SZ Live Postponed One Day
Listed in: FootballDue to the games and my work schedule, Sportszilla Live will air tomorrow...I'll update with the exact time later.
See also: Sportszilla LiveDue to the games and my work schedule, Sportszilla Live will air tomorrow...I'll update with the exact time later.
See also: Sportszilla LiveBoy, that was ugly. I've certainly been privy to some lopsided playoff games in my time, but yesterday's 42-20 loss by the Seahawks to the Packers might take the cake. What made it so painful was the fact that Seattle was gifted a 14-0 lead thanks to a pair of Ryan Grant fumbles in the opening minutes, but gave it back (and then some) almost as quickly. It was a total team failure: certainly, the defense deserves a good portion of the blame for allowing Green Bay to score touchdowns on six straight possessions, but the offense did next to nothing after scoring those two early TDs.
There were a few potential turning points in the game that stick in my memory. The first was on Green Bay's third possession, with the Hawks up 14-0. The Packers had moved the ball to midfield, but faced a third-and-seven. Seattle sent six blitzers, who were easily picked up by the blockers, and Favre found James Jones for a 32-yard gain that moved the Packers deep into Seattle territory. That drive ended in a touchdown.
The following Green Bay possession, now leading 14-7, Jordan Babineaux had a sure-thing interception drop through his hands. He should have made the pick. But, as I always tell Ben, if defensive backs could catch the ball, they'd be receivers.
But the truth is, the Seahawks were overmatched. They couldn't stop anything the Packers did on offense, they couldn't pressure Favre, and offensively they couldn't sustain drives.
So where do they go from here? I'm not sure, but here are a few questions I'd like to have answered.
What is Mike Holmgren going to do?
He's got to be demoralized by once again having his season end in Green Bay against his former team. Holmgren has hinted at retirement a few different times, and it wouldn't shock me to see him walk away. Mike's always been an offensive coach, and the future of Seattle's offense doesn't look all that bright, so he might not have the patience to rebuild that unit over the next few years. While I certainly won't miss his ineptness at managing a clock, his devotion to washed-up veterans, or his questionable play calls, there's no doubt that the Holmgren Era has been the most successful in Seahawk history...five straight playoff berths, four straight division titles, a Super Bowl appearance.
What about Shaun Alexander?
I've been harping on this for a year-and-a-half, but Alexander is toast. As Bill Simmons would say, he's got the big ol' pitchfork sticking out of his back. The year-long inability to run the ball probably cost the Hawks a win or two, and it certainly prevented them from threating defenses enough to loosen up the pass game. Hopefully, Shaun either retires (highly unlikely) or gets cut (possible).
So what moves do the Seahawks make during the offseason?
Here are what I see at their biggest needs, both for next year and long term.
First and foremost, they need a guard to replace Chris Gray. Gray has always been a stop-gap type guy, and while they could get away with him when he was the weak link on the Jones/Hutchinson/Tobeck lines, his flaws have been repeatedly exposed this year. The Seahawks were terrible at running the ball up the middle, and countless times Gray was unable to block one-on-one in the pass game, even against linebackers. Obviously, the Seahawks have desperately missed Steve Hutchinson the last two years, and drafting a guard in the first few rounds should be a fairly easy choice.
Running back will also be an area to look at in the draft, though not necessarily in the first round. Maurice Morris is a decent player, but I don't think he's a legit full-time running back. The third or fourth round would be a good place to take a gamble on a guy with some upside, since you wouldn't necessarily need him to step in and start from day one.
A halfway decent tight end would also be nice...Marcus Pollard was clearly not a good fit as a stopgap, and Seattle could really use a guy to stretch the defense and provide some blocking help, instead of guys who can do one or the other.
Additionally, the team needs to start thinking about long-term replacements for a few stalwarts, namely QB Matt Hasselbeck and LT Walter Jones. Neither will be easy to replace, but smart teams plan well in advance for such issues. Jones in particular has started to slip (All-Pro honors notwithstanding), so having a young left tackle in place in a season or two would be a big boon to the organization.
Defensively, things look a bit more set. The front seven should be set, especially if Marcus Tubbs can stay healthy (big if). The secondary could use some help. Pro Bowl cornerback Marcus Trufant is a free agent, and while I'd expect Seattle to resign him there's no guarantee that they do. In that case, adding a cornerback is a pressing need. Otherwise, finding an upgrade over safety Brian Russell would be a nice move to make.
In short, I'd look to spend the first few picks in the draft on some combination of a guard, tight end, running back, and safety. Additionally, if they've got a tackle or quarterback they like as a developmental project, that would probably be a good move.
Depending on who they add via the draft and free agency, the Seahawks could be a contender again next year. They've got most of the pieces of a very good defense in place, and sage drafting could forstall a collapse by the offense. But the turmoil of a coaching change coupled with a couple of poor picks, and Seattle could be on the outside looking in for the first time since 2002.
See also: NFL, Seattle SeahawksBe back soon with a Seahawks-Redskins wrap-up, but this note in the AP write-up for the Jags/Steelers game needed some attention:
But quarterback David Garrard, not a great runner, found a seam on a convert-or-else fourth-and-2 play and rambled 32 yards to the Steelers 11 with 1:56 left.
Garrard led all quarterbacks in DPAR as a rusher
Edit Also, FoxSports.com's front page headline (in reference to the Jags game) reads "Home Invasion." Considering what happened to Sean Taylor, and the fact that his team played today, I'm not sure that's the best choice.
See also: Hackery, Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL, NFL PlayoffsAlright, after a hectic week we're back with the NFL Picks: unabridged version. Week 14 is probably important to a bunch of NFL teams, but it's far more noteworthy as the beginning of fantasy football playoffs around the country. In the five years of their history, the Seattlesaurus has never played during Week 14: the first four years it was because we never made the playoffs. This year, it's because we have a first-round bye. It couldn't have come at a more opportune time, with stars Brett Favre and Reggie Bush nursing injuries. 2007 saw a record-high finish for my fantasy baseball team, and this year's football squad has already achieved more than any other in my not-so-illustrious past. Two more wins, and we can give hope to all the downtrodden fan bases (except the Cardinals, they'll never win dick).
This Week
Ben: 11-4
David: 10-5
John: 11-4
Zach: 11-4
Redskins -3 vs. Bears
Ben: Redskins. Right.
David: Bears. Wrong.
John: Redskins. Right.
Zach: Redskins. The theme of this week's picks is: who does this game mean the most to. Tonight's game obviously matters most of all to Joe Gibbs, who choked away last week's game against the Bills. The Bears are a good team, and I think Gibbs is smart enough to keep the ball away from Devin Hester. Right.
Lions +10.5 vs. Cowboys
Ben: Cowboys. The Boys are kicking ass and taking names. The Lions have remembered who they are. Wrong.
David: Cowboys. If not for the Pats, this Cowboys team would be feted at every turn, with rampant comparisons to the '98 Vikings. Wrong.
John: Cowboys. I wonder if the people in Detroit have given up on their season yet? They should. This team has packed it in and the boys are looking for payback after a late season loss last year, and Jon Kitna talking some smack afterwards. Wrong.
Zach: Lions. This game means the most to: The rest of the NFC. Dallas has looked awesome almost all season, but much like the Patriots have struggled lately I think I see a few too-close wins in store for the Cowboys. After all, something needs to keep the NFC playoffs interesting. Right.
