So the rumors continue to swirl that the Mariners are close to trading for star Orioles pitcher Erik Bedard. It's clear that outfielder Adam Jones will be a centerpiece of the deal, likely along with catcher Jeff Clement, as well as at least one other piece. Seattle GM Bill Bavasi has said that the team considers pitcher Brandon Morrow just about untouchable, meaning that the Orioles are asking for 17-year-old wunderkind Carlos Triunfel instead. Almost regardless of who the third piece of the trade is, this is a bad move for the Mariners which illustrates both the perils of having a GM on a win-or-go-home ultimatum and a flawed understanding of where the Mariners stand in relation to the rest of the American League.

Last year's 88-74 season was a tremendous surprise for even the most optimistic Mariner fan (of which I'm not one). Yes, the collapse in late August was painful, but the fact that the team was a legitimate contender up until that point still somewhat boggles the mind. Even with some terrible performances from players like Richie Sexson, Horacio Ramirez, and Jeff Weaver, the team posted it's best record in five years.

Heading into the offseason, it was clear that the number one priority was the starting rotation. Of Bavasi's three additions last offseason, only Miguel Batista performed up to expectations. Ramirez was an unmitigated disaster, and while Weaver somewhat bounced back after the worst start in franchise history, he faded mightily down the stretch. With Weaver gone and Ramirez hopefully not a viable option in 2008, the Mariners needed to add starting pitching somehow.

Unfortunately, the team didn't have a whole lot of encouraging options in the farm system. Korean righy Cha Seung Baek showed decent stuff at the start of the season, but has a lengthy injury history that rightly makes the team wary of counting on him for 30+ starts. Beyond that, the cupboard is mostly bare, consisting of a young, soft-tossing lefty (Ryan Fieirabend), and older soft-tossing lefty (Robert Raubaugh), and a somewhat young lefty power arm with little starting experience (Ryan Rowland-Smith). There's also Morrow, who I'll get to in a sec.

A lack of major-league ready arms meant Bavasi had to look to other organizations to fill out the rotation, which is never a comfortable process. In his desire to remain employed past this year, he chased after Japanese question mark Hiroki Kuroda, but after losing him to the Dodgers he signed average pitcher Carlos Silva to a four-year, $40 million contract. Silva has exceptional command, but doesn't miss bats and will be relying on a defense that was surprisingly porous last year. As the final piece to a rotation, Silva isn't a bad player, but the contract is. While he's almost sure to out-perform Ramirez and Weaver from a year ago, he's also unlikely to make the Mariners much better.

Still needing another starter, the M's set their sights on some of the top pitchers in baseball. After finding out that their offers to Minnesota for Johan Santana were not strong enough, Seattle turned their focus to Bedard. While he's not quite Santana, Bedard is arguably the second-best lefty in baseball. He's got fantastic stuff, and his command has progressed nicely. Additionally, he remains under team control for the next two seasons. The downside is that he's going to turn 29 before the season begins and has a somewhat lengthy injury history. If he pitches well the next two years, he's also going to demand a massive contract after the 2009 season. While Bedard would clearly be a massive rotation upgrade, and would perhaps take some of the pressure of phenom Felix Hernandez, I'm not sure he's enough for the Mariners to overtake Los Angeles in the AL West or push for the Wild Card.

First, just look at the impact on the starting lineup. Jones has been penciled in as the everyday right fielder, so trading him leaves a rather large hole in the outfield. Internally, the only viable option is 23-year-old outfielder Wladimir Balentin, who had a great season at AAA as he finally started to harness his massive power, but it's unlikely he's nearly as MLB ready as Jones is. This late in the offseason, the free agent options are uninspiring, and whomever the team signs will likely be a down-grade from Jones both offensively and defensively.

If the Mariners were just about even with the Angels, it's possible that this move could put them over the top. However, if you see them as being 5+ games worse than LA (as I do), then all trading for Bedard does is narrow the gap at a massive cost to the future of the franchise.

Morrow appears certain to be a part of that future, and I don't quite understand why. Yes, he's got a great fastball, and he was consistently able to dominate MLB hitters with it as a reliever last year. Furthermore, his control, which was a huge problem early on, seems to be improving. Still, at this point he's a one-pitch guy, and no matter how good that fastball is it won't be enough as a starter.

Morrow's delayed development was part of the trickle-down from the atrocious Rafael Soriano-for-Horacio Ramirez deal last offseason. Soriano's absence left the team without a power-righty set-up arm, so instead of sending Morrow to AAA Tacoma to develop as a starter, he broke camp with the team and spent the entire season on the big league roster. Not only was Ramirez a disaster, but trading away Soriano set back the development of the closest thing the team has to an MLB-ready pitching prospect. No wonder M's fans hate it.

Morrow looked good in the Venezuelan Winter League, but it's almost comical to assume that 36 innings there, plus another 30 or so in spring training will suddenly allow him to develop a slider and a change-up that at this point are not MLB-caliber. From scouting reports, it appears that while Morrow posted good numbers in Venezuela, he relied heavily on his fastball instead of working more extensively on the rest of his arsenal.

Could Morrow be a good pitcher down the road? Sure, and if the Mariners committed to giving him the time he needs in AAA to hone his pitches it could even happen in the second half of the 2008 season. But does he possess so much potential that he should be labeled untouchable? Only in the mixed-up muddle that is Bill Bavasi's head.

Trading prospects is never easy, especially not for an organization that still smarts from the Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb deal. It's sometimes necessary to secure top-shelf talent that can push a contending team over the top. Sadly, that doesn't appear to be the case here. Instead, this is something of a last-ditch effort by a GM in peril to slightly upgrade the 2008 roster at a severe future cost. Of course, from Bavasi's perspective it makes plenty of sense: why worry about 2009 and beyond when only 2008 is assured? If he sticks around past this year, he can start worrying about rebuilding the farm system. But for Mariners fans who are in it for the long haul, and who see Jones, Clement, and others as the first chance to infuse the big league roster with young, cheap talent in a long while, the thought of potentially sacrificing the next few years for this one is unpalatable when it's hard to imagine the team going to the playoffs this year even with Bedard.

Yes, Bedard is a great player, and adding great players is always costly. But sometimes, you have to be willing to take the item back out of the cart, no matter how good it is, when the cost is just too much for your budget. For the Mariners, who are thin on top-level, near-MLB talent, Erik Bedard is a luxury they can't quite afford.

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 12:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

While there have been a few minor transactions, the offseason for the Mariners really got underway with the news that they inked Carlos Silva to a 4-year, $48 million contract. The move was mostly greeted with groans from the blogging community, not so much because Silva doesn't represent an upgrade over last year's back-end of the rotation but because it feels like this is yet another example of Bill Bavasi and company not understanding the baseball marketplace. Silva is an average player, and it seems like the length of the contract and the money are an awful lot to give up for an average pitcher, especially considering that Seattle already has two guys like that (Washburn and Batista) under contract. Silva doesn't miss bats, doesn't walk guys, and get a decent number of ground balls. He gets hit hard by lefties. He's a decent piece, especially for a team that had no real internal options to replace Jeff Weaver and (hopefully) Ho Ramirez, but just because you need a pitcher doesn't mean you have to pay a lot to get a mediocre one. There were plenty of more intriguing options (Bartolo Colon, Mark Prior) who would have cost less, at least in terms of years if not in dollars, and would have had significantly more upside.

With all that being said, let's look at where the M's stand. Last year, despite a massive fade in August, they went 88-74, their best finish since 2003. Now, their Pythagorean record would seem to indicate that 88 wins was something of a fluke. Even if you believe that teams with great bullpens (like the Mariners) can consistently out-perform their P-record, it's likely that last year's team was good for about 85 wins. Presumably, a similar performance this year leaves them 5-10 games behind the Angels, and a similar distance behind the eventual wild-card winner.

Here's what this year's roster looks like, if the season started today.

C: Kenji Johjima
1B: Richie Sexson
2B: Jose Lopez
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt
3B: Adrian Beltre
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Ichiro
RF: Adam Jones
DH: Jose Vidro

SP: Felix Hernandez
SP: Miguel Batista
SP: Jarrod Washburn
SP: Carlos Silva
SP: ?

CL: JJ Putz
SU: George Sherrill
SU: Sean Green

The rest of the bullpen is basically uncertain, but expect it to be a combination of young, cheap, talented arms.

The bench at this point is Willie Bloomquist as the utility man, and another bunch of question marks. Mike Morse might make the team as a right-handed pinch hitter, but his use is minimal, because the team has no lefty regulars who might get pinch hit for (since McLaren will never understand that Ibanez can not hit good lefties with any regularity).

