With the winter meetings on tap for next week, the hot stove is roaring at full blast. A weak free agent class made even weaker by the big names signing quickly (read: A-Rod, Torri Hunter) makes for a potent trade market. Throw in the fact that big name pitchers don’t seem to be making to free agency these days, Carlos Zambrano anyone, and GMs are looking at the trade market as their only place to reel in that big fish.

The biggest fish in the pond is clearly Johan Santana. However, the baggage with him is clear; not only will he cost the prospects to acquire, he’s in line for the biggest deal a pitcher has ever received. Committing five or more years to even the best pitcher in the game is a risky proposition and at 20 million a season, only a select few teams can really take the risk of trading prospects and handing out a contract like that.

So with that in mind, I’ve broken down the Johan sweepstakes into the primary contenders and what I think their best offer will end up being. No inside information here; just an attempt at using common sense. As many realize, common sense is not so common at all, so this maybe an exercise in futility. But who cares, it’s still a lot of fun to play GM.

Yankees send: Phillip Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy

Why it makes sense: The Twins get one of the best young arms in baseball. In fact, outside of Felix Hernandez and Hughes’ teammate Joba Chamberlain, there’s probably none better. (I’d take Hughes over Joba if I had my druthers) The Twins get a centerfielder who can play above average defense and post an .750-.850 OPS at his best. Kennedy projects to be a solid starter.

Why it may not happen: The Yankees refuse to do it because they don’t want to surrender Hughes, or the Sox offer two great prospects. However, I believe this trade is the most likely scenario, since Bossman Jr. likely takes after his old man in an affinity for dealing prospects for established stars.

Red Sox send: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie and Coco Crisp

Why it makes sense: The Red Sox give up two young arms, but only one is making their rotation barring injury anyway. Crisp is a guy the team would love to dump and Lowrie is a good prospect. Talent wise, it is close enough the Twins might be willing to bite, especially if the Yankees don’t want to budge off Hughes.

Why it won’t happen: The Twins get the Yankees to throw in Hughes, who is a better arm than anyone in the Red Sox package. Cabrera is cost controlled so he is more valuable than Crisp. The Twins then go back and ask for Ellsbury instead of Crisp and get balked at.

Mets send: Carlos Gomez, Mike Pelfrey, Deolis Guerra

Why it makes sense: Gomez is the best talent of the centerfielders talked about, even though he’s the most raw. As a 21 year old in AAA, he had a 777 OPS and a .363 OBP. Mike Pelfrey is a surer bet than Ian Kennedy or Jon Lester even with his early career struggles. Guerra has held is own, despite being just 18 years old at high A ball.

Why it won’t happen: Gomez has the most upside of any player in the talked about deals outside of Hughes, but he also could be the biggest bust. If the Twins want a great pitching prospect, then Pelfrey likely won’t cut it at this stage. Guerra’s K numbers offset his age a bit and lessen his value. Also, Jose Reyes is not happening.

Dodgers send: Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, Chin- Lung Hu

Why it makes sense: No team in baseball has more prospects to burn than LA. They also seem to be the most reluctant to play those kids, so trading them would give them a means by which to get value from them without having to give them PT. Simple no? Billingsley has proven the most of any high end pitchers talked about, Kemp could play center and Hu posted an .842 OPS at SS in AAA this year. Two top prospects and a solid third would be a good haul for the lefty.

Why it won’t happen: The Dodgers balk at trading two of their top prospects or don’t want to pay Santana. The latter seems to be most likely. They might also turn around a throw an offer the way of the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera.

Angels send: Jered Weaver, Howie Kendrick and Reggie Willits

Why it makes sense: Weaver does not have the upside of Billingsley, Hughes or Buchholz, but he has pitched in the bigs for two years now. Kendrick is still a highly regarded position player and Willits is expendable for the Angels. The Twins could then try to play Delmon Young in center.

Why it won’t happen: Good offer, but I think someone will trump them and the Angels won’t want to go much beyond this.

Mariners send: Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and Wladimir Balentein

Why it makes sense: I didn’t consult Zach, so maybe it makes no sense for the Mariners. But for the Twins, they get top notch centerfield prospect in Jones, a good young arm in Morrow and another raw but talented prospect in Balentein.