Bills -7 vs. Dolphins
Ben: Bills. Miami shouldn't be winless. The problem is their close losses are in the past and this current injury ravaged team might be the worst team in the league not named the Niners. After getting trashed at home by the Jets, it's hard to see them beating a better Bills team in Buffalo, in December. Right.
David: Bills. Rational: With the first pick of the 2008 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select Glenn Dorsey.
Trap pick, because even though he's a beast, he won't be in a position to succeed: With the first pick of the 2008 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select Darren McFadden. Right.
John: Bills. The Dolphins will win a game before the season is out, but it won’t be in freezing cold Buffalo with the Bills looking for a playoff spot. Right.
Zach: Bills. This game means the most to: Cam Cameron. He's running out of chances to avoid the ignominy of 0-16, and while playing in Buffalo in December is never a good thing for Miami, this might be his last best chance at a win. It won't happen, and Cam will have a damn hard time keeping his job. Right.
Eagles -2.5 vs. Giants
Ben: Eagles. Don't trust Eli Manning. Nope don't trust him one bit. Beside the annual Giants swoon is upon us. Wrong.
David: Eagles. Eli isn't very good. We know this. Almost everyone knows this, but the G-Men have to ride him as far as they can. Wrong.
John: Eagles. The Giants continue to get by playing bad football, but the other teams can’t seem to take advantage. The Eagles will, and this will catapult them to potential playoff run. Wrong.
Zach: Eagles. This game means the most to: Donovan McNabb. AJ Feeley isn't good, and a solid performance by #5 should bury any lingering controversy. Of course it won't, because most Philly fans are racist, ignorant assholes, but it's worth a shot. Wrong.
Jaguars -10.5 vs. Panthers
Ben: Jaguars. Two jungle cats battle and only one will emerge. The Panthers are more like an old, beat up house cat while the Jags are a ferocious, hungry beast. Or in layman's terms, the Panthers suck and Jags are good. Go with the good team. Right.
David: Jaguars. As as been documented numerous times this season, the Panthers QB situation is bad enough that their reasonably talented line and receivers don't really matter. Right.
John: Jaguars. The Panthers are just awful, and the Jaguars are darn good. Right.
Zach: Jaguars. This game means the most to: Whoever approved these expansion franchises. Jacksonville is a good team playing in a terrible city, while Carolina is a terrible team playing in a good city. Hooray for oversaturating the southern US with sports franchises nobody follows! Right.
Titans Pick vs. Chargers
Ben: Chargers. Albert Haynesworth is back so I'm very tempted to jump on the Titans again. I also feel dirty trusting Norv Turner. Now I know how the Chargers' ownership feels! Right.
David: Chargers. Just a hunch that Vince will make one more dumb play to overcome the Chargers' poor preparation and playcalling. Ultimately, I think we're all still blaming San Diego for not being as awesome as we thought they should be, but they're still not that bad. Right.
John: Chargers. The Titans are in a downward spiral as people realize Vince Young has a better chance of running the ball on any given play for 20 yards, than throwing it. Right.
Zach: Titans. This game means the most to: Albert Haynesworth. Shut down LT, and he's got to be a lock for DPoY. Wrong.
Bengals -7 vs. Rams
Ben: Bengals. The Rams are playing well these days. But now starting at QB for Sunday's game, Brock Berlin. The same Brock Berlin whom I affectionately nicknamed Pick Hurlin' dating by to his days as Kenny Dorsey's heir at the U. I never thought I'd see the day when he got a chance to quarterback an NFL game. What's next? Chris Rix (or Chris Picks?) starting a game? Drew Weatherford taken on day 1 if the NFL draft? Jessie Palmer, lead studio analyst? Oh wait…Right.
David: Bengals. I haven't seen what Ben wrote, but I'm going to guarantee a lame Brock Berlin joke. Lame? Yes, lame. Because I've got a better one.... In this game, the Rams are going to collapse faster than the Brock Berlin Wall did in November '89. Right.
John: Bengals. The Cats seem to have put it together a little bit. See what kind of glue Chris Henry is for a locker room? But seriously, this will be a scorefest and the Bengals are more adept at playing outside in the cold. Right.
Zach: Bengals. This game means the most to: Ben Valentine. Because if Brock Berlin is even marginally competent, it will throw his whole love affair with Ken Dorsey into turmoil. Right.
Packers -10.5 vs. Raiders
Ben: Packers. Long week for Green Bay, at home, against a Raiders team that is due for a loss. I don't see the Raiders winning here, so I won't pick them.Right.
David: Packers. I'm not scared of Brett Favre's injury, because Favre is the man against which all other men are measured. Anyone else, and, collectively, we'd be wondering if Aaron Rodgers's performance indicated that maybe the whole offense is pretty strong and it's not just a Favre resurgence driving the Pack. Regardless, the Raiders suck. Right.
John: Packers. This is a bad matchup for Oakland who needs to run the ball to be effective. The Pack will be annoyed after loss to Dallas last week. Right.
Zach: Packers. This game means the most to: Ryan Grant. We know Favre's tough. We know he's good. The Packers need him to be both to have a shot at the Super Bowl. Oakland's got a good pass defense, but they suck against the run, so expect to see plenty of Grant to buy #4 a bit more time to recover. Right.
Patriots -10.5 vs. Steelers
Ben: Patriots. Because as soon as I jump off the Pats bandwagon they'll start winning big again. Right.
David: Steelers.I've finally turned. The linebacker situation for New England is dire. Note the teams The Pats have been playing recently: Philly, Baltimore, and now Pittsburgh. I'm not usually one to put much stock in things like swagger and attitude, but I think in this case, there's a grain of truth related to swagger and attitude hidden in here. Consider: Until the Eagles game, the Patriots didn't play any opponent whose defensive personality was that of a proud aggressor. New England's offense has been taking on that role, bullying and smacking around other teams. Finally, when they faced Philadelphia, the Colvin situation came up, and they finally faced an explicitly aggressive team. Baltimore was more of the same. Now, the Pats are so talented, they were able to capitalize on opposing quarterbacks' mistakes and escape with wins, but I think the Steelers have the talent, even minus Polamalu, to stick with the Patriots, hit back when the Pats try to bully them, and win outright. Wrong.
John: Steelers. The Pats mediocre play for two straight weeks catches up to them and the Steelers end the undefeated season. Wrong.
Zach: Patriots. This game means the most to: Bill Belichick. This is it Bill. The brass ring. Your team has flirted with disaster the last two weeks, against inferior teams. The offense has played well, but not anywhere near the level you'd established the first ten games of the year. Defensively, people have realized that without Roosevelt Colvin your linebackers are old and slow. Losing in Indy, to a very good Colts team, would have been understandable. Losing at home to a mercurial Steelers team, a team missing one of their top defensive weapons could derail your entire season. Let's see what you've got. Right.
Texans +3 vs. Buccaneers
Ben: Buccaneers. Jeff Garcia is starting, so I feel comfortable taking the Bucs here. Wow, that's something I didn't think I'd say three years ago. Wrong.
David: Buccaneers. So help me, if Tampa makes the NFC Championship Game, we're going to hit critical mass on uses of the word "scrappy". Wrong.