Furthermore, by trading Ben Broussard the team has no fall-back option if Richie Sexson truly is washed-up. His numbers last year were horrific, but the team believes he can rebound, and will likely give him a couple of months before pulling the plug. If they do, no one really knows what happens. Do they move Ibanez/Vidro to 1B, put the other at DH, and promote Wladimir Balentin to play left field? I doubt it, since Bavasi has said he doesn't want to play two rookie outfielders. Do they move Vidro to 1B and promote catcher of the future Jeff Clement to DH? Maybe, as Clement was fairly impressive in his cup of coffee last year and has a swing tailor-made for Safeco's short right field porch. Do they try and trade for a veteran? Probably, since Bavasi needs to win this year to keep his job.

As for the fifth rotation spot, it's anyone's guess who wins it. Brandon Morrow is tearing up the Venezuelan winter league as a starter, so he'll at least have a shot at winning the job in spring training. Other options include Cha Seung Baek (if he can stay healthy), Rule 5 claimee R.A. Dickey and his new knuckleball, AAA lefties Robert Rohrbaugh and Ryan Feierabend, or (shudder) Ramirez, who the team inexplicably tendered a contract to.

Now, let's talk about the potential Erik Bedard trade. Obviously Bedard is a great pitcher, and he instantly makes the rotation much better. However, acquiring him would likely cost Jones, Morrow, and at least one more prospect. How does that affect this year's team? Well, there's no other right-field option, especially if Balentin is also a part of the trade. Even is he isn't, I doubt he's ready to be an everyday player. The list of available outfielders isn't all that encouraging, so the hole in right field takes away quite a bit of the gain from adding Bedard. It also removes basically all of the major-league ready (or nearly-ready) talent from the farm system, which might not bother Bavasi but should bother the organization, because honestly they're not that close to catching the Angels. Bedard gets them slightly closer, but without the talent infusion that Jones/Morrow/whomever would theoretically provide over the next few years, it's hard to imagine the team improving much.

So what's the upside for this current team? Well, Sexson could rebound. His surface numbers stunk last year, but a large part of that was his horrific .217 BABIP. His walk rate and strikeout rate were both better than 2006, and while his LD% fell it wasn't enough to explain the huge collapse in BABIP. With more neutral luck, he could see a return to being marginally productive. Of course, he's also about to turn 33 and is terrible defensively, so the upside is really him being neutral to slightly productive as opposed to a massive black hole. Jose Lopez could realize his considerable talent and start pulling the ball, but that's more a wish than anything tangible. Jones could step in and be an impact player both offensively (replacing the loss of Jose Guillen) and defensively (making up for Guillen's mediocrity in that area). Pitching-wise, King Felix could finally pitch to his peripherals. The bullpen could continue to be great. It's almost impossible for the 4th-5th starters to be as bad as Weaver and Ramirez were last year (unless, of course, Ramirez is one of them).

However, there's plenty of potential downside. Jose Vidro is almost certain to decline from last year's performance. Ibanez and Sexson are both on the down sides of their careers. Johjima could age quickly (he is a catcher, after all). Lopez likely will continue to struggle with the bat. Jones might not be ready for the big leagues after all. Felix could continue to throw predictable fastballs, or even get hurt again.

With enough breaks, this could be a playoff team, but more than likely they're the 5th-7th best team in the AL. That's ok if they still have all their young talent, but if they mortgage quite a bit to get Bedard, that's harder to countenance. In short, they appear like what they really are, a team without any sort of concrete plan. They're not a true contender, and they won't be until they develop a few more useful players from within the system, but they're also not about to undergo a rebuilding phase. The best we can hope for is that Bavasi's need to win now doesn't cost us a chance to win more down the road, and that's a depressingly slender thread.

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 12:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Ok, so the Mitchell Report has been out for 24 hours or so. Everyone's seen the list of names, so there's no use repeating them. What I want to do is examine a few potential future scenarios for Major League Baseball in the wake of the Mitchell Report.

The Utopian Scenario

MLB and the player's union agree to a new set of testing protocol, which includes both year-round testing and blood testing. Both parties fund initiatives to prevent PED use in the minor leagues, college game, and high schools. Everyone understands that the PED era was an unfortunate chapter in the game's history, but that no one person or group was to blame. The owners wanted offense, players wanted money, the media wanted stories, and the fans didn't care how the players got big, just that they helped their teams win.

The Dystopian Scenario

Instead of working together, the owners and players instead get involved in a protacted blame game. The owners claim that players acted without their knowledge, and that owners, coaches, and other team employees can't be held to blame. The players allege that team doctors acted to either provide PEDs or steer players to them, and that they at least tacitly endorsed the PED boom because they got addicted to the surge in offense, and surge in attendance and ratings that followed the 1994 strike. The media and public are more interested in taking down prominent players than in accepting the fact that a large portion of players used PEDs.

The Middle Scenario

The owners and players adopt a few new testing standards (most likely year-round testing, but no blood tests), and mostly manage to avoid a public squabble about the PED era. The media and the fans get their pound of flesh, but also a better understanding that PED use was rampant in baseball.

Obviously, the middle scenario seems to be the most likely one. I think the Mitchell Report will be impetus for at least some change, but ridding the game of PED use is practically impossible. Even with blood testing, their will always be ways for players to avoid detection. Unfortunately, innocence is impossible to regain once it's lost, and that's the reality that we all have to face.

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 1:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

For some reason, I seem to have something against ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick. What can I say, the guy has a tendency to write stupid articles. Today's gem is about the Wild Card, and how perhaps we should give teams that win it additional obstacles to winning the World Series. You can find it, in all of it's glory, here.

First off, let me start by saying something: the way that baseball crowns a champion has always been a bit odd. Teams play 162 games, then have their season narrowed down to a five- or seven-game series. If the purpose of the long regular season is to prove who the best team in baseball (or at least a given league) is, then the playoffs throw all that out the window. It was one thing before 1961, when each league winner went straight to the World Series, but even then you had years like 1960, when the Yankees were clearly the superior team but still lost to the Pirates. If you were looking for the best measure of success, you'd simply award the title to whoever had the best record at the end of the season, but we like to have championship games/series in our sports. With the two added rounds of playoff series, it becomes less and less likely that the team with the best record during the regular season wins the World Series. Because home field advantage means less in baseball than in any other sport, there are few if any advantages to having the best record.

In any case, let's return to the article. The first "reason" proposed why wild card teams have had such great success in the playoffs is that "lots of people in baseball think wild cards have an inherent advantage because they're grinding for victories until the final days of the season out of sheer necessity."

First off, it's been well-established that momentum isn't worth squat in the playoffs. But even better, Crasnick refutes this himself by pointing out that of the six wild card teams to reach the World Series, three of them entered the playoffs with records below or barely above .500 in September.

If the purpose of this article is to make me think that the Wild Card system should be tweaked, so far Jerry is doing a poor job. The next section, about why you should keep the system the same way (as the first option presented) again undermines the whole concept. Crasnick points out that no wild card team has ever won fewer than 88 games, while just last year we had the Cardinals win their division (and the World Series) with 83 wins. There have been a number of years where the Wild Card team has won more games than at least one division winner, so to say that these teams are somehow undeserving of a shot at the World Series is stupid, at least in a world of three divisions per league.

As for the other solutions posited, let's discuss them here. First, expanding the division series to seven games, while perhaps a bit fairer, isn't going to solve the basic "problem." Second of all, MLB has already let the series get spaced out ridiculously because of television, adding another two games would only make the first round drag on longer and dilute the importance of depth.

This deserves a moment of discussion. Before TV ran the show, the playoffs were similar to the regular season in that they required a certain amount of depth to compete. Now, with multiple off days per series, teams with a pair of good starters and a strong starting lineup can dominate (the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks being the prime example) even if the rest of their team is weak. Again, the conditions for success in the playoffs have become noticeably different from the conditions for success during the regular season, which is a more correct way of explaining why wild card teams tend to do well in the playoffs.

Adding another wild card team again delays the playoffs, and one of the things I like most about baseball is that making the playoffs is still a rare achievement (at least compared to the other major professional sports). Plus, how does adding a second wild card team make it less likely that a wild card team wins the World Series (yes, they would in theory play each other before the rest of the playoffs began, but you're still going to have a 25% chance that a wild card team wins the series).

Making the wild card team play four-of-five games on the road doesn't solve much either. As mentioned above, home field advantage in baseball is negligible, and besides, some of the time the wild card team actually has a better record than the division winner they're playing (like this year's Rockies-Phillies series).

Finally, I know you always have to throw in some crackpot theory, but come on, division winners only having to win two-of-five if they won their division by more than five games? You mean that the Indians are so much better than the Yankees that they deserve a massive advantage?

Look, baseball's playoff system is far from fair, but that's an unsolvable problem unless you want to just award the championship to the team with the best record. If you really wanted to make things fair, you'd tighten up the schedule, so that there was at most one off-day during each round so that teams were forced to use their entire roster like they are in the regular season. Still, when you reduce the results of 162 games into a few short series, you shouldn't be surprised when the small sample size produces some strange results. Unless you're Jerry Crasnick, that is, in which case you can feel free to be stunned.

