves to third worst DVOA in the league. That said, if the Hawks don't cover this, they don't deserve to make the playoffs, even if they win the NFC West.
David: Seahawks. I love watching Matt Hasselbeck with four wide sets. It fits him, it fits Holmgren, and it fits their line personnel.
John: Rams.
Zach: Seahawks. The Rams beat the Saints and the 49ers. I'm not buying this "resurgence" one bit.
Giants -7.5 vs. Vikings
Ben: Giants. This feels like the classic Giants trap game, especially since the G-Men struggle against teams with good lines. I expect Chester Taylor to run wild against the Giants, but the Vikings secondary will get shredded.
David: Giants. I reiterate: Eli Manning will cost the Giants a playoff game. They'll beat the dregs of the league, but they can be contained by better teams.
John: Vikings.
Zach: Giants. The questions at running back actually might help New York, since the way to beat the Vikings is to throw on them over and over.
Buccaneers -3 vs. Redskins
Ben: Buccaneers. Lost in the Colts, Patriots, Packers, Steelers and Cowboys talk, the Buccaneers are actually a pretty good football team. They are sixth in DVOA, and right behind the Steelers. The Skins are also a solid team, but I don't like them on the road against a defense that is hard to beat down the field.
David: Buccaneers. Is it fair to say Jeff Garcia's having a resurgence? Can we all agree he's done after this season, and the Bucs will either have to find someone off the scrap heap again, or draft Colt Brennan, or something? I get the impression people think Garcia's this little scrappy guy who's always barely won his jobs and then succeeded by the skin of his teeth when he has played, which isn't true. After dominating the CFL, he had three great seasons in San Francisco.
John: Buccaneers.
Zach: Buccaneers. Shouldn't Jeff Garcia and Jason Campbell switch playing styles, just so none of Ben's co-workers are confused?
Panthers +3 vs. Saints
Ben: Saints. Just when they look like they are turning it around the Saints get trashed by the Rams and Texans. If they can't beat this god awful Panther team, they might as well just take the rest of the season off.
David: Panthers. I hate the Panthers with a passion. This is a team that has talent on the offense, but can't figure out how to use it. On the other hand, the Saints continue to leave me befuddled. I have no idea what will happen.
John: Saints.
Zach: Saints. Contract the NFC South.
Jaguars -7.5 vs. Bills
Ben: Jaguars. Don't trust this Bills team on the road; not one bit.
David: Jaguars. I'm inspired by Ben's purchase of a David Garrard jersey. Also, the Buffalo QB situation is still unsettled, and their homefield scrappiness will be absent in Florida.
John: Bills.
Zach: Jaguars. I wonder just how worried the Colts are about Jacksonville.
Cardinals -10 vs. 49ers
Ben: Cardinals. Incredibly, this Niners team has the chance to be even worse than the 2005 Niners team. Doesn't someone have to lose their job for this?
David: Cardinals. Tim Rattay's revenge will be complete, and he can go become the Dread Pirate Roberts.
John: Cardinals.
Zach: Cardinals. Amazingly, I'm actually a bit worried about the Cardinals this year. Not a lot, mind you, but more than ever before.
Bears -2 vs. Broncos
Ben: Broncos. Denver has not played well this year, but they've come on as of late. The fact the Bears are favored is a testament to the fact people haven't forgotten they were NFC champs a year ago. A year is a long time though and this Bears team is one of the worst in the league.
David: Broncos. Lovie Smith, also with his job on the line. Kyle Orton, still rocking the neck beard. Still pining for a chance to play.
John: Broncos.
Zach: Broncos. The Bears are an embarrassment this year.
Chargers -9 vs. Ravens
Ben: Chargers. Baltimore was a mediocre football team that has become a bad football team over the last month. The Chargers are a talented team that is horribly coached and as a result, inconsistent. I'll take the team that plays up and down, rather than the team that is just going down.
David: Chargers. Norv kills me. But so does Brian Billick. I get the feeling Billick is very good at some things, like creating a solid clubhouse culture and giving coaches the tools they need to teach players, but on the other hand, he and his coaches are terrible at in-game strategy, and the individual talented players they've had over the years have bailed them out. I repeat: Bring on the Troy Smith era!
John: Ravens.
Zach: Ravens. Just a hunch.
Patriots -22.5 vs. Eagles
Ben: Patriots. I hate Boston fans and Philadelphia fans, so maybe a comet will strike Gillette Stadium Sunday.
David: Patriots. I'm not even looking at the line. What is it? 37? Bah. Let me take this moment to say that with the Pats winning as they have all this season, I find myself wondering what the lines would be in my video game world. I mean, I'm playing a dynasty NCAA08 in which I'm crushing the Big Ten week in and week out. When I play Indiana, would my line be 70? 75? 80?
John: Patriots.
Zach: Patriots. How can you not pick them?
Steelers -16 vs. Dolphins
Ben: Steelers. I hate giving up sixteen points with a team that tends to play down to its competition but I can't see the Dolphins winning. On the other hand, Ricky Williams may be starting, so that gives me a little incentive to watch.
David: Steelers. Now that I've made that pick, Ricky Williams will explode for 200+ yards and the Dolphins will cover.
John: Steelers.
Zach: Steelers. I'm not sure there's any place for a guy who smokes pot in the NFL. I mean, won't he feel out-of-place alongside Ray Lewis, or Leonard Little, or Chris Henry?
Last Week
Ben: 9-6-1
David: 7-8-1
John: 9-6-1
Zach: 13-2-1
Season Standings
Zach: 98-67-11
David: 88-77-11
Ben: 82-83-11
John: 69-96-11