John: Texans. After a big win last week the Bucs let down against the Texans. Right.
Zach: Buccaneers. This game means the most to: Nobody except fantasy owners. Tampa Bay is going to walk away with the NFC South. The Texans are going nowhere. Still, there are enough Andre Johnson owners out there to keep a few folks tuned in. Wrong.
Seahawks -7 vs. Cardinals
Ben: Seahawks. NFC West football at it's best! Right.
David: Seahawks. Subtracting Shaun Alexander makes all the difference. On a separate note, is it possible Ken Whisenhunt is working to make the quarterback position fungible? Tim Rattay! Tim Rattay! Right.
John: Seahawks. The Arizona receivers are all banged up, and they can’t play on the road. Seattle, on the other hand, is great at home. Right.
Zach: Seahawks. This game means the most to: Shaun Alexander. He was decent enough last week to stave off criticism and get almost all of the carries (which is a reason the game was closer than it should have been), but he has almost no leeway with fans (and hopefully the team). Struggle again against the Cardinals, and I think we'll see more Mo Morris. Right.
49ers +8.5 vs. Vikings
Ben: Vikings. I hear that Adrian Peterson guy is good. Also heard; the Niners can't pass. That means a long day against the Vikings dominant front line. Right.
David: Vikings. I love Patrick Willis. That said, don't be shocked if Purple Jesus has 200 yards by halftime. Right.
John: Vikings. One team is rolling, the other stinks to high heaven. Right.
Zach: Vikings. This game means the most to: All the other crappy NFC wild card contenders. Even with no quarterback and a suspect pass defense, this Vikings team appears to be the frontrunner for the final playoff spot in the NFC. With a cakewalk this week, Minnesota is well positioned to seize that spot, which spells trouble for the Lions, Cardinals, Eagles, Redskins, and everyone else who doesn't suck quite enough to be out of the race. Right.
Jets +3.5 vs. Browns
Ben: Browns. It's a long anticipated rematch of the Civil War between Derek Anderson and Kellen Clemens. (Oregon State/Oregon for those not up on their college football rivalries) If I were in NY watching this game, I'd be making non stop Simpsons and Matrix jokes for four quarters. Right.
David: Browns.Just to keep up, the Jets' offense will have to pick it up big time. Color me skeptical. Right.
John: Jets. Wrong.
Zach: Jets. This game means the most to: the city of Cleveland. Let's face it, this Browns team has overachieved all year long. They look like they could be headed for a Lions/Cardinals type fade: a team that has no history of success starts out strong, only to collapse once they realize that they're the Browns and are supposed to suck and crush their fans. Bad juju takes a long time to overcome. Wrong.
Broncos -6.5 vs. Chiefs
Ben: Chiefs. I don't know who is going to win this, which means a big spread is a no-no. I'm taking the points. Wrong.
David: Broncos. Is Jay Cutler the most overlooked solid starting QB in the NFL? I think it's because he's bland. And played at Vanderbilt. He's the perfect mix of un-terrible and un-brilliant. Wrong.
John: Broncos. I think I’ve picked the Broncos wrong every single week this season. One day they’re beating the Steelers, the next they can’t beat the Raiders. Right.
Zach: Broncos. This game means the most to: Mike Shanahan. Yes, he has two Super Bowl rings, but I think people in Denver are getting mighty sick of his whole schtick (and the last two underwhelming seasons). Right.
Ravens +9 vs. Colts
Ben: Colts.I just get the feeling Baltimore will be hung over from their Monday night loss and be a bit flat facing Indy here. Right.
David: Colts. Huge letdown game for the Ravens after their most emotional game this season (and that's saying something for the Ravens). They're less talented to begin with, so if they have any trouble getting up for the game, forget it. Right.
John: Colts. Ravens are imploding after that awful loss to New England. Mike Gravel has a better chance of being President with Dennis Kucinich as his running mate than Brian Billick does at coaching the Ravens again next season. Right.
Zach: Colts. This game means the most to: lovers of football cliches. See, the Ravens are coming off an emotionally draining loss to the Patriots on Monday: short week, another tough game, spells big time letdown. Also, they're not very good, which helps. Right.
Falcons +5 vs. Saints
Ben: Saints. Don't all jump onto the Chris Redman bandwagon at once people.
David: Saints. I always confuse Chris Redman with Mike Redmond.
John: Saints. The Saints are another team I haven’t picked right all year but you gotta figure they’ll be up for a nationally televised Monday night game, right?
Zach: Falcons. This game means the most to: Reggie Bush. And he's not even playing in it. The rumblings are getting louder and louder about him being a bust as a running back, so he desperately needs the Saints offense to struggle. I'm undecided about the whole issue: it seems like there's an equal chance that the Saints just haven't figured out how to use him effectively, since most of his touches seem to be two-yard passes where he's supposed to beat three defenders. Maybe he needs another back to take some of the pressure off him, or maybe he needs another system, one that can get him the ball in space so he can make big plays. Of course, it could just be that his speed and elusiveness are less exceptional now that he's playing in the NFL.
Last Week
Ben: 6-10
David: 8-8
John: 8-8
Zach: 11-5
Season Standings
Zach: 120-76-11
David: 106-90-11
Ben: 99-97-11
John: 88-108-11
Just throwing the Thursday game up so it's on record...rest of the picks coming later.
Editor's Note:. Sorry folks, I'm out of town and stuck in a snowstorm, so all you're getting are the picks...I'll update as soon as I can.
This Week
Ben: 6-10
David: 8-8
John: 8-8
Zach: 11-5
Cowboys -6.5 vs. Packers
Ben: Packers.
David: Cowboys.
John: Packers.
Zach: Cowboys.
Ben's Picks
Falcons +3
Redskins -5
Vikings -3
Texans +3.5
Jaguars +7
Dolphins -1
Chargers -4
Eagles -3
Panthers -3
Saints -3
Browns +1
Broncos -3
Giants -1
Steelers -7
Patriots -20
David's Picks
Lions
Rams
Texans
Jets
Redskins
Chiefs
Colts
Eagles
Panthers
Buccaneers
Browns
Broncos
Giants
Steelers
Patriots
John's Picks
Jets
Rams
Bills
Vikings
Titans
Jaguars
Chiefs
Eagles
Panthers
Saints
Giants
Browns
Broncos
Bengals
Patriots
Zach's Picks
Rams
Redskins
Vikings
Titans
Jaguars
Jets
Chargers
Eagles
Panthers
Buccaneers
Browns
Broncos
Giants
Steelers
Patriots
Season Standings
Zach: 109-72-11
David: 96-85-11
Ben: 88-93-11
John: 77-104-11
So the NFC Report is back after taking a couple of weeks off. From the Eagles nearly taking out the Patriots to the potential return of the Purple Jesus, it's been an exciting week in the NFC. However, there's only one storyline in the NFC worth discussing today, and it's a doozy.
Tonight, all eyes will be in Dallas as the 10-1 Cowboys host the 10-1 Packers. We've already been privileged to see a match-up of unbeatens earlier this year, but a showdown of one-loss teams this late in the year is almost as rare. Hopefully, the game is as competitive as the Patriots-Colts game was.