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 1:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

So the Giants are apparently parting ways with Barry Bonds after this year. Makes sense. After all, he was nothing but an aging slugger who was so desperate to break the all-time home run record that he dragged his team down with him. Ok, sure, he posted a 1.053 OPS, but come on, that was only .280 better than the next highest regular (Randy Winn). And yeah, he wasn't the guy who decided spending $126 million on Barry "4.99 xFIP" Zito was a good idea, but it's not like Bonds is some great pitcher.

Seriously, the Giants are morons. Bonds can still hit, and he can still draw fans. Who the hell are people in San Francisco going to go see now? Tim "Inevitable Arm Injury" Lincecum? Pedro Feliz?

Sure, Bonds doesn't solve the bigger problem for the Giants, namely that their GM Brian Sabean is, as the title of this post points out, still an idiot. The team, despite what ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick thinks, does not have a "pretty darned good rotation." They have one good young pitcher in Lincecum and a bunch of crap; Zito, Matt Cain (4.69[thanks David] xFIP), and Noah Lowry (5.46 xFIP). They have no good young position players. They're going to be one of the worst teams in baseball yet again. Sure, if Bonds wanted a multi-year deal I could understand being disinterested. And I could certainly understand Bonds not wanting to stay. But what the hell are the Giants thinking? How on earth are they a better team without Bonds?

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 2:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

So yesterday the news came out that everyone's Golden Boy, Rick Ankiel, received HGH through an illegal prescription drug ring in 2004. Now, I'll be the first to admit that Ankiel was a great story...guy loses his mind on the mound, never recovers his phenom status, comes back as an outfielder, and starts smacking home runs...The Natural, all that. Like I said, it was a great story. Then this. Oh well Rick, it was a great run, but get used to being booed everywhere you go.

Oh wait, apparently not. See, it seems like everyone wants to give Ankiel a pass. "He was just using it to recover from Tommy John surgery," they say, or "it wasn't technically against the rules of baseball (even though he got it illegally)." You know who else didn't technically break any baseball rules, but has been pilloried for his alleged abuse of HGH? Yeah, that's right, Public Enemy #1 Barry Bonds. For a lot of people, Bonds' claims that his lack of popularity was because he's black just seemed silly. People didn't hate him because he was black, they hated him because he cheated. Only now, who looks silly? Not Bonds, but the people who seem insistent on defending Ankiel.

Rick Ankiel cheated, plain and simple. People who say there's a difference between him and Bonds are just kidding themselves. So are the people who say the difference is that "Bonds is an asshole." I ask you this: have any of you met Bonds (or Ankiel)? Will you? Does it matter that Bonds is an asshole? No, what apparently matters to you is that Bonds is an outspoken, defiant black man, while Ankiel is some soft-spoken humble white kid who's clearly not at all mentally stable, considering his highly-publicized meltdown on the mound and inability to pitch successfully again. Who here would be surprised if he melted down in the batter's box one day and stopped being able to hit?

The sad thing is that neither Ankiel nor Bonds really deserve the hatred. They're just the tip of a very large iceberg. Over a year ago, when the news about Jason Grimsley's PED use came out, I wrote

But now, everyone who puts on a jersey is suspect. We've entered a time in which we must acknowledge that not only is PED use rampant, but utterly unstoppable. As much as I'd like to believe that none of my more favored Mariners are using PEDs, I have nothing to back that up but my (almost certainly misguided) faith.

So what does this mean? I'd say we're embarking on a new era in baseball (and by extension, sports). It's certainly been harder and harder over the last 20 or 30 years to view athletes as heroes, but now I think it's not just difficult, it's unwise. It's time to put sports in a more reasonable context: just like actors will have all sorts of things done to their bodies in order to earn more money, even if the long-term health effects are at best unknown, so too will athletes. With the amount of money at stake, it would be foolish to assume otherwise. Perhaps if we're concerned that our children will take to using PEDs in furtherance of their dreams of professional stardom, we could either encourage them to use their talents in other, more worthwhile ways, or at least maybe keep an eye or two on what they're doing to themselves.

I'm not sure there's anything wrong with this approach. These guys are great at baseball, but we all know they want to win and do as well as they can. Just like most everyone else, they saw a way to get better, and took it. Does that make Ankiel (or Bonds) a good guy? No, not in my mind...it makes them perhaps a bit overzealous, but when everyone else around you is using, you do what you have to. What bothers me is the fact that the sports public seems to be interested in pillorying (or maybe lynching) one of those two, while the other seems to be getting something of a free pass. Even the normally astute Will Leitch (probably because of his well-publicized love affair with Ankiel) could only muster a weak "he's my guy" defense. Or take guys like Dan Shanoff, who start out by saying Ankiel is worse than Bonds, but soft-pedal that by saying that they're really just sad that Ankiel cheated, not angry like they are with Bonds. As I said, neither player deserves the anger, but if you're going to get outraged about Bonds it's the height of hypocrisy to not get angry at Ankiel.

I'm writing this piece for many of the same reasons Ben wrote about the Sonics...because sometimes it's better to have someone "removed" from the situation write when the story is this upsetting. Still, I wanted to quote you the e-mail I got from Ben this morning about this story.

I admit I've never been so shocked, not at Ankiel, but reading message boards about it. The guy has got loads of support, saying he did nothing wrong. WTF? He did the same damn thing Barry Bonds did!!!

This is why black people are so damn paranoid. And you know what? If the sympathetic sentiment that it appears Ankiel is getting is more than this crowd (Scott Miller, where art thou?) it will validate everything Bonds said about the racist nature of why people were trying to bring him down.

I'm actually pissed right now. The other cases of white athletes being glossed over for black ones in their crimes (David Kircus, Scott Olsen) had the excuse of "he's not famous enough". But shit, after all the Ankiel hype? No excuse.

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 11:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

There's been a lot of chatter in the Mariners' blogosphere about what the proper reaction to the team should be. Clearly, this season has come completely out of nowhere, and has split followers into two camps. The first says "we never expected to be here, so cut McLaren, Bavasi, Sexson, Ibanez, Ramirez, etc. some slack and enjoy the ride." The second says "sure, we may be in uncharted territory, but that's no reason to not want to continue to improve our chances to win."

I want to leave that behind for a minute, and just relish the fact that today, August 24, the Mariners are just one game behind the Angels in the AL West, conjuring images of 1995, and sit two games ahead of the Yankees in the Wild Card. I love:

Ichiro!'s consummate greatness. Not just the batting prowess, or the tremendous defense in centerfield and the brilliant baserunning, but also the always-amusing quotes, and the fact that we just signed him to a five-year, $90 million extension.

Jose Guillen's fire. The best signing Bavasi made this offseason, Guillen has not just contributed at the plate, but he's been the charismatic rebel in a clubhouse mostly filled with stoic, boring dudes. It's always nice having one guy on the team who's prone to lose his mind at an opportune time.

Putz wooooooooo! JJ's emergence as the best closer in baseball has spawned two fantastic things: a classic Lookout Landing image and a fantastic entrance montage/musical theme whenever he enters the game. Even more amazing is the fact that fans like me remember the days when this was the routine Putz image.

GS52, Potatoes, Green, Morrow, and RRS. The rest of the lights-out Mariner bullpen flies way further under the radar than Putz, but together they form the core of the best bullpen in baseball. George Sherrill is death on lefties (and surprisingly effective against righties), while Eric O'Flaherty would be the prime LOOGY on almost any other team. Sean Green developed a new arm slot and has turned into a ground-ball and strikeout machine. Brandon Morrow seems to have learned control (and a wicked breaking ball) and has been great the last month, and Ryan Rowland-Smith has been mostly unseen despite having good success. With the shakiness of the rotation, the bullpen has had to step up this year, and they have.

Adrian Beltre's obsession with pointing. Seriously, I've never seen anyone point down to first base while check-swinging. AB doesn't just do it occasionally, he does it every time. Why? I don't know, but it's amusing. Also amusing are the people who still think he's a bust, despite a very solid season at the plate and his usual stellar defense at third base.

The Mysterious Voyage of Jeff Weaver. From a 14+ ERA in May to nominal "ace" status in August, Weaver the Elder has had as strange a season as you could ever want. I'm worried that what he's doing now is something of a mirage, but just the fact that he's still on the roster is testament to his persistence.

Miguel Batista, Published Author. Seriously, how many teams have an honest-to-god writer in their rotation? Batista has been mostly good this year, and he's certainly brought a level of erudition to the clubhouse.

The Toughness. This team has suffered through two six game losing streaks, and a seven-gamer. They're still in the playoffs if they started today. How awesome is that? Oh, and they had their manager quit in the middle of the season.

The Funk Blasts. Seemingly a random occurrence first noticed on Opening Day, the Mariners post "Funk Blast" on the scoreboard and play funk music whenever a Mariner hits a home run...they also post "Explosion de Funk" when a Latino player does it and "Sugoi Ippatsu" when Ichiro or Kenji Johjima goes deep. Has led to a number of quality Photoshops.

