The NFC Report - Week 13
Listed in: FootballSo the NFC Report is back after taking a couple of weeks off. From the Eagles nearly taking out the Patriots to the potential return of the Purple Jesus, it's been an exciting week in the NFC. However, there's only one storyline in the NFC worth discussing today, and it's a doozy.
Tonight, all eyes will be in Dallas as the 10-1 Cowboys host the 10-1 Packers. We've already been privileged to see a match-up of unbeatens earlier this year, but a showdown of one-loss teams this late in the year is almost as rare. Hopefully, the game is as competitive as the Patriots-Colts game was.
First off, these are a pair of very good teams, but at this point it's clear that the Cowboys are the superior team, with a better offense and defense. However, the difference between the two isn't that great, and while the Cowboys are (and should be) favored, a Green Bay win would be far from shocking.
Many of the storylines leading into this game have centered around the quarterbacks (as they usually do), and both Brett Favre and Tony Romo have been excellent stories this year. Romo has shook off the disastrous end to the 2006 season to emerge as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. His improvisational skills can be stunning to watch, and he's mostly managed to avoid the dumb throws which plagued him late last year. Obviously, the rest of the offense has made things easier on him, but most of the same players were in place a year ago when Romo routinely forced balls into traffic, costing Dallas several winnable games. His ascension has steadied a quarterback position which has more or less been in flux since Troy Aikman retired.
Speaking of retired, that's what most people expected Brett Favre to be by this year. Instead, he's not just still playing, he's posting the best year of any quarterback not named Tom Brady. For years, I was one of those folks who was sick and tired of hearing about #4, but what he's doing this year is simply amazing. Yes, part of the credit belongs to an underrated corps of receivers, but a lot of it should go to Favre, who's having his best season in a decade. Still, the Packers are far from a one-man team. The mainstream media keeps painting them as a pass-only offense, but they're actually 9th in rushing DVOA. They don't run all that often, but they run effectively when they do, and their ability to spread the field with four- and five-receiver sets means that opposing defenses can't stack against the run on any but the most obvious run situations. Defensively, they're strong against the run, as the Vikings found out a few weeks ago, and the pass defense is decent. However, they'll be sorely tested against the Cowboys, who have a pair of talented receivers in TO and Patrick Crayton as well as tight end Jason Witten. The weakness of the defense is the safeties, so expect to see a lot of Owens deep, as well as Witten going up the seams.
The one area where the Packers have an advantage is on special teams. Green Bay has been better in both kickoff returns and kick coverage, and in a game that figures to feature quite a few scores that could prove somewhat meaningful. If this game were in Green Bay, I'd probably pick the Packers, but the Cowboys being at home and being the better team makes it hard to pick against them.
Beyond the Packers and Cowboys, the rest of the NFC is something of a mishmash. Tampa Bay and Seattle have emerged as the classes of a pair of horrific divisions, but expecting either team to put up much of a fight against the top two seems hard to fathom. Two other teams will make the playoffs, but the rest of the teams in the race are all horribly flawed in some way. Of course, at this same junction we said that Colts-Pats was just Round One, and that they were certain to meet in the AFC Championship game. That's a bit more in doubt now with all the injuries that have ravaged Indy, but still could happen. Similarly, barring a fluky set of injuries or some other unforeseen circumstance, expect to see Green Bay and Dallas playing again in six or so weeks.