First off, these are a pair of very good teams, but at this point it's clear that the Cowboys are the superior team, with a better offense and defense. However, the difference between the two isn't that great, and while the Cowboys are (and should be) favored, a Green Bay win would be far from shocking.
Many of the storylines leading into this game have centered around the quarterbacks (as they usually do), and both Brett Favre and Tony Romo have been excellent stories this year. Romo has shook off the disastrous end to the 2006 season to emerge as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. His improvisational skills can be stunning to watch, and he's mostly managed to avoid the dumb throws which plagued him late last year. Obviously, the rest of the offense has made things easier on him, but most of the same players were in place a year ago when Romo routinely forced balls into traffic, costing Dallas several winnable games. His ascension has steadied a quarterback position which has more or less been in flux since Troy Aikman retired.
Speaking of retired, that's what most people expected Brett Favre to be by this year. Instead, he's not just still playing, he's posting the best year of any quarterback not named Tom Brady. For years, I was one of those folks who was sick and tired of hearing about #4, but what he's doing this year is simply amazing. Yes, part of the credit belongs to an underrated corps of receivers, but a lot of it should go to Favre, who's having his best season in a decade. Still, the Packers are far from a one-man team. The mainstream media keeps painting them as a pass-only offense, but they're actually 9th in rushing DVOA. They don't run all that often, but they run effectively when they do, and their ability to spread the field with four- and five-receiver sets means that opposing defenses can't stack against the run on any but the most obvious run situations. Defensively, they're strong against the run, as the Vikings found out a few weeks ago, and the pass defense is decent. However, they'll be sorely tested against the Cowboys, who have a pair of talented receivers in TO and Patrick Crayton as well as tight end Jason Witten. The weakness of the defense is the safeties, so expect to see a lot of Owens deep, as well as Witten going up the seams.
The one area where the Packers have an advantage is on special teams. Green Bay has been better in both kickoff returns and kick coverage, and in a game that figures to feature quite a few scores that could prove somewhat meaningful. If this game were in Green Bay, I'd probably pick the Packers, but the Cowboys being at home and being the better team makes it hard to pick against them.
Beyond the Packers and Cowboys, the rest of the NFC is something of a mishmash. Tampa Bay and Seattle have emerged as the classes of a pair of horrific divisions, but expecting either team to put up much of a fight against the top two seems hard to fathom. Two other teams will make the playoffs, but the rest of the teams in the race are all horribly flawed in some way. Of course, at this same junction we said that Colts-Pats was just Round One, and that they were certain to meet in the AFC Championship game. That's a bit more in doubt now with all the injuries that have ravaged Indy, but still could happen. Similarly, barring a fluky set of injuries or some other unforeseen circumstance, expect to see Green Bay and Dallas playing again in six or so weeks.
See also: NFC, NFC ReportJust the Thanksgiving Day picks for now...the rest will come eventually. Like they are now.
As always, picks are against the spread and home teams are bolded.
This Week
Ben: 9-7 (3-0)
David: 8-8 (3-0)
John: 5-11 (1-2)
Zach: 7-9 (2-1)
Lions +3 vs. Packers
Ben: Packers. The most repeated line in the NFL this week: "Who would have thought the Lions Thanksgiving Day game would mean the most?" Answer, not me. That doesn't mean this one will be close though. The Pack are the far better team and laying the three is an easy for this one. Right.
David: Packers. I don't find Brett Favre all that annoying anymore. I do find the older generation's incredulousness at the Pack's success annoying. Is it really difficult to understand that the defense is good, the offensive line is solid, the receivers are talented despite being unheralded, and Favre has finally reined in the gunslinger schtick? It's not a miracle; it's people learning what works and who's got skills. If Jake Plummer can change, then Brett Favre can change, then I can change, then you can change. We can all change! Right.
John: Lions. The Lions disappointed me last week, but they are very strong at home and the Packers traditionally do not play well in domes. Wrong.
Zach: Packers. The Packers are, at best, the #2 team in the NFC. The Lions are a fraud at 6-4. I'd give 10 points, so only giving three is yet another thing to be thankful for today. Right.
Cowboys -14 vs. Jets
Ben: Cowboys. After an expected and thrilling win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, do I buy into the hype? Do I dare say the Jets have turned a corner? Answer, hell no. Short week, road start for Kellen Clemens. I'm not liking this one for Gang Green. Right.
David: Cowboys. Wade Phillips is not a terrible coach. He's a retread, which is not inherently bad, but hiring him was a conservative move by an owner I respect for thinking outside the box when it comes to running a football team. Apparently, Phillips's greatest coaching blunder has defined him to this point, benching Doug Flutie in favor of Rob Johnson. However, his Buffalo teams certainly weren't awful, and he's considered one of the most successful defensive minds in the game. The Boys' offense was already in place, so hiring him made intuitive sense. Granted, I think going for someone like Mike Singletary, a guy all his players love and describe with singular affection, and a guy who is supposedly on top of everything as a manager, would have been the bold move. (Incidentally, Singletary is the single best coaching hire you can make if you immediately fire your coaches in Madden.) All that's to say that I don't believe in Kellen Clemens right now, nor do I believe in any sort of Jets' defensive resurgence. I just hope the crashing and burning doesn't ruin my Thanksgiving. Right.
John: Cowboys. This will be a game of utter destruction. You shouldnt even have to have the TV on after the 3rd quarter. The Jets had their big game last week, and the Cowboys always get up for playing on Thanksgiving. Right.
Zach: Jets. I like Kellen Clemens to keep providing Jets fans with (false?) hope. Wrong.
Falcons +12 vs. Colts
Ben: Colts. The Colts have been so decimated by injuries, they struggle these days to beat below average AFC West teams. So why can't I pick them here? Answer, the Falcons are a terrible football team with no quarterback, a porous offensive line and a putrid run game. I can't expect a win, so I won't expect a cover. Right.
David: Colts. Right.
John: Falcons. The Colts are too banged up, and not playing well enough to be giving up this many points. Wrong.
Zach: Colts. Hate this pick, but I can't in good conscience take the Falcons, even though the Colts are decimated by injuries. Right.
Bengals +1 vs. Titans
Ben: Titans. We all wonder what the premium positions in the NFL are. Quarterback is easy, but are there any other areas where one player can make a tremendous difference? The Colts struggles without Tony Ugoh tell us the left tackle might be one. The Titans recent defensive struggles with Albert Haynesworth out suggest defensive tackle is another. That said, the Bengals run game as been putrid so I don't think they can take advantage of it.
David: Titans. The Bengals are in a freefall. Two major stories to watch in Cinci as the season unfolds: Chad Johnson's concussion/neck issues, and how the league might address the team regarding his treatment, and Marvin Lewis's job security. I'm thinking more and more Lewis will have to catch on as a defensive coordinator somewhere next year.
John: Titans.
Zach: Titans. All the injuries on defense make this a tough pick, but I like Vince Young to build on last week's good outing against a miserable Cincinnati defense.
Browns -3.5 vs. Texans
Ben: Browns. Andre Johnson means a lot to the Texans, but I'm not sure Houston has the ability to stop the Brownies on offense.
David: Browns. The Cleveland offense is legit. If the draft were done over today, knowing what we know now, JaMarcus Russell might still go number one, but it would be an extremely difficult decision whether to take him, Joe Thomas (my choice), or Adrian Peterson. Forget Brady Quinn. The Browns got the right guy with their first pick.