How about some of my favorite moments?

Jason Ellison going toe-to-toe with "Cupcakes" Blanton in Oakland. Felix's Opening Day start. Felix's start in Boston. Mike Hargrove stealing a win away from Cleveland. Winning three straight games in three different cities (San Diego, Cleveland, and Chicago) on three consecutive days. Jeff Weaver's miracle shutout. Ken Griffey's return. Finishing off a sweep of the Red Sox by getting the win off Joel Pineiro. Richie's walk-off against Minnesota.

It's been a hell of a season, and for one day at least I'm just going to enjoy one of the greatest thrills a sports fan can have: an unexpected playoff run.

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 2:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

So last night was the first part of the USS Mariner/Lookout Landing Nights, which entailed a trip down I-5 for a Tacoma Rainiers game and a pregame Q and A with Mariners General Manager Bill Bavasi. Now, I'm not going to repeat what he said, since the Q&A was officially off-the-record, but I will note a few of my thoughts.

-I really like Bill Bavasi as a person: Dave Cameron said that we would, and he was right. First off, Bavasi was willing to take over an hour out of his time to answer questions from a bunch of fans, and more than that, a bunch of fans who for the most part think he sucks at his job and should be fired. That's pretty ballsy. He also was very candid with us, and answered almost every question that was put to him. We may not agree with his answers, but as I told Dave later, the danger of having Bavasi fired is that the guy who replaces him may not be any better as a GM and almost certainly will be less open with the blogging community than Bill has.

-The team sees Adam Jones and Jeff Clement as nearly untouchable (also Carlos Triunfel). I certainly agree about Jones, but I'm not so sure about Clement. He's unlikely to ever play catcher at the big league level for the Mariners because of concerns about his defense, and while he's a lefty with good power I fear he'll struggle to hit fastballs at the big league level. Still, it was clear that Clement wasn't going to go anywhere at the deadline, at least not for the guys who were being talked about.

-Speaking of which, it was clear that the Mariners were going after a set-up guy at the deadline, as well as Mark Loretta. The most interesting part of the discussion, from my point of view, was hearing Bill talk (at my prompting) about the mechanics of the deadline...how talks that may have broken off days or weeks ago are revisited one last time, to see if either side has budged.

-Reading between the lines (and after talking to Dave), it's clear that Wladimir Balentien isn't really a part of the team's long term plans. They're not going to call him up this year or start the season with him in the outfield next year, and while Bill claimed that he has an extra option year (and thus could start the year in AAA), it's more likely that he gets shipped out for starting pitching help this winter.

-The biggest upgrade Bavasi has made to the team is in the scouting department. The cupboard was mostly bare (besides Felix) before he arrived, and the guys (Bob Fontaine and Bob Engle, primarily) he brought with him have done a very nice job of restocking the farm system. Along with that, they've implemented their policy of pushing kids along very aggressively through the system, and while it's had some noticeable casualties (Matt Tuiasosopo chief among them),

-According to Bill, Adam Jones won't be the everyday left fielder, at least not right away. While I agree that his playing time will depend somewhat on his hitting, I can't believe they'd call him up just to fill the Jason Ellison role.

-It was also $1 Beer Night at the game, so that was nice...especially since I didn't have to drive home or work today.

-Saw a midnight showing of the Bourne Ultimatum last night...excellent film, as all three of the Bourne Trilogy have been. Paul Greengrass (the director) did a wonderful job, as he really forces you to confront the mental state of a man who is desperately trying to remember why he's killed all those people. Go see it.

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 3:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Ok, so the MLB trade deadline is three hours away. The Mariners, fresh off their biggest win of the season, are likely feeling some pressure to make a move, now that the team is legitimately contending for the first time since 2003. Furthermore, while GM Bill Bavasi wasn't with the team at the time, he knows that the biggest complaint about his predecessor "Standing" Pat Gillick is that he wouldn't make trades at the deadline to improve his team, even if it was clear (as it was in 2002 and 2003) that the Mariners needed a boost to remain in contention.

The first item of business is to address the team's needs. Then, we can see if there are any players available who would fit those needs. Lastly, we speculate on what it would cost to obtain those players, and whether such a move would be prudent.

The Needs

The most glaring weakness on the team is the back end of the rotation. I've already covered this in some detail, but I'll summarize: Horacio Ramirez sucks, and the team doesn't currently have a better (healthy) option. Still, with the way the rest of the rotation has been pitching, I see this as less of a need. Plus, there are practically no starters available who would provide anything more than a marginal upgrade over Ramirez. I'd much rather wait and see if Cha Seung Baek can come back, and to be fair, this appears to be the approach the team is taking as well.

Left field is another area of concern: Raul Ibanez has a .694 OPS which is dropping daily. It certainly seems like his career as a useful offensive player is over, meaning he needs to be out of the lineup last month. Plus, he plays atrocious defense. Oh, and the Mariners have the perfect replacement just rotting away at AAA. Unfortunately, the team seems committed to Ibanez, since they've made him into the face of the franchise. If the Mariners aren't willing to sit Ibanez to promote Jones, I can't see them making a trade for an outfielder.

Similar to Ibanez, Richie Sexson has been something of a black hole in the lineup as well, what with his .706 OPS and shoddy defense. But like Raul, the team refuses to sit Richie and give Ben Broussard (.797 OPS, decent defense) more playing time. It's true that they like having a left-handed bat on the bench, but it's more true that they're paying Sexson $14 million this year and next and are desperate to get some return on their investment.

Much lower down on the list is the bullpen, though oddly this seems to be the area the team is most likely to address. JJ Putz is the best closer in baseball, and George Sherrill owns lefties. He's pretty good against righties as well, but manager John McLaren seems unwilling to let him pitch the eighth inning. Sean Green has dominated righties and shown improvement against lefties, while Brandon Morrow is in the midst of his best stretch of the season, showing much improved command of late. Plus, they've just got last year's breakout sensation Mark Lowe back from injury, and Eric O'Flaherty has been solid as the second lefty in the pen. While Bavasi seems to think they need a legitimate set-up guy, I'm more than OK with letting McLaren piece together an eighth inning from whichever of those guys is pitching the best or is the most rested. If the team wants to add another power righthanded arm, they've got Kameron Mickolio hanging around Tacoma, though calling him up would require adding him to the 40-man roster. The other in-house option is to bring back Julio Mateo, who was banished to AAA for sucking and beating his wife, and not necessarily in that order. Still, he's been decent at the big league level other than this year and has utterly dominated AAA since coming off suspension. The team has said they won't bring him up until the case against him is finished, but principles be damned, we have a pennant to win! The team is said to be looking hard at Al Reyes, who's been good this year but is 37 and has had major arm surgery twice already, and Octavio Dotel, who's decent. Why the team would deal away a good young player like Jeff Clement or Wladimir Balentien to marginally upgrade an already-excellent bullpen is beyond me, but perhaps they're just feeling the pressure to do something, anything, so they can show the fans they're serious about competing. Still, at this point I'm just hoping the deadline comes and goes without any deals happening.

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 12:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

So with the MLB trade deadline just around the corner and my Seattle Mariners astoundingly in the thick of the AL playoff race, it's time to look at a few players who might be on the market. The M's, like just about every playoff contender since the beginning of time, are looking to pick up some pitching, preferably a starter. Of course, the pickings appear to be rather slim this season, and it's hard to know whether any of the players who appear to be on the market would actually serve as much of an upgrade.

First, let's look at the pitchers who might be displaced in the rotation if another starter were acquired.

Jeff Weaver: After a disastrous start to the season, Weaver has been much better since coming off the DL. I'm not sure he'll maintain that level of performance, but hopefully the one-third of an inning, six run games (against the Royals, no less) are behind him. Right now, he's entrenched as the fourth starter on the team and probably won't be bumped unless he struggles for an extended period again.

Horacio Ramirez: Brought in this season to be the fifth starter, HoRam has been an utter disaster. He's striking out less than three batters per nine innings and walking more than that. His groundball tendancies are the only thing that have kept his ERA from approaching Weaver's, but he's no Chien Ming Wang. At this point, Ramirez isn't a major league quality pitcher. His last outing was decent, but right now he's on the verge of losing his job again.

Cha Seung Baek: Despite a similar ERA to Ramirez, Baek deserves to be in the rotation once he comes off the DL. He's cut his walks in half this year while bumping his strikeouts a bit. How many teams have a fifth starter with a 3.5 K:BB ratio? Baek has been brutalized by a .344 BABIP and a 58.4 LOB%. His Fielding Independent Pitching is 3.73. The downside is that he doesn't appear to be all that close to coming off the DL, as his right shoulder inflammation hasn't gone down enough for him to resume throwing. With the M's in the thick of the playoff race, it's hard to play wait-and-see with a guy who's got a 5.74 ERA.

