Why Bedard?
Listed in: BaseballSo the rumors continue to swirl that the Mariners are close to trading for star Orioles pitcher Erik Bedard. It's clear that outfielder Adam Jones will be a centerpiece of the deal, likely along with catcher Jeff Clement, as well as at least one other piece. Seattle GM Bill Bavasi has said that the team considers pitcher Brandon Morrow just about untouchable, meaning that the Orioles are asking for 17-year-old wunderkind Carlos Triunfel instead. Almost regardless of who the third piece of the trade is, this is a bad move for the Mariners which illustrates both the perils of having a GM on a win-or-go-home ultimatum and a flawed understanding of where the Mariners stand in relation to the rest of the American League.
Last year's 88-74 season was a tremendous surprise for even the most optimistic Mariner fan (of which I'm not one). Yes, the collapse in late August was painful, but the fact that the team was a legitimate contender up until that point still somewhat boggles the mind. Even with some terrible performances from players like Richie Sexson, Horacio Ramirez, and Jeff Weaver, the team posted it's best record in five years.
Heading into the offseason, it was clear that the number one priority was the starting rotation. Of Bavasi's three additions last offseason, only Miguel Batista performed up to expectations. Ramirez was an unmitigated disaster, and while Weaver somewhat bounced back after the worst start in franchise history, he faded mightily down the stretch. With Weaver gone and Ramirez hopefully not a viable option in 2008, the Mariners needed to add starting pitching somehow.
Unfortunately, the team didn't have a whole lot of encouraging options in the farm system. Korean righy Cha Seung Baek showed decent stuff at the start of the season, but has a lengthy injury history that rightly makes the team wary of counting on him for 30+ starts. Beyond that, the cupboard is mostly bare, consisting of a young, soft-tossing lefty (Ryan Fieirabend), and older soft-tossing lefty (Robert Raubaugh), and a somewhat young lefty power arm with little starting experience (Ryan Rowland-Smith). There's also Morrow, who I'll get to in a sec.
A lack of major-league ready arms meant Bavasi had to look to other organizations to fill out the rotation, which is never a comfortable process. In his desire to remain employed past this year, he chased after Japanese question mark Hiroki Kuroda, but after losing him to the Dodgers he signed average pitcher Carlos Silva to a four-year, $40 million contract. Silva has exceptional command, but doesn't miss bats and will be relying on a defense that was surprisingly porous last year. As the final piece to a rotation, Silva isn't a bad player, but the contract is. While he's almost sure to out-perform Ramirez and Weaver from a year ago, he's also unlikely to make the Mariners much better.
Still needing another starter, the M's set their sights on some of the top pitchers in baseball. After finding out that their offers to Minnesota for Johan Santana were not strong enough, Seattle turned their focus to Bedard. While he's not quite Santana, Bedard is arguably the second-best lefty in baseball. He's got fantastic stuff, and his command has progressed nicely. Additionally, he remains under team control for the next two seasons. The downside is that he's going to turn 29 before the season begins and has a somewhat lengthy injury history. If he pitches well the next two years, he's also going to demand a massive contract after the 2009 season. While Bedard would clearly be a massive rotation upgrade, and would perhaps take some of the pressure of phenom Felix Hernandez, I'm not sure he's enough for the Mariners to overtake Los Angeles in the AL West or push for the Wild Card.
First, just look at the impact on the starting lineup. Jones has been penciled in as the everyday right fielder, so trading him leaves a rather large hole in the outfield. Internally, the only viable option is 23-year-old outfielder Wladimir Balentin, who had a great season at AAA as he finally started to harness his massive power, but it's unlikely he's nearly as MLB ready as Jones is. This late in the offseason, the free agent options are uninspiring, and whomever the team signs will likely be a down-grade from Jones both offensively and defensively.
If the Mariners were just about even with the Angels, it's possible that this move could put them over the top. However, if you see them as being 5+ games worse than LA (as I do), then all trading for Bedard does is narrow the gap at a massive cost to the future of the franchise.
Morrow appears certain to be a part of that future, and I don't quite understand why. Yes, he's got a great fastball, and he was consistently able to dominate MLB hitters with it as a reliever last year. Furthermore, his control, which was a huge problem early on, seems to be improving. Still, at this point he's a one-pitch guy, and no matter how good that fastball is it won't be enough as a starter.
Morrow's delayed development was part of the trickle-down from the atrocious Rafael Soriano-for-Horacio Ramirez deal last offseason. Soriano's absence left the team without a power-righty set-up arm, so instead of sending Morrow to AAA Tacoma to develop as a starter, he broke camp with the team and spent the entire season on the big league roster. Not only was Ramirez a disaster, but trading away Soriano set back the development of the closest thing the team has to an MLB-ready pitching prospect. No wonder M's fans hate it.
Morrow looked good in the Venezuelan Winter League, but it's almost comical to assume that 36 innings there, plus another 30 or so in spring training will suddenly allow him to develop a slider and a change-up that at this point are not MLB-caliber. From scouting reports, it appears that while Morrow posted good numbers in Venezuela, he relied heavily on his fastball instead of working more extensively on the rest of his arsenal.
Could Morrow be a good pitcher down the road? Sure, and if the Mariners committed to giving him the time he needs in AAA to hone his pitches it could even happen in the second half of the 2008 season. But does he possess so much potential that he should be labeled untouchable? Only in the mixed-up muddle that is Bill Bavasi's head.
Trading prospects is never easy, especially not for an organization that still smarts from the Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb deal. It's sometimes necessary to secure top-shelf talent that can push a contending team over the top. Sadly, that doesn't appear to be the case here. Instead, this is something of a last-ditch effort by a GM in peril to slightly upgrade the 2008 roster at a severe future cost. Of course, from Bavasi's perspective it makes plenty of sense: why worry about 2009 and beyond when only 2008 is assured? If he sticks around past this year, he can start worrying about rebuilding the farm system. But for Mariners fans who are in it for the long haul, and who see Jones, Clement, and others as the first chance to infuse the big league roster with young, cheap talent in a long while, the thought of potentially sacrificing the next few years for this one is unpalatable when it's hard to imagine the team going to the playoffs this year even with Bedard.
Yes, Bedard is a great player, and adding great players is always costly. But sometimes, you have to be willing to take the item back out of the cart, no matter how good it is, when the cost is just too much for your budget. For the Mariners, who are thin on top-level, near-MLB talent, Erik Bedard is a luxury they can't quite afford.
