So What's the Plan?
Listed in: BaseballWhile there have been a few minor transactions, the offseason for the Mariners really got underway with the news that they inked Carlos Silva to a 4-year, $48 million contract. The move was mostly greeted with groans from the blogging community, not so much because Silva doesn't represent an upgrade over last year's back-end of the rotation but because it feels like this is yet another example of Bill Bavasi and company not understanding the baseball marketplace. Silva is an average player, and it seems like the length of the contract and the money are an awful lot to give up for an average pitcher, especially considering that Seattle already has two guys like that (Washburn and Batista) under contract. Silva doesn't miss bats, doesn't walk guys, and get a decent number of ground balls. He gets hit hard by lefties. He's a decent piece, especially for a team that had no real internal options to replace Jeff Weaver and (hopefully) Ho Ramirez, but just because you need a pitcher doesn't mean you have to pay a lot to get a mediocre one. There were plenty of more intriguing options (Bartolo Colon, Mark Prior) who would have cost less, at least in terms of years if not in dollars, and would have had significantly more upside.
With all that being said, let's look at where the M's stand. Last year, despite a massive fade in August, they went 88-74, their best finish since 2003. Now, their Pythagorean record would seem to indicate that 88 wins was something of a fluke. Even if you believe that teams with great bullpens (like the Mariners) can consistently out-perform their P-record, it's likely that last year's team was good for about 85 wins. Presumably, a similar performance this year leaves them 5-10 games behind the Angels, and a similar distance behind the eventual wild-card winner.
Here's what this year's roster looks like, if the season started today.
C: Kenji Johjima
1B: Richie Sexson
2B: Jose Lopez
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt
3B: Adrian Beltre
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Ichiro
RF: Adam Jones
DH: Jose Vidro
SP: Felix Hernandez
SP: Miguel Batista
SP: Jarrod Washburn
SP: Carlos Silva
SP: ?
CL: JJ Putz
SU: George Sherrill
SU: Sean Green
The rest of the bullpen is basically uncertain, but expect it to be a combination of young, cheap, talented arms.
The bench at this point is Willie Bloomquist as the utility man, and another bunch of question marks. Mike Morse might make the team as a right-handed pinch hitter, but his use is minimal, because the team has no lefty regulars who might get pinch hit for (since McLaren will never understand that Ibanez can not hit good lefties with any regularity).
Furthermore, by trading Ben Broussard the team has no fall-back option if Richie Sexson truly is washed-up. His numbers last year were horrific, but the team believes he can rebound, and will likely give him a couple of months before pulling the plug. If they do, no one really knows what happens. Do they move Ibanez/Vidro to 1B, put the other at DH, and promote Wladimir Balentin to play left field? I doubt it, since Bavasi has said he doesn't want to play two rookie outfielders. Do they move Vidro to 1B and promote catcher of the future Jeff Clement to DH? Maybe, as Clement was fairly impressive in his cup of coffee last year and has a swing tailor-made for Safeco's short right field porch. Do they try and trade for a veteran? Probably, since Bavasi needs to win this year to keep his job.
As for the fifth rotation spot, it's anyone's guess who wins it. Brandon Morrow is tearing up the Venezuelan winter league as a starter, so he'll at least have a shot at winning the job in spring training. Other options include Cha Seung Baek (if he can stay healthy), Rule 5 claimee R.A. Dickey and his new knuckleball, AAA lefties Robert Rohrbaugh and Ryan Feierabend, or (shudder) Ramirez, who the team inexplicably tendered a contract to.
Now, let's talk about the potential Erik Bedard trade. Obviously Bedard is a great pitcher, and he instantly makes the rotation much better. However, acquiring him would likely cost Jones, Morrow, and at least one more prospect. How does that affect this year's team? Well, there's no other right-field option, especially if Balentin is also a part of the trade. Even is he isn't, I doubt he's ready to be an everyday player. The list of available outfielders isn't all that encouraging, so the hole in right field takes away quite a bit of the gain from adding Bedard. It also removes basically all of the major-league ready (or nearly-ready) talent from the farm system, which might not bother Bavasi but should bother the organization, because honestly they're not that close to catching the Angels. Bedard gets them slightly closer, but without the talent infusion that Jones/Morrow/whomever would theoretically provide over the next few years, it's hard to imagine the team improving much.
So what's the upside for this current team? Well, Sexson could rebound. His surface numbers stunk last year, but a large part of that was his horrific .217 BABIP. His walk rate and strikeout rate were both better than 2006, and while his LD% fell it wasn't enough to explain the huge collapse in BABIP. With more neutral luck, he could see a return to being marginally productive. Of course, he's also about to turn 33 and is terrible defensively, so the upside is really him being neutral to slightly productive as opposed to a massive black hole. Jose Lopez could realize his considerable talent and start pulling the ball, but that's more a wish than anything tangible. Jones could step in and be an impact player both offensively (replacing the loss of Jose Guillen) and defensively (making up for Guillen's mediocrity in that area). Pitching-wise, King Felix could finally pitch to his peripherals. The bullpen could continue to be great. It's almost impossible for the 4th-5th starters to be as bad as Weaver and Ramirez were last year (unless, of course, Ramirez is one of them).
However, there's plenty of potential downside. Jose Vidro is almost certain to decline from last year's performance. Ibanez and Sexson are both on the down sides of their careers. Johjima could age quickly (he is a catcher, after all). Lopez likely will continue to struggle with the bat. Jones might not be ready for the big leagues after all. Felix could continue to throw predictable fastballs, or even get hurt again.
With enough breaks, this could be a playoff team, but more than likely they're the 5th-7th best team in the AL. That's ok if they still have all their young talent, but if they mortgage quite a bit to get Bedard, that's harder to countenance. In short, they appear like what they really are, a team without any sort of concrete plan. They're not a true contender, and they won't be until they develop a few more useful players from within the system, but they're also not about to undergo a rebuilding phase. The best we can hope for is that Bavasi's need to win now doesn't cost us a chance to win more down the road, and that's a depressingly slender thread.