The farm system isn't about to provide any relief, as the team has already seen that Ryan Feierabend isn't anywhere near ready for the big leagues (he's only 21). If Ramirez isn't an acceptable fifth starter (and he isn't), and Baek isn't on his way back, then it appears the team will have to look to the trade market to fill the void.

Let's first look at the three pitchers who have been most widely rumored to be available.

Matt Morris: He's been linked to Seattle quite a bit, in part because the M's and Giants have made a number of deals in recent years. Morris has a 4.08 ERA (and a 105 ERA+), which would seem to fit in nicely in the back end of a rotation. He's about to turn 33 and is under contract through 2008 with an option for the 09 season for about $9 million per season. However , there are a number of red flags when you look at his statline. First and foremost, his strikeout numbers have been declining for the last six years, dropping from 7.7/9 in 2001 to 4.4/9 this year. His walk rate, meanwhile, has basically stayed constant. He's still a better pitcher than Ramirez, but that's not saying much. If he were a free agent after this year, trading for him might make sense, but committing to another two expensive years of a clearly declining pitcher is hard to defend, even in the midst of a playoff race. I'd consider the deal if San Francisco would either eat some of the contract and/or take nothing back in return, but there's no way I'm giving up anything but a low-level prospect for Morris.

Jose Contreras: Contreras is basically the Cuban Morris. He's got the same declining strikeout numbers and a barely passable K:BB ratio not to mention two more years at $10 million per. He's also at least 35 (his actual age may be higher) and unlikely to be more than a minor upgrade over Ramirez. Even if the White Sox gave him away, I'd steer clear.

Odalis Perez: Perez has two things working in his favor: he's a lefty, and the team can buy him out of his 2008 option for $1.5 million. Otherwise, he's even worse than Contreras and Morris: a worse K:BB ratio, and a slight groundball tendency. He's not worth a rotation spot, let alone any sort of prospect.

Ok, so the most obvious targets are basically trash. Still, there might be a few players who will come available that could offer some hope.

Jon Garland: With the White Sox struggling, it's possible they might be looking to move other starters, especially since they're unlikely to get anything at all for Contreras. Garland boasts a solid 3.88 ERA, and while he's under contract for 2008 (for $12 million), he's only 27 years old. Despite a better ERA than 2006, Garland's peripherals have taken a dive. He's striking out less than 4/9, while his walks have jumped almost a batter per nine innings (to 2.68). His ERA is a product of luck: lower than expected numbers in BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB%. Couple that with the fact that he has a reputation as a "winner," and the price tag on Garland makes him an unattractive option. If the White Sox are giving him away, I'd certainly take him, but dealing a top prospect (or more) for a guy with scary peripherals is a bad idea.

Javier Vazquez: Ah, now here's an actual pitcher. Vazquez is having an excellent season, striking out over eight batters per nine innings while walking just over two. He's a flyball pitcher, but at Safeco that's less of a concern than at US Cellular Field in Chicago. He's about to turn 31 years old, and while he's under contract through 2010, unlike the other pitchers I've mentioned his numbers are not in decline. Two problems, however. First, he's likely to cost a fair amount in terms of prospects. But the real obstacle is a limited no-trade clause that would keep him from being dealt to Seattle. It's unlikely he'd waive the no-trade clause, as he's previously expressed a desire to be closer to his family in Puerto Rico. Too bad, because he'd be the kind of addition who could actually make a difference.

There are a few more names out there, like Dontrelle Willis and Roy Oswalt, but they're far less likely to be dealt. If their names come up in the next few days, I'll take a look at them. At this point, though, it doesn't look like there's a player on the market who would be worth dealing for (besides Vazquez), which means that the best hope for the Mariners is for Cha Seung Baek to get off the DL soon and displace Horacio Ramirez in the rotation.

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 2:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Editor's Note: This is under my name, but Ben actually wrote it

Mets First Half Grades

Working is harder than I expected.

After being unemployed for my first two years after college I’ve finally entered the work force. And thanks to that, my posting has dropped to nil. I’m adjusting to schedule and dealing with an 1.5-2 hour commute each way, but thankfully both should ease shortly. So for those five people out there who actually like reading my work, you’ll see more of it eventually.

Anyway, what do I write after not posting forever? A cliché Mets’ first half grade piece. Yes, I know, you expect more. Heck I expect more. But it’s better than nothing.

So ladies and gents here are your first half grades for the Blue and Orange.

The Starting Lineup:

Jose Reyes (A): Hard to argue with what Reyes has done this year. Some will quibble with his power outage, but overall his slugging has dropped 48 points while his on base percentage has jumped 33 points. With his speed, that makes him at least a valuable as 2006, if not more so. He’s given above average defense at short- which is what has set him ahead of his below average fielding counterparts in the NL East and in the Bronx.

David Wright (A): I know, he seems to be having a down year. But while his OPS is down, at .879 that isn’t too bad considering how bad his April was. All and all Wright is on pace to top his career high in home runs. He might even go 30/30 this year. Plus his defense has gone from well below average to shockingly, one of the top five in the NL according to fielding metrics. Guess this just shows that one month is just that- one month, not a season.

Jose Valentin: (D) Last year Valentin came out of nowhere to post a stellar .820 OPS and sparkling defense at second. This year, the carriage has turned into a pumpkin as the 37 year old has an .685 OPS. To make matters worse just .297 points of that is on base percentage. He’s missed time due to injury, but it might be time for the Mets to start thinking about a Damion Easley/Ruben Gotay platoon at second.

Carlos Delgado: (D-) The “D” is for disaster. The Yankees gaping hole at first gets all the press, but Delgado’s lousy .705 OPS is even more costly. At least the Yankees are throwing out useful defensive players at first. Most worrisome is his OBP, normally stellar (.381 career) is at .305 this year. That’s because of a paltry walk rate; 7.8%, the only time in his career outside of 1995 it was below 10%. It’s 5% below last year’s rate. In short, there’s a fair chance Delgado be in a steep decline he won’t come out of.

Moises Alou: (C-) In a sense Moises Alou has been a disappointment. In another sense, a more realistic one, Alou has been about what you could expect. He only played in 30 games, not exactly a surprise. He didn’t hit for much power but did post a .375 OBP in his 110 AB. He’s a better player than Carlos Gomez or Shawn Green and his return will help the Mets a great deal offensively. Of course, how long he’s back for is another question.

Carlos Beltran: (B-) An enigma. Beltran has been great at times, poor at others all and all leading to an .817 OPS. Not terrible for a centerfielder with his defensive abilities, but a far cry from last year’s .982 mark. I can live with the drop in power, but the fact his OBP has dropped from .388 to .340 (his mark in 2005 was .330) is most distressing. Beltran probably was hurt for part of the year, but outfielder injury bug kept him off the D/L by necessity. If that’s the case, he should improve on those numbers from here on out.

Shawn Green: (C-) Should have lost his job in spring training, but Willie Randolph maintained his typical “Veteran Obstinacy” by benching Lastings Milledge and keeping Green. Turns out Green had a great first month and a half. Then he broke his foot, came back and became the typically bad Shawn Green. The .275 average doesn’t indicate how bad Green is; the .325 OBP and horrible outfield defense does. Now as the second half rolls around, Willie can bench Green again for Milledge. I’m not holding my breath, unless Milledge absolutely rakes in the time between now and Moises Alou’s return.

Paul LoDuca: (D+) It’s no secret I don’t like LoDuca. I think his “Heart and Soul” thing is media hype and nothing more. And outside of Carlos Delgado, no player has hurt the Mets more this season than LoDuca. He has no OBP (.325), no power (.372 slug) and is below average behind the plate. At least Jose Valentin gives a defensive boost in theory. Too bad the Mets couldn’t have traded for Michael Barrett.

Bench:

Ramon Castro: (B+) In his limited at bats (78), Castro has a .349 OBP and .548 slugging. Mets fans would riot and call Latino favoritism if Castro was made the starter, but the reality is he could hardly do worse than LoDuca. There’s at least 50/50 chance he does better too.

Ruben Gotay: (B) Limited AB but the same deal as Castro. In a platoon situation with Damion Easley there’s almost no way he could give the Mets less at second than Valentin has this season. He won’t OPS .891, but the Mets would take .800 from him at this point.

Damion Easley: (B) Easley should only play against lefties, but he was forced into action against righties this year. He’s perfectly fine as a platoon player. Anything more and he’s exposed. Oh and speaking of exposed…

Endy Chavez: (B-) There are some Mets fans who swore Chavez should be playing everyday. No, no and no. Maybe over Shawn Green, but not over Milledge, Carlos Gomez and Mosies Alou. He’s too inferior an offensive player. He posted a .743 OPS (.336 OBP) before his injury and it was steadily dropping as he was playing every day. Chavez is a good fourth outfielder and a great defensive replacement. But he should only play everyday when everyone is hurt, to paraphrase the greatest dugout of all time.