John: Browns.
Zach: Browns. Who else here thought this would be the marquee matchup of Week 12? Ok, I lied, no one saw this coming.
Chiefs -5 vs. Raiders
Ben: Chiefs. The second tier game of the weekend in Arrowhead stadium. Saturday night Missouri defeated Kansas to win the Big XII North and are now just one win away from a national title game berth. That's right, Mizzou/Kansas trumps Chiefs/Raiders, in football. Never thought you'd see that, did you?
David: Chiefs. Sorry to see Priest Holmes retire again. That said, KC's early troubles might be attributable to a lack of any receiving threat. With Dwayne Bowe emerging, they're finally mediocre.
John: Raiders.
Zach: Chiefs. Wither JaMarcus?
Rams +3 vs. Seahawks
Ben: Seahawks. After two good games in a row, the Rams have elevated themselves to third worst DVOA in the league. That said, if the Hawks don't cover this, they don't deserve to make the playoffs, even if they win the NFC West.
David: Seahawks. I love watching Matt Hasselbeck with four wide sets. It fits him, it fits Holmgren, and it fits their line personnel.
John: Rams.
Zach: Seahawks. The Rams beat the Saints and the 49ers. I'm not buying this "resurgence" one bit.
Giants -7.5 vs. Vikings
Ben: Giants. This feels like the classic Giants trap game, especially since the G-Men struggle against teams with good lines. I expect Chester Taylor to run wild against the Giants, but the Vikings secondary will get shredded.
David: Giants. I reiterate: Eli Manning will cost the Giants a playoff game. They'll beat the dregs of the league, but they can be contained by better teams.
John: Vikings.
Zach: Giants. The questions at running back actually might help New York, since the way to beat the Vikings is to throw on them over and over.
Buccaneers -3 vs. Redskins
Ben: Buccaneers. Lost in the Colts, Patriots, Packers, Steelers and Cowboys talk, the Buccaneers are actually a pretty good football team. They are sixth in DVOA, and right behind the Steelers. The Skins are also a solid team, but I don't like them on the road against a defense that is hard to beat down the field.
David: Buccaneers. Is it fair to say Jeff Garcia's having a resurgence? Can we all agree he's done after this season, and the Bucs will either have to find someone off the scrap heap again, or draft Colt Brennan, or something? I get the impression people think Garcia's this little scrappy guy who's always barely won his jobs and then succeeded by the skin of his teeth when he has played, which isn't true. After dominating the CFL, he had three great seasons in San Francisco.
John: Buccaneers.
Zach: Buccaneers. Shouldn't Jeff Garcia and Jason Campbell switch playing styles, just so none of Ben's co-workers are confused?
Panthers +3 vs. Saints
Ben: Saints. Just when they look like they are turning it around the Saints get trashed by the Rams and Texans. If they can't beat this god awful Panther team, they might as well just take the rest of the season off.
David: Panthers. I hate the Panthers with a passion. This is a team that has talent on the offense, but can't figure out how to use it. On the other hand, the Saints continue to leave me befuddled. I have no idea what will happen.
John: Saints.
Zach: Saints. Contract the NFC South.
Jaguars -7.5 vs. Bills
Ben: Jaguars. Don't trust this Bills team on the road; not one bit.
David: Jaguars. I'm inspired by Ben's purchase of a David Garrard jersey. Also, the Buffalo QB situation is still unsettled, and their homefield scrappiness will be absent in Florida.
John: Bills.
Zach: Jaguars. I wonder just how worried the Colts are about Jacksonville.
Cardinals -10 vs. 49ers
Ben: Cardinals. Incredibly, this Niners team has the chance to be even worse than the 2005 Niners team. Doesn't someone have to lose their job for this?
David: Cardinals. Tim Rattay's revenge will be complete, and he can go become the Dread Pirate Roberts.
John: Cardinals.
Zach: Cardinals. Amazingly, I'm actually a bit worried about the Cardinals this year. Not a lot, mind you, but more than ever before.
Bears -2 vs. Broncos
Ben: Broncos. Denver has not played well this year, but they've come on as of late. The fact the Bears are favored is a testament to the fact people haven't forgotten they were NFC champs a year ago. A year is a long time though and this Bears team is one of the worst in the league.
David: Broncos. Lovie Smith, also with his job on the line. Kyle Orton, still rocking the neck beard. Still pining for a chance to play.
John: Broncos.
Zach: Broncos. The Bears are an embarrassment this year.
Chargers -9 vs. Ravens
Ben: Chargers. Baltimore was a mediocre football team that has become a bad football team over the last month. The Chargers are a talented team that is horribly coached and as a result, inconsistent. I'll take the team that plays up and down, rather than the team that is just going down.
David: Chargers. Norv kills me. But so does Brian Billick. I get the feeling Billick is very good at some things, like creating a solid clubhouse culture and giving coaches the tools they need to teach players, but on the other hand, he and his coaches are terrible at in-game strategy, and the individual talented players they've had over the years have bailed them out. I repeat: Bring on the Troy Smith era!
John: Ravens.
Zach: Ravens. Just a hunch.
Patriots -22.5 vs. Eagles
Ben: Patriots. I hate Boston fans and Philadelphia fans, so maybe a comet will strike Gillette Stadium Sunday.
David: Patriots. I'm not even looking at the line. What is it? 37? Bah. Let me take this moment to say that with the Pats winning as they have all this season, I find myself wondering what the lines would be in my video game world. I mean, I'm playing a dynasty NCAA08 in which I'm crushing the Big Ten week in and week out. When I play Indiana, would my line be 70? 75? 80?
John: Patriots.
Zach: Patriots. How can you not pick them?
Steelers -16 vs. Dolphins
Ben: Steelers. I hate giving up sixteen points with a team that tends to play down to its competition but I can't see the Dolphins winning. On the other hand, Ricky Williams may be starting, so that gives me a little incentive to watch.
David: Steelers. Now that I've made that pick, Ricky Williams will explode for 200+ yards and the Dolphins will cover.
John: Steelers.
Zach: Steelers. I'm not sure there's any place for a guy who smokes pot in the NFL. I mean, won't he feel out-of-place alongside Ray Lewis, or Leonard Little, or Chris Henry?
Last Week
Ben: 9-6-1
David: 7-8-1
John: 9-6-1
Zach: 13-2-1
Season Standings
Zach: 98-67-11
David: 88-77-11
Ben: 82-83-11
John: 69-96-11
Sorry these are up so late, but me drinking a ton last night after work and David sending his picks in this morning equals a short write up.
All picks are against the spread, home teams are bolded
This Week
Ben: 9-6-1
David: 7-8-1
John: 9-6-1
Zach: 13-2-1
Jaguars -3 vs. Chargers
Ben: Jaguars. DVOA says the Chargers have actually been a better team this year. Of course that doesn't factor in the injury to David Garrard, who is back this week. At home, against a Chargers team that took advantage of a beat up Colts team only to nearly blow it in the second half, I'll take the Jags. Right.
David: Jaguars. Norv kills me. Right.
John: Jaguars. I’m about as down on the Chargers after their win last week, than I have been all season along. The Jaguars on the other hands are coming off a monster win against the Titans, and see a chance to move towards first place with the Colts battered by injuries. Plus, Garrard will likely start. Right.