Why it won’t happen: Even if they agreed to the prospects price, I just can’t see the Mariners forking over the dough for Johan.

And just for fun, some other deals I could see happening:

Mets send: Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey and Joe Smith
A's send Dan Haren

If you look at Billy Beane's big swaps of Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson, you see that he tends to get a pitching prospect who could step in (Dan Meyer, Dan Haren) and other prospect who's got upside (Daric Barton, Charles Thomas) and a reliever (Kiko Calero). This fits the mold well. The Mets might also substitute Carlos Gomez in, if Beane wants a centerfielder.

Mets send: Carlos Gomez and Kevin Mulvey
A's send: Joe Blanton

Beane might ask for the moon for Blanton, but he really doesn't fit the mold of pitchers Omar Minaya likes to target. Oliver Perez, John Maine, Jason Vargas, John Patterson--- see a pattern? High K guys. I don't think he'd pay premium for a low K guy like Blanton. Gomez and a second tier prospect like Mulvey is probably as far as I'm guessing he'd go. Considering Jon Garland (aka a skinnier Blanton) just got back an okay player in Orlando Cabrera, I'm not sure the market for Blanton is as good as people think.

Mets send Kevin Mulvey and Fernando Martinez
Marlins send: Dontrelle Willis

I’d vomit but D-Train has a name and his value is down. The Marlins are rebuilding and though they would prefer major league ready guys, they’d likely take talent first and foremost. Martinez would be that.

Mets send: Lastings Milledge, Mike Pelfrey and Deolis Guerra
Orioles send Erik Bedard

I still don't believe the Orioles will trade Bedard, but if they put him on the market, I could see the Mets ponying up this offer. The O's get an outfielder and pitcher who will step right in and a decent prospect for down the road. It's not the best offer anyone can muster but this is a case where you don't think the Red Sox and Yankees would be involved- the O's probably wouldn't deal in division. If the Dodgers unload their chips elsewhere, this suddenly becomes more likely.

2:52 edit Well the Mets trading Milledge for Brian Schneider and Ryan Church (gag/gag/gag) ends this possibility. Switch Milledge out for Gomez or Martinez.

Angels trade: Howie Kendrick, Reggie Willits and Jered Weaver
Marlins send: Miguel Cabrera

This would be a steep price, in fact, it’s the same deal I offered for Johan. but let's look at the factors here: Weaver is a good pitcher who tops out as a two. The Angels have two pitchers better in John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar. Willits is out of a job anyway with the Torii Hunter signing. Oh and Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball under the age of 27. For the record, he'll be 25 next year. Hitters are surer bets than pitchers and the Angels need some punch for their lineup more than they need the ace. Considering Willits, it would come down to Kendrick and Weaver for Cabrera. How could you not do that if you are Anahiem?

Angels trade Willits and Kendrick
Orioles send Miguel Tejada

I would hate this move if I were an Angels fan, but it makes some sense when you think about how baseball is. Kendrick is still untapped potential and Willits is a guy whose on base skills make him valuable but underappreciated. Plus I already can see the spin: “Tejada is a veteran with a good track record and could use a change of scenery.”

The problem is that for Jered Weaver they could probably have Miguel Cabrera. But I think that the name of Tejada and the allure of Weaver would make this hard to pass up, if offered.

Dodgers trade Matt Kemp and Andy LaRoche
Marlins send: Cabrera

Kemp immediately goes into centerfield for the Marlins who have suffered through the likes of Alfredo Armezaga and Reggie Abercrombie for the last two years. LaRoche replaces Cabrera at third base. The Dodgers add some much needed punch to their lineup and could play Cabrera at third, left or first base.

Dodgers trade Kemp and Billingsley
Orioles send: Bedard

Bedard was nearly as good as Johan, is younger, cheaper and pitched in the most difficult division in baseball for a pitcher. If the price for Bedard is lower than Santana, the Dodgers would be fools not to pull the trigger on a trade. It’s possible they could throw a similar offer the way of the A’s for Dan Haren or Joe Blanton, but giving up both Kemp and Billingsley for those two is probably too much for the Dodgers to surrender.