Julio Franco: (F) Old man Franco is the bane of Mets fans’ existence these days. This one they may have gotten right. He has stunk this year, .200/.328/.260. That’s incredibly bad. The Mets won’t cut Franco, but he just hasn’t been very good this season. They should be able to find a AAA player who could contribute more. Heck, what is Lenny Harris up to these days? Editor's Note: Hope he's ready to start drawing on that 401(k) plan, because Franco has since been DFA'd by the Mets.

Carlos Gomez: (C-) Should have been in AAA. He doesn’t have the plate discipline necessary to succeed in the bigs yet and unfortunately will lose most of the rest of the year due to a broken bone in his hand. When he played, he was fast, ran down fly balls (though misjudging them badly) and whiffed A LOT. (24.1%) The .686 OPS isn’t great but he’s not much worse than Shawn Green at 21. That is more an indictment of Shawn Green than a compliment for Gomez.

David Newhan: (D) As bad as Julio Franco at the plate, but costs less and can play more positions. I can see a place for him on a roster, but he should be the last man on it.

Ricky Ledee: (Inc) Was here. Now is not. If he clears waivers probably will be back eventually. As a fifth outfielder he can only do so much to help or hurt the team.

Ben Johnson: (Inc)I hated trading Heath Bell, but no one believed me back in the day when I said he was actually good. He might be intriguing with 350-400 AB but Milledge is ahead of him and rightfully so. He has no place here.

Lastings Milledge: (Inc) Reportedly worked his butt off in spring training and played well. His reward was three AB in two weeks. He went down to AAA, broke his foot and is now on his way back. He’ll likely be called up to start the second half. Good- he could be the key for the Mets offense in the second half.

Starting Pitching:

Tom Glavine: (C-) Started the season like a house of fire, but his peripherals were not up to snuff. The end result saw him having a rough stretch in June. His ERA now resides at 4.36. Amazingly he hasn’t had an ERA above 4.00 since his first year for the Mets. However his peripherals are about the same from that season. Right now he’s the third best pitcher on the team though, so it’s acceptable.

Orlando Hernandez: (B) There’s a possibility El Duque is close to the same age as Julio Franco. If that is in fact the case, he gets props for effort since he’s more effective. The 3.22 ERA is nothing to scoff at but with a terrible 1.97 K/BB combined with .97 GB/FB rate, it’s likely he’s in for serious regression. Oh and another D/L stint.

John Maine: (A) I criticized Maine in early June as having been lucky. He was walking too many guys to be effective. The righty has since seen his K/BB jump .50 to 2.33. You’d like it to be higher for a fly ball heavy pitcher (.81 GB/FB) but you’ll take it. His BABIP and HR/FB% are still below norms. The latter can be explained by Shea to a degree, the former is luck. (Though the Mets pitchers ALL have BABIP below normal) Maine should see some regression, but he should be a solid pitcher the rest of the way so long as he maintains his recent control.

Oliver Perez: (A) At the same time I was criticizing John Maine, I was hailing Oliver Perez as actually being the best pitcher on the Mets staff. Unfortunately since, Perez’ K rate has declined and his walks risen. The 2.30 K/BB is below what you want to see from an extreme fly ball pitcher like Perez (.63 GB/FB). His HR/FB and BABIP are similar to John Maine- so expect regression. Still there’s no denying he’s been one of the bright spots for the Mets this year.

Jorge Sosa: (C) Quick what happens when you have a pitcher who has a K/BB of 1.65 and a GB/FB ratio of .92? Bad times that’s what. What so why does he have a 3.92 ERA? Sosa has been exceptionally lucky so far with BABIP and HR/FB rates below normal. When he comes back from the D/L, poundings are likely to ensue.

Mike Pelfrey: (D-) Three weeks ago he’d have gotten an “F” as he was sent to AAA after posting a horrendous K/BB below one and not getting nearly enough ground ball outs to compensate. His strikeout rate was down so there was serious cause for concern. However his last two starts have shown a little better K rate. Hopefully this continues, though Pelfrey does not figure to be long in the rotation should Pedro Martinez’s rehab go as planned.

Jason Vargas: (D) Lots of talent- will he ever harness it? Your guess is as good as mine. He had an okay start over a month ago and then predictably got bombed in Colorado. (Fly ball pitcher in Coors? Gee, I wonder if that’s a good idea?) I still would have him start over Dave Williams though.

Dave Williams: (F) I’ve never liked Dave Williams because I’d rather the Mets toss a young player with upside than a soft tossing lefty that tops out as a number five. But hey, I’m not Omar Minaya. Then again, after his debacle against Houston last weekend, it might be a long time before Williams gets another crack.

Chan Ho Park: (F) That was a waste of a start. He’s since been cut.

Relievers:

Aaron Sele: (D-) He’s a long man so I’m not sure if it’s possible to fail. But Sele blows. He’s got a 4.41 ERA in 32.2 IP, a miserable 1.31 K/BB and isn’t generating nearly enough ground balls (1.24) to be effective. The Mets haven’t really been hurt by him, but they’re not helped by him either. I suppose that’s why he’s the long man.

Ambiorix Burgos: (B-) Burgos’ strike outs were down as were his walks, though overall his 2.11 K/BB was essentially equivalent to his rookie year. Despite the low K/BB, he showed enough to make you believe the 22 year old could be a good set up man down the road. Unfortunately, his elbow have exploded. In which case, see ya in 2009.

Joe Smith: (A-) The rookie right handed sidearmer was brought in to take Chad Bradford’s role as a specialist--- well more like came out of relative obscurity to earn the role after being drafted just last year. Smith has a tidy 2.75 ERA and a very good 8.50 K/9 thus far. His control has not been as good as he’s walking 4.50 per nine for just a paltry 1.89 K/BB. Well paltry if he didn’t also generate 3.25 times as many ground balls as fly ones. He hasn’t been spotless, but he’s been about as good as one can hope from a rookie set up man.

Pedro Feliciano: (A-) Perhaps the most underrated reliever in baseball, which is amazing considering he pitches for a New York team. Yet Feliciano has now posted a sub 3.00 ERA for the last year and a half. His strike out rate is solid once again, over 8.00/9 for the second straight year. His control has worsened however, so he should see his ERA rise a bit from it’s current 2.51 mark. Still he’s generating 1.81 times more ground balls than fly balls, is left handed and succeeding. Maybe it’s time he’s given the props he deserves.

Guillermo Mota: (C-) Mota received loads of press for testing positive for steroids then getting a two year deal from the Mets. I bet he wishes that were still the reason he was getting press clippings. Nope. It’s more the 6.65 ERA in 21.2 IP. But Mota has been a bit unlucky, having a 3.17 K/BB. However he’s got BABIP of .333 and a HR/FB% of 16.0. This isn’t odd since we’re dealing with small sample size.

Still small sample size got Heath Bell traded. Somehow though, I doubt Willie will lose the faith in Mota that he did in Bell.

Aaron Heilman: (C) Mr. Heilman is suffering through some serious Dave Bush syndrome. What is Dave Bush syndrome? When a pitcher’s peripherals don’t match his ERA and things like BABIP and HR/FB don’t explain it. Heilman has struggled to pitch to a 3.83 ERA, yet has a K/BB of 3.44, (better than last year) a HR/FB% of 10.6 and a BABIP of .266. To put it simply, I’m not sure what is going on here. Heilman still can be quite useful, but I’m not sure the Mets will trust him in a big spot down the stretch.

Scott Schoeneweis: (D+) A mini upset here--- he doesn’t fail! Why? Well he actually gets lefties out- they’re hitting just .222 against him. He hasn’t given up a home run to a lefty either. The problem? He sucks against righties, to the tune of a 1.058 OPS against. Yet Willie Randolph insists on using him against righties. This makes no sense. Thus while Schoenenweis has been bad, the large heap of the blame belongs to the manager here.

Billy Wagner: (A+) I care not about all star games because they are exhibitions. JJ Putz has been the best reliever in baseball, but peripherally Wagner has been right with him. He has a 1.64 ERA to go along with a K/9 of 11.97 and a K/BB of 5.10. Yeah, that’s pretty darn good. The difference between the two is entirely BABIP- Wagner’s is a more normal .269. Putz is .164.

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 9:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

So on Monday I graded the position players. Today, the pitchers. Once again, my grades are based on a combination of performance and expectation.

Cha Seung Baek - C: Baek was the guy called up to take Jeff Weaver's spot in the rotation when he went on the DL, and actually did a decent job. His overall numbers (3-3, 5.74 ERA) don't look all that good but his peripherals are actually fairly strong (3.54 K/BB) as he displayed far better control this year than he has in the past. He was just terribly unlucky (.347 BABIP, 58.4% LOB), which explains the high ERA (he's got a 3.73 FIP). If Horacio Ramirez struggles after the break, Baek deserves another shot at the rotation, though with the caveat that the numbers he's posted this season are far better than his career numbers (but in about the same number of innings as he had at the MLB level heading into this year).