Zach: Jaguars. The win over the Colts was a mirage, a figment, like the idea that Norv Turner should be an NFL head coach. Right.
Ravens +2.5 vs. Browns
Ben: Browns. Now here's a line I bet you never expected to see coming into the season. The Ravens get a boost because Air McNair maybe permanently grounded but their secondary has been a joke all season. The Browns' strength is through the air, and Mr. Anderson should have easier pickings this week than he did last week against the Steelers. Right.
David: Browns. My, how the mighty have fallen. I suspect this will be the first game the Ravens give up more than 31 points at home since they moved to Baltimore. Right.
John: Browns. Despite the fact Kyle Boller is finally starting, the Ravens are a team in disarray and the Browns will be angry off their loss last week. Right.
Zach: Browns. Ok, I agree, the Ravens suck. Right.
Eagles -10 vs. Dolphins
Ben: Eagles. Back in college, I had a professor who railed against the "War on Drugs". We read books which essentially painted it as a needless waste of money which punished minorities for no real good reason. Push.
Why do I bring this up?
Because Ricky Williams has essentially not been able to play in the NFL because he smokes weed. WEED! In a league that employs thieves, vehicular manslaughter-ists, guys who have illegal armories in their homes etc… Williams cannot play because he has the nerve to smoke pot in his own free time. Now tell me, how does Williams' suspensions make any sense compared to what else NFL players do?
David: Eagles. Miami stinks to high heaven. I really can’t justify any reason for Cam Cameron to keep his job after this season. Push.
John: Eagles. I think Philly might make a run at the postseason. Westbrook is healthy and Mcnabb is rounding back into form. Push.
Zach: Eagles. Is John Beck, who spent two years on a Mormon mission, God's third-string QB?Push.
Falcons +3 vs. Buccaneers
Ben: Buccaneers. Somewhat scary pick because of the possibility Byron Leftwich plays. His ability to throw the deep ball makes the Dirty Birds' offense borderline mediocre. Still, the Bucs should be the better team, right? Right.
David: Falcons. Another “whatever happens, I couldn’t have predicted it” game. Can we put a moratorium on Joey Harrington jokes if he wins, or am I allowed to make fun of him, still? Wrong.
John: Buccaneers. The Falcons still stink. The Bucs are off a bye and see the Saints making a potential run at first place. They make a statement in this game. Right.
Zach: Buccaneers. No way this line should be so low, the Bucs are the class of that (admittedly awful) division. Look for them to separate from the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers today. Right.
Vikings -5 vs. Raiders
Ben: Vikings. I got burned last week taking the Raiders against an even worse team than the Vikes in the Bears, and the silver n' black and blue were at home. This week they're on the road. Chester Taylor is no Adrian Peterson, but the Raiders run defense has been gashed pretty badly this year. By the way, remember when Oakland was in first place in the AFC West? Right.
David: Vikings. I hate picking this game. Minny has no top class running back, anymore, nor do they have any semblance of a passing game, but Oakland’s so bad that I have to take the home team. Right.
John: Vikings. Without Adrian Peterson, this is a lot of points even if it is against the Raiders. Never the less, I’ll go with my gut here. Right.
Zach: Vikings. Sure, Purple Jesus is great, but with the Minny O-Line and the Raiders run defense, even I could probably crack 100 yards. Right.
Bengals -3 vs. Cardinals
Ben: Bengals. wo teams with surprisingly similar DVOAs, so I'm taking the home team. Plus, after their win last week, the Cardinals have just suckered a bunch of people into believing they can win the NFC West. You know what that means, don't you, Mr. Prisco (In all seriousness, Pete Prisco might not be the worst football writer on Sportsline these days. Check out some of the stuff Clark Judge wrote this week. Just plain awful.)? Wrong.
David: Bengals. Trust the home team will take care of business between two fairly even teams. Wrong.
John: Bengals. I haven’t picked either of these teams right all year long. Here’s to some possible Cincy momentum. They have too much talent to keep losing. Wrong.
Zach: Bengals. Can't pick the road team. Wrong.
Colts -14.5 vs. Chiefs
Ben: Chiefs. The Colts have been a much better team than the Chiefs this year, but with half the team now missing due to injury, does that mean very much? Even at home, two scores seems to be a lot to be handing out to a team without two left tackles, all their starting linebackers, two receivers maybe a tight end and their best player on defense. Heck, the Colts are so hurt, the Chiefs might be able to steal this one outright. Right.
David: Colts. “All I’m saying is, Peyton Manning has landed!” (I’m quoting some dude from Charlotte, NC, talk radio who pulled this one out when the Colts played the Panthers. When Priest Holmes, 2007 version, is the primary back, that’s a huge problem.) Wrong.
John: Chiefs. The Colts are all banged up, and haven’t won many games big all season long. Right.
Zach: Chiefs. Way too many injuries to take Indy. Right.
Lions +2.5 vs. Giants
Ben: Lions. I don't think the G-Men are all that good. Give me the decent team they've beaten. Washington? The Lions are built to pass and that does not bode well for a pass rush that only seems to thrive against bad lines. Wrong.
David: Lions. Knocking off a top team, even at home, will give them a little bit of an edge come playoff time. Somewhere, Wayne Fontes weeps for joy. Wrong.
John: Lions. This is a gut feeling game, and a test to see exactly how many levels below the Dallas and the other upper echelon teams the Giants really are. The answer turns out to be disappointing. Wrong.
Zach: Giants. I'm playing the "never been there" card with the Lions, at least the Giants are used to looking like a good team before collapsing. Right.
Texans -1 vs. Saints
Ben: Saints. Flip a coin. Wrong.
David: Texans. I feel like the Saints won’t have answers for the Texans’ defense. They’ll be able to contain Reggie Bush with minimal concessions to the passing game. Right.
John: Saints. The Saints aren’t what they were last year (as evidenced by losing to the Rams last week) but they are still loads better than Houston. Wrong.
Zach: Texans. The Saints are bad. Reggie Bush isn't a good NFL player. But hey, at least everything in New Orleans is back to normal, right? Right.
Packers -9.5 vs. Panthers
Ben: Packers. Arguably the best team in the NFC goes up against Vinny Testeverde. I've seen how this story ends before- it is not pretty for Vinny and Co. Right.
David: Packers. Not even close. This has three-touchdown-lead potential. Right.
John: Packers. The Panthers quarterbackless offense gets dominated by Green Bay D, which might be the best in the NFC. Right.
Zach: Packers. That Cowboys-Packers match-up in two weeks looks pretty darn good, doesn't it. Right.
Jets +9.5 vs. Steelers
Ben: Steelers. I'm riding the Kellen Clemens bandwagon. I love mobile quarterbacks so after rushing for 48 yards in his first start, Clemens has won my affections. Plus since he's white, there's none of the "Ben only likes him because he's a black QB". Too bad Clemens has many of the same flaws Chad Pennington does; he can't tackle, rush the passer, stop the run, or defend the pass. Wrong.
David: Steelers. The third best team in the game will wallop one of the bottom feeders. Wrong.
John: Jets. The Jets have played a lot of teams close this season, and the Steelers might let down after the barn-burner to Cleveland last week. Right.
