The NFC Report - Week 10
Listed in: FootballWell, things in the NFC appear to be clearing up a bit. There's the top tier of teams who should be considered legitimate Super Bowl contenders, a massive middle ground of teams who hope to be playoff-bound, and then a few teams who are already thinking about the draft.
This Season Matters
Right now, Dallas, Green Bay, and New York look like the three teams with real Super Bowl hopes. Dallas has been the best of the three, with their only loss coming to the Patriots. Green Bay is one fluky loss against Chicago from being undefeated, and the Giants have overcome a slow start to move to 6-2.
Let's look at each team more closely. Dallas has been close to a model football team, and if it weren't for the exploits of the Colts and Patriots they'd be looking like the clear favorites in the NFL. They do just about everything well; they run the ball (4th in DVOA), pass the ball (3rd), stop the run (6th), and stop the pass (6th). The special teams have been average, but far from a weakness. If they'd turn the running game over to Marion Barber III on a more permanent basis, they'd be even better positioned. The team is stacked with talent at the skill positions, from Barber (1st among running backs in DVOA) to quarterback Tony Romo (5th in DPAR) to wideout Terrell Owens (3rd in DPAR) and tight end Jason Witten (2nd in DPAR). Defensively, the secondary has improved enough to turn the entire unit into one of the best in the league.
If Dallas doesn't win the NFC, it's because Green Bay does. Seriously, while a Pats-Colts rematch in the AFC Championship would get most of the attention, a Dallas-Green Bay matchup would certainly generate plenty of interest in its own right. Brett Favre remains the best-known Packer, and he's having a very nice season (6th in DPAR), but he's no longer the best player on the team. That distinction belongs to All-World defensive end Aaron Kampman, who powers one of the best defensive lines in football. His presence allows the Pack to generate a pass rush with just four players, which helps out the secondary. Al Harris and Charles Woodson are a very good corner duo, but the safeties and nickel backs are a weakness, which explains how Green Bay is 31st against 3rd/4th wide receivers. There's been much written about the lack of a run game, but the run has been effective when used, they've just rarely run the ball. Injuries and uncertainty at running back have played a part in that, as has the passing game's effectiveness. On a neutral field, Dallas is probably the favorite, but Green Bay has the easier remaining schedule, and at Lambeau they might be a large obstacle for the 'Boys.
Deception
Both Detroit and New York are 6-2, and seemingly deserve to be included in the above group. However, both have serious questions that need to be answered before I at least start talking about them as legit Super Bowl teams. New York needs to beat a good team, as their last four wins have come over the Jets, Falcons, 49ers, and Dolphins (combined record 5-27). The running game looks very good, and the front four generates lots of pressure against weaker offensive lines, but Eli Manning is still his usual erratic self and the rest of the defense isn't that good.
Detroit is more intriguing: there's plenty of talent on the offense, and the defensive line has the potential to dominate, like they did against the Broncos this week. However, the offensive line is terrible, and Jon Kitna gets hit way too often. Plus, they're the Lions.
Miasma
Washington, Tampa Bay, Seattle, New Orleans, Carolina, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Arizona, and Chicago are all still clinging to playoff hopes, but none look like more than early-round fodder. The Saints have played the best of late, and it's possible they could emerge as more of a contender. The offense has found its stride, and the defense has improved over last year. Meanwhile, the Redskins are dealing with the growing pains that a young quarterback invariably goes through, Tampa Bay will have to fend off the hard-charging Saints, Seattle doesn't have the talent to make up for Mike Holmgren's god-awful coaching, Carolina is a disgrace, Philly has dug themselves to deep of a hole, Minnesota can't pass or stop the pass, which is too bad because the Purple Jesus is pretty damn amazing, and so is their run defense, Arizona is starting to see the bad Kurt Warner, and Chicago has no offense and a declining defense.
The Terrible
Atlanta is bad at just about everything, the 49ers might be the worst team in the league, and the Rams won't win a game.