Miguel Batista - B-: Batista gets a bit of break in the grading because his worst month was in April, when he posted a 7.54 ERA. Since that point, he's been very solid, with a 3.68 ERA. He's not a great starter, but has thrown a lot of innings at a pretty effective level. His strikeout and walk numbers aren't all that inspiring, but he gets a good number of ground balls. In short, he's a useful pitcher, and gets a useful grade.

Jason Davis - D: Davis had a stint as the long man out of the pen, and was serviceable, I suppose. He's gone now, and I don't really care.

Ryan Feierabend - F: Sure, I understand that the team didn't have very many good options with Ramirez and Baek both hurt. But bringing up a 21-year-old pitcher not named Felix Hernandez is a bad idea. I'm not sure if Feierabend will ever be a major league pitcher, but he's sure not right now. His command is weak, and his one out pitch (a very good change-up) hasn't been enough for him to keep hitters off balance. At this point, he needs to go back to AAA Tacoma and spend the rest of the season pitching down there. Maybe we'll see him again in 2008.

Sean Green - B+: Talk about surprises: Green was always a guy that I figured was mostly just end-of-the-bullpen fodder. But he's started dropping down to a lower arm slot since May and he's become another very strong arm out of the pen for the M's. He strikes out almost a batter per inning, and righties are OPSing just .648 against him this season. While he struggled with his command a bit earlier this year, the recent returns have been encouraging. Plus, he gets a buttload of ground balls. Sounds like my kind of reliever.

Felix Hernandez - B: Ok, so it's been something of an up-and-down season for the King. His first two starts of the year were an eight-inning, two-hit shutout of the A's followed by a one-hit complete game shutout of the Red Sox in Fenway to spoil Dice-K's debut. Then, he hurts his elbow, misses a month, and comes back with a lower arm slot, decreased velocity and movement, and a propensity to throw nothing but fastballs in the first inning or two. He gets beat up, the blogosphere gets outraged, and then finally pitching coach Rafael Chaves gets him to read the open letter that USS Mariner penned, and he starts mixing his pitches. The results? 16 innings, seven hits, two runs. We'll see if he keeps it up after the break.

Julio Mateo - Suspended: The ol' Win Vulture was up to his usual tricks this year, snatching a win away from a more deserving pitcher and continuing to worm his way into high leverage situations for no good reason. Then, he beat his wife, got caught, and got suspended and banished to AAA. Good riddance.

Brandon Morrow - C: Sure, the results (for the most part) have been good. But it's the process that worries me. Morrow needs to be in the minors, working on controlling his excellent fastball and learning how to start, not walking over a batter an inning in the majors. His velocity has dipped over the last month or so, and with the M's having a number of good arms available in the pen it's time for him to be sent down, or at least moved to lower leverage situations. There's still a ton of potential in that right arm, but at least with Morrow it's time to look to the future, not the present. He's in over his head, and that's a dangerous place for a pitcher with no command and a history of arm issues to be.

Eric O'Flaherty - A: Another unsung member of the pen, O'Flaherty has done an excellent job in a variety of roles, including escaping from a bases-loaded, no-out jam on Sunday to keep the Mariners within one run of the A's. He's not a big-time strikeout artist, but he's got good command, gets ground balls, and utterly destroys lefties (.413 OPS against, no extra-base hits). As the second lefty out of the pen, he's about as good as it gets.

J.J. Putz - A+: Putz had a great year last year, and I said that he deserved to considered among the top closers in the game. No more: no one else is on JJ's level this year. He leads all of baseball in Win Probability Added, and his numbers are just ridiculous. 24-24 on saves, 0.88 ERA, 6.3 K/BB, 1.24 GB/FB. Ben will argue that Billy Wagner has been as good, and it's true that some of JJ's uncontrollable peripherals are low (BABIP, LOB). However, just looking at results, no one has been in his league. He hasn't allowed a run since June 2, or in his last 15 appearances. He's the MVP of the pitching staff, and you could make an argument that he's been as valuable as Ichiro to the team.

Horacio Ramirez - F: How in the world can a guy who writes for a major sports website list Bill Bavasi third on a list of the best GMs in the AL? Doesn't Heyman realize that Bavasi's two biggest moves this offseason were to deal two prospects (even if they weren't very good prospects) for a fat, slow DH with no power (oh, and to take on his contract, worth about $14 mil over the next two years) and to acquire a crappy, injury-prone starter with mediocre stuff in return for a really good reliever? Yes, the team is playing well, and he's made some good moves, but let's not get too excited. Ramirez will probably rejoin the rotation after the All-Star Break, and while he's sure to be an improvement on Feierabend I'm not holding my break for a Weaver-esque resurgance. Ramirez has awful stuff (just 3.12 K/9) and middling command (4 BB/9). Yes, he generates grounders, but that's only so useful. His FIP makes him look like a decent #5 guy, and I'd settle for that at this point. But I'd still rather have Rafael Soriano.

Chris Reitsma - F Whether it's because of arm trouble or just plain suckage, Reitsma was a failure in his first go-around as set-up guy. The potential is there to be a useful arm, but he doesn't strike many guys out which means his control has to be spot-on. He's another guy who gets ground balls, so he has his uses, but this team still needs a power right-hander in the eighth inning, and Reitsma just isn't that guy.

George Sherrill - A+: GS52 has been almost as good as Putz this year: 1.29 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 5.8 K/BB, and he's been deadly against all hitters (.336 OPS against versus lefties, .452 against righties). At times the team has seemed willing to let him face right-handers, while lately he's been more like an uber-LOOGY. With the emergence of Green as another right-handed set-up guy, that's been ok, but I want to see Sherrill allowed to face a righty if the need arises.

Jarrod Washburn - B: Another typical Jarrod Washburn season, only this time he's gotten a few more ground balls. His peripherals are what they always are, and his BABIP and LOB are right at league average levels. The only reason his ERA is low (besides a few more grounders) is a 5.1% HR/FB, but that will likely come up soon enough. Washburn's a useful pitcher, and at Safeco he'll keep the team in games.

Jeff Weaver - C: Holy crap, what a bizarre season. If you'd told me on May 10th, after he'd been lit up yet again (this time by the Tigers) that he'd not only still be with the team at the All-Star Break, but that I would be happy about it I probably would have punched you in the face. Whether it really was an arm issue that caused Weaver to be so terrible, or he just needed to figure something mechanical out, he's been 180 degrees different since coming off the DL. His velocity is up, his command has been better, and he's used an assortment of speeds and arm angles to keep hitters off balance. I'm a bit skeptical that he can keep it up, but I hope he does. After single-handedly losing his first four starts of the year, he's almost single-handedly won his last four...bizarre.

Sean White - F: A Rule 5 pick, White's now on the DL with a mysterious arm injury. He was terrible in his limited appearances, and with the depth of the bullpen I can't see him getting into games even if he does come back of the injured list.

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 2:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Oh dear god, whatever shall we do! I'm not sure if you heard the terrible, terrible news, but apparently big bad Major League Baseball is banning Baseball Tonight from the All-Star Game! How dare they do that to Orestes Destrade! I mean, all ESPN did was violate their agreement with MLB by announcing the All-Star Game lineups before TBS finished their hour-long special (which they cruelly outbid ESPN for the rights to). What sort of crime is that? They were merely trying to bring information to the people. Viva la revolucion! Viva ESPN!

So what if some folks are apparently deriving joy from seeing ESPN publicly rebuked. I say that those people don't realize how awesome the 2006 World Series of Poker is, because they haven't watched in 100 times like I have. They also don't understand the majesty of Steve Phillips debating with himself, or holding mock press conferences which are in no way the only chance he has to ever see himself as a GM of a real baseball team again. You're probably the same people who defended that horrible man Harold Reynolds, he of the utterly inappropriate hugs. I hate you all. The sky is falling!

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 3:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

So with the baseball season headed into the All-Star Break, it's time to hand out grades for my squad, the Seattle Mariners. Grading is a combination of overall contribution to the club, but viewed through the eyes of my preseason expectations. Of course, the team as a whole has exceeded all but the most optimistic expectations, and they've got fans here in Seattle more excited about baseball than we've been in five or so years. Today, the position players go under the microscope...tomorrow (or as soon as I get to it), the pitchers.

Position Players

Adrian Beltre - B: Beltre gets a lot of crap for his contract, and for the fact that he's so far failed to come close to duplicating his 2004 season in Seattle. But throw that out the window, and you're left with a guy who's posting an .815 OPS (118 OPS+) in a park that's death to righties, and doing it while playing excellent defense at third. Sure, it would be nice to see some more home runs (though he's on a hot streak now), and he's prone to long, ugly slumps. But you know what? There aren't many teams in baseball who have a better third baseman than Beltre.

Yuniesky Betancourt - D: After breaking onto the scene with a strong rookie season last year, Betancourt has regressed in just about every facet of the game. He's got a .682 OPS (81 OPS+), and while he still has sick range he's already committed 19 errors, one fewer than last year. His tendency towards pop-ups is extremely frustrating, and he's the least patient hitter (.301 OBP) on a team of free swingers. At this point, it's a bit painful having him in the lineup every day, though the M's don't have any other legitimate options.