Zach: Jets. This Pittsburgh team has a tendency to let down against the weakest teams on their schedule. Right.
Cowboys -10.5 vs. Redskins
Ben: Cowboys. Dallas showed they're one of two teams at the head of the NFC class last week against the Giants. The Skins are inconsistent at best with an offense that seems to be lacking in guys who can catch the football. Much like fantasy football, you don't spend big bucks on WR. But hey, at least Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd are set for life. Wrong.
David: Cowboys. Rivalry game. Washington’s been unpredictable to my mind, so I’m taking the NFC’s best team at home. Wrong.
John: Redskins. The Cowboys are going to lose a game they shouldn’t eventually. This is a potential let down after two huge division wins on the road. Historically these franchises play close games. Right.
Zach: Cowboys. Too much talent on offense for the Redskins to keep up. Wrong.
49ers +3 vs. Rams
Ben: Rams. Wins are for teams that are in the playoff hunt. The Niners are not, so I have little inhibition in saying they are the worst team in football and their wins don't mean a damn thing to me. Right.
David: 49ers. Ugly. Ugly. Game. Can we institute XFL rules just this once? Let hilarity ensue! Wrong.
John: Rams. A little second half run by the Rams make their season look not as sucky as first expected. Right.
Zach: Rams. Do. Not. Watch. Right.
Seahawks -5.5 vs. Bears
Ben: Seahawks. People need to realize there are approximately 4 teams in the NFL worse than the Bears. The Seahawks are not one of them. Right.
David: Seahawks. The Bears’s freefall continues in a tough road game. Kyle Orton sighting? Right.
John: Bears. All aboard the Rex express! If they are to make a playoff run it must start now. The Seahawks dominated an awful team last week, and I’m still not impressed. Wrong.
Zach: Seahawks. This team, as they currently stand, is the third best in the NFC. Right.
Bills +16 vs. Patriots
Ben: Patriots. The Pats are going to win the Super Bowl. I've accepted it, remembered that I predicted it at the start of the year, and am moving on. Right.
David: Patriots. I’m never picking against them again this season. Right.
John: Bills. The Pats can’t beat everyone by 20 can they? Wrong.
Zach: Patriots. After a one-week hiatus, the Patriots are back, carrying my picks. Right.
Broncos -2 vs. Titans
Ben: Titans. Albert Haynesworth might not be there to stop the Broncos rushing attack, but who on Denver is going to stop Tennessee's decent one? Wrong.
David: Titans. Tennessee will give Denver the early-2000s Broncos treatment. Denver can’t stop the run game led by a decent line and (shockingly) competent LenDale White. Vince Young won’t hurt, either. Wrong.
John: Titans. I hate picking against Denver at home and at night, but the Titans can play with anyone and tend to win close games. The Broncos just aren’t that good of a football team to me. Wrong.
Zach: Broncos. And please let this be the last time we see them on national television until they're actually good. Right.
Last Week
Ben: 6-7-1
David: 4-9-1
John: 7-6-1
Zach: 6-7-1
Season Standings
Zach: 91-58-11
David: 80-69-11
Ben: 73-76-11
John: 64-85-11
So about that Colts-Pats game last week. Nice to see it live up to the hype, though it obviously wasn't as high scoring as most people expected. Now, clearly both teams are at the head of the class in the NFL, but this week delivers a very interesting game in the NFC, as the Cowboys head to New York to take on the Giants. New York has won six straight, but most of those victories have come over the worst few teams in the league. The G-Men lost a shootout in Big D earlier this year, and they may very well struggle to contain the explosive Dallas offense again today. Meanwhile, the Titans-Jaguars game may be ugly, but it's pivotal for both teams' playoff chances, as the Jaguars are trying to keep things on course until David Gerrard returns while the Titans are hoping to finally see some growth out of Vince Young. In any case, it should be another interesting week in the NFL.
In the picks department, the crew did another good job last week, with everyone finishing over .500 for the second straight week. Ben continues his Abraham Nunez-like Assault on .500, while David is hot on my heels for the overall lead. And at least John still sends in his picks every week.
As always, picks are against the spread and home teams are bolded.
This Week
Ben: 6-7-1
David: 4-9-1
John: 7-6-1
Zach: 6-7-1
Titans -4.5 vs. Jaguars
Ben: Jaguars. No Albert Haynesworth means Ben is changing his pick. Right.
David: Titans. I don’t know what to think about how these teams match up, so I throw my hands in the air and say take the home team. Wrong.
John: Jaguars. I still don’t buy into Tennessee – I know probably not a smart idea. I like the Jaguars defense to keep this close enough for the cover. Right.
Zach: Jaguars. I was all set to pick the Titans until I saw that Albert Haynesworth is out for the game. Meanwhile, Vince Young is example 126,714 of what can happen when a young athlete is lauded too quickly: yes, the team had a good year last year, but Young wasn't nearly as instrumental in that as the MSM would have you believe. This year, his lack of accuracy and weird motion have turned the Titans passing game into a travesty. While the defense has been stellar, they need Young to grow up, and quick, if they want to make a bit of noise this year. Right.
Chiefs -3 vs. Broncos
Ben: Chiefs. Two teams that are similar in DVOA, but not similar in the standings. No Larry Johnson hurts the Chiefs, but if Kolby Smith is anything he'll probably run wild on Denver's awful front seven. The QB situation for both teams is a mess with Jay Cutler playing with an injury and Damon Huard on a short leash. I'll take the home team. Wrong.
David: Chiefs. Oh, how far we’ve come. Early on, we thought KC would challenge for a top three draft pick. Now, we’re wondering where they’ll go to get creamed in the first round of the playoffs. Has Mike Shanahan used up all his political capital, yet? Wrong.
John: Chiefs. This might be the worst Broncos team I’ve ever seen. Wrong.
Zach: Chiefs. For years, my Seahawks suffered at the hands of the Broncos (also the Chiefs and Raiders, and occasionally the Chargers. They weren't very good most of my life), so it pleases me to see the Ponies in a downward spiral. Hopefully the ensuing crash will wipe out the entire division. Wrong.
Dolphins +3 vs. Bills
Ben: Bills. This is a problem. I'm only at week 10 and am out of creative ways to say the Dolphins suck. Push.
David: Bills. The bad news is the Dolphins have too many needs to become competitive with one good draft, and their coach has already proven seriously incompetent in the player evaluation component of the job, valuing loyalty and personal favors over talent. The good news is— Yeah. Push.
John: Dolphins. Traditionally, Miami beats Buffalo at home. Push.
Zach: Bills. Hey, at least they still have that Will Smith song. Push.
Steelers -10 vs. Browns
Ben: Steelers. The Browns more recent success would lead me to want to take them with this big a line, but they're on the road and facing a far better team than any they've beaten. Cleveland is a great story, but the Steelers are the third best team in the NFL. Wrong.
David: Steelers. Pittsburgh will step on Cleveland’s throat. They’re an equally potent offense, and a much better defense. Take the over, but the Steelers are clicking on offense, and they will win by at least two TDs. Wrong.
John: Browns. I know Pitt is playing well, but so is Cleveland. In the very least you’ll get a backdoor cover. Right.
Zach: Steelers. While the Steelers probably don't scare the Patriots, I think they could give Indy a lot of trouble if they meet up in the playoffs. Boy, those AFC playoffs are going to be something to watch if everything breaks right. Wrong.