Willie Bloomquist - C+: While Boom Boom is a favorite whipping boy of most Mariners bloggers, he's actually having a respectable season. While his .688 OPS may seem pathetic, he's actually played fairly decently the last month despite having to step into the starting lineup way too many times. His versatility as a defender and his baserunning abilities make him a useful guy to have on the bench, but the team would be well served to limit his at-bats the rest of the season.

Ben Broussard - B-: Big Ben has done a pretty good job whenever and wherever he's been inserted into the lineup. He's posted a 119 OPS+, which, while not stellar for a first baseman/corner outfielder is serviceable enough, especially for a guy who doesn't play every day. He's also come through with some clutch hits, as evidenced by his being second on the team in Win Probability Added.

Jose Guillen - B-: Guillen is another one of the Mariner hitters who, while not having a fantastic season, has still been a boon to the club. His 113 OPS+ is above his career numbers, and so far he's defied expectations by both remaining healthy and being a positive factor in the clubhouse. He's a bit slowfooted, which doesn't matter as much in Safeco (and with Ichiro next to him), but he's shown several times this year that his throwing arm is recovered from elbow surgery. In short, he's been a solid investment for a club that hasn't made many of them this offseason.

Jamie Burke - A: While it seems strange to grade a back-up catcher this highly, Burke has been huge for the Mariners this year. Last season, Rene Rivera posted an OPS+ of 15. Yes, that's 1-5. This season, Burke's OPS+ is 134. Not only does that mean the club actually gets production when they choose to rest Kenji Johjima, but it also means they can rest him more frequently, something that will hopefully keep him fresh for a potential pennant race in the second half.

Jason Ellison - D: Ok, this might be a bit harsh. After all, Ellison is the 25th man on the roster, used as a pinch-runner and late-innings defensive replacement. And his defense has been solid enough. But he's just 1-2 in stolen base opportunities and has a .318 OPS (-12 OPS+). Sure, it's in just 34 at-bats, and they've been scattered throughout the season, but still, you'd like to see a bit more from the guy, if only so you could feel better pinch-running for Ibanez, or Guillen, or Broussard in late-game situations.

Raul Ibanez - C-: Ok, so no one expected him to match his season from a year ago (33 homers, 128 OPS+). And sure, he's hit better as the season has progressed. But the bigger problem with Ibanez is that his defense has gotten to the point where he needs to be DHed. His offense is valuable enough to keep him in the lineup, but he just can't cover the spacious left field in Safeco. Now, I know he's not the guy who keeps writing his name in the lineup card

Kenji Johjima - B+: Kenji is turning out to be one of Bill Bavasi's best moves. He's provided a solid bat and solid defense at the catcher position, and done so for below market value. He got off to a very hot start this year, and while he's been struggling a bit at the plate lately, his overall contribution (112 OPS+) has been welcome for a team that, prior to the 2006 season, had historically gotten little out of the catcher's position, at least offensively.

Jose Lopez - B: Lopez heads into the break with decent numbers offensively (94 OPS+), but it's the improvement in his defense which gives him a good grade. Last year, he struggled with his range, but it seems to have improved somewhat this year. He has good power to left field, but the team for some reason has tried to turn him into a slap hitter. At this point, he's a slightly above average second baseman, but bump his power a bit and maybe get him to take a few walks and he becomes a much more valuable player. He's also still just 23 years old.

Richie Sexson - D: While ol' Dick Sexson may traditionally be a slow starter, this year is taxing the patience of both fans and the organization. The team isn't paying him an eight-figure salary for him to post a 95 OPS+ and play crappy defense at first base. A second-half surge would certainly help the team out a great deal, and there are a few encouraging signs: his strikeout numbers and walk numbers are better than they were in 2006, and he's posting a ridiculously low .212 BABIP. On the down side, he's hitting fewer line drives. While the second half might be better, at this point Richmond has been quite a weak point for the M's.

Ichiro Suzuki - A+: Boy, moving Ichiro to center has done wonders for the team. Now, his 135 OPS+ makes him a legit MVP candidate, at least when you couple it with his stellar defense. After a slow April, Ichiro has been on fire the last two months and continues to amaze me with his brilliance on the field. If he keeps it up, and the Mariners make a surprising playoff run, he might add another MVP to his mantle.

Jose Vidro - F: Part of this isn't his fault, he's just terribly mis-cast as a designated hitter. While he has a respectable .349 OBP, his utter lack of speed and power mostly negate that plus. Additionally, because the team gave up players to get him (and are paying him quite a lot of money) he's keeping the team from DHing Ibanez and calling up Adam Jones. Throw in a league-high number of double plays, and you've got a failing grade.

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 1:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

So it's time for a break from the non-stop Sonics talk. With the Mariners at a season-high 9 games over .500 and poised to start a series with the middling Blue Jays, it's time to start getting excited about not just one, but two teams! I was reading some of the diaries on Lookout Landing and this comment prompted me to come up with my own list of where I stand with the 30 baseball teams.

Teams I Love
Seattle Mariners - duh

Teams I Will Root For if They Don't Play the Mariners
New York Mets - you're welcome, Ben
San Francisco Giants - same, David

Teams Whose Sorry History Prompts Feelings of Pity, Rooting Interest
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Florida Marlins
Kansas City Royals
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Teams Whose Sorry History Inspires Dislike
Chicago Cubs
Texas Rangers
Washington Nationals

Teams In the AL West Who, Despite Competing With the Mariners for the Playoffs I Have to Admire for Their Continued Success
Oakland Athletics

Teams I Don't Really Care About
Arizona Diamondbacks
Detroit Tigers
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
St. Louis Cardinals
Toronto Blue Jays

Teams I Dislike Because of History
Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Indians

Teams I'm Told I Should Dislike Because They're the Mariners' Rival
San Diego Padres

Teams I Hate Because of Their Asshole Fanbases
Atlanta Braves
Boston Red Sox
Chicago White Sox
New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies

Teams Which I Would Gladly See Subsumed In the Fiery Pits of Hell
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

So where do you stand on the 30 MLB teams?

Posted by Zachary Geballe at 5:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

What is it about memory and baseball? Far better writers than I have remarked that no sport dwells in the past like baseball does. Heroes and legends from baseball's early years have a relevance that George Mikan or Sammy Baugh could only dream of. Many people who weren't even born when Hank Aaron broke Babe Ruth's career home run record are up in arms that Barry Bonds is almost certain to hit #756 at some point this season. Perhaps it's the languid pace of the game that invites reminiscing, or the fact that without a few good stories to tell a night at the ballpark can get boring quick if the home team is struggling.

In any case, with Ken Griffey, Jr set to make his first appearance in Seattle since leaving the team after the 1999 season, I found myself awash in Griffey memories all morning. My relationship with The Kid has been a subject I've covered before, but he still remains the central figure in my growth and maturation as a sports fan.

I remember moving to Seattle after the 1989 season. The Mariners (which basically meant Griffey at the time) were one of my first links to my new home: I'd missed the excitement of Junior's rookie season, but it was clear how popular he was, at least amongst kindergarten-aged boys. In fact, looking back on it, until the trade, I didn't know Seattle without Griffey in it.

The next year, I remember the talk that signing Ken Griffey, Sr was just a publicity stunt. It might have been, but it worked out far better than anyone in the M's front office could have imagined. Not only were there the fantastic milestones, when they became the first father-son duo to play on the field at the same time, to get back-to-back hits, and back-to-back home runs, but Senior actually played some of the best ball of his career (granted, in limited ABs), posting a .377/.443/.519 line (good for a 168 OPS+). In August, he made the catch that first cemented him in the baseball consciousness: robbing Jesse Barfield of a homer in Yankee Stadium, then running back in to the dugout with a massive grin on his 20-year-old face.

The next few years saw Junior grow into his role as one of the game's best players. There was the 1992 All-Star game, when he singled, doubled, and homered en route to winning the MVP. I remember sitting in rapt attention on July 28, 1993. The Mariners were in the midst of another boring loss to the Twins. It would have been a forgettable game, if it were not for the fact that Griffey had homered in the previous seven. When he stepped up in the bottom of the seventh, in what could have been his final chance to tie the MLB record, just about everyone I knew had the TV or radio on. The Kid didn't disappoint, parking a Willie Banks fastball into the upper deck in right field. The next day, if I recall correctly, he hit a double off the top of the wall, coming a foot or two short from having the record to himself.

I remember 1994, when he seemed poised to make a run at Roger Maris, before the strike intervened. Of course, that merely heightened expectations for 1995. I was there on May 26, when Griffey hit a massive home run off the foul pole, a shot which was rapidly eclipsed by the catch he made, robbing Kevin Bass of an extra-base hit. Oh, and he did it while breaking his wrist.

He'd come back in August, and I was there when he instigated one of the greatest late-season