Saints -13 vs. Rams
Ben: Saints. I will not pick the Rams this season, no matter how big the line gets. Wrong.
David: Saints. I could repeat my comment from last week. New Orleans is vastly improved from the beginning of the season. I can’t figure out exactly what it is, because Reggie Bush still leaves a lot to be desired as a pure running back. Maybe they changed something with the offensive line. Wrong.
John: Saints. New Orleans is rolling and the Rams play no defense. Their offensive line is also decimated. Wrong.
Zach: Saints. More schadenfreude: The Rams going 0-16 would make just about anything that happens with the Seahawks this year tolerable. Wrong.
Panthers -4 vs. Falcons
Ben: Panthers. Neither team is all that good but I think Joey Harrington stinks far more. Interesting note; I had a choice of going to see this game or the Charlotte Bobcats game. I chose the Bobcats. That's how highly I think of these two teams. Wrong.
David: Panthers. Both teams are a mess, and I realize this means I’m picking Vinny, but I’m slowly coming around to the point of view that Bobby Petrino is in over his head. Yeah, big mess. Wrong.
John: Falcons. Roll the dice on this one. Right.
Zach: Falcons. I pity everyone in the South. Not just because they have to watch this game, but that's a big part of it. Right.
Redskins -2.5 vs. Eagles
Ben: Eagles. Using Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings as a tool for making my picks has sparked me to 19 wins in two weeks. Now here's the problem; do I trust DVOA here, that says the Eagles are playing better than the Skins, even though it always seems to overrate the Eagles? I'll take my chances with it, believing the Eagles usually improve as the season goes along. Right.
David: Redskins. Bad luck for the Iggles, as I can’t see them winning on the road against a team that has shown they can be dominant when they try. Wrong.
John: Redskins. The Eagles just got romped and aren’t playing well. In this NFC East rivalry, go with the home team. Wrong.
Zach: Redskins. The Eagles are on life support, and the Redskins are the greedy children who want their inheritance now. Wrong.
Packers -6 vs. Vikings
Ben: Packers. Insert Minnesota bad QB joke here. Right.
David: Packers. Make it a lock: Purple Jesus will be kept under 200 yards. If the Pack can do that, they’ll force whichever crappy QB the Vikes have out there to beat them. Good times. Right.
John: Packers. A one dimensional Vikings team won’t score on this good Pack D. Look for a monster game out of Brett Favre. Right.
Zach: Packers. Yea, the Purple Jesus hath come, but hath not the strength to oppose the Cheese-sus. That's Brett Favre, dontcha know. Right.
Ravens -3.5 vs. Bengals
Ben: Bengals. Honestly, I'm surprised by this line. The Bengals are not good but the Ravens, despite their record, are a worse team. Plus they have no secondary and if there is one thing Cinci does well, it's throw. Also of note; how can Chad Johnson be hospitalized one week and play the next? Terrible job by the NFL there. Right.
David: Bengals. The Ravens are in disarray. Bring on the Troy Smith era! Hire Mike Singletary as head coach! Right.
John: Bengals. It’s the battle of “no offense” against “no defense”. In this case I’ll take “no defense”. Right.
Zach: Ravens. Yeah, the Ravens looked bad on Monday night, but that game was fluky in a lot of ways. Baltimore is bad, but so are the Bengals, who just went into Buffalo and got handled by an inferior Bills team. Wrong.
Raiders +3.5 vs. Bears
Ben: Raiders. Rex Grossman might see action in this one. Rex Grossman! Plus, even if it's Brian Griese the whole way, the Bears are just plain terrible. Wrong.
David: Bears. Don’t watch. Your sanity is precious. Right.
John: Bears. Oakland is playing real poorly and I think the Bears have a big second half of the season. Right.
Zach: Bears. Not many people talk about it, but Robert Gallery is turning out to be a pretty damn big bust. Which is too bad, because he played an intergalactic pirate in those early NFL Network ads. I'm not sure what that means, exactly, but it was damn funny. Right.
Giants +1.5 vs. Cowboys
Ben: Cowboys. This game has the hype machine behind it, but I am not convinced. The Giants defense is completely reliant on a pass rush which does not show up against teams with decent offensive lines. Dallas has that. I think the Cowboys end up winning this one by two scores. Right.
David: Giants. At home, I think the Jints will pull it out. Eli won’t be the reason, of course. Brandon Jacobs gained more yards on the ground in the month of October than anyone else, and watching Big Blue’s defensive line work is one of life’s little pleasures. Wrong.
John: Cowboys. In the end, this game will come down to which quarterback plays better. In other words advantage Romo. Also – Lawrence Tynes is due to lose a game for Big Blue sooner or later. Right.
Zach: Cowboys. The Giants are a good team, but the Cowboys are a great one. Right.
Cardinals -1.5 vs. Lions
Ben: Lions. In the battle of God's chosen quarterbacks, Jon Kitna looks like the favored son while Robo-Waner looks rusted out. Wrong.
David: Lions. Mike Martz is running the ball a little more now that he’s got Kevin Jones at his disposal. We are through the looking glass, people. Wrong.
John: Lions. I don’t get this spread at all. The Cards over the Lions? Wrong.
Zach: Lions. Another Cardinals loss and it looks even more likely that the Seahawks could win the division at 7-9. Wrong.
Chargers +3.5 vs. Colts
Ben: Colts. The Colts are the second best team in the NFL. The Chargers are the most inconsistent team in the NFL. The Colts handled a better 3-4 attack last week, I'll take them here. Wrong.
David: Colts. The second best team in the game will crush the Bolts. This is a prove-it game for Indy, and San Diego’s coaching staff is woefully overmatched. Wrong.
John: Colts. Indy rebounds big time. The Chargers "resurgence" was a fraud, taking advantage of bad teams. Wrong.
Zach: Colts. Shouldn't even be close. Wrong.
Seahawks -10 vs. 49ers
Ben: Seahawks. In the last five years, Football Outsiders' worst DVOA's are: -56.6%, -50.4%, and -46.1%. The teams owning those marks? 1st- the 2005 Niners. 3rd- the 2004 Niners. And finally in second this year's incarnation of the Niners. If the Patriots are building a dynasty that might be the greatest ever, the Niners are building the anti-dynasty- possibly the worst collection of football teams anyone has ever produced over a five year period. In case you were wondering, the 2006 Niners had a -20.6% DVOA. Like I said, anti-dynasty. Right.
David: Seahawks. This will get ugly quickly. Who the hell approved this game for Monday night? Right.
John: 49ers. The Seahawks shouldn’t be giving this many points against anyone. Wrong.
Zach: Seahawks. Please, please, please let last week be the last time Shaun Alexander starts for this franchise. Look, I appreciate everything he did from 2000-2005, but he's beyond washed-up at this point. Once his one skill (running) went, he didn't even have any of the ancillary RB skills (pass catching, blocking) to fall back on. Mo Morris isn't the long-term answer, but he's a far better option for the team right now, and could give them a year or two to find the next guy. Right.
Last Week
Ben: 10-3-1
David: 11-2-1
John: 7-6-1
Zach: 8-5-1
Season Standings
Zach: 78-56-10
David: 73-61-10
Ben: 64-70-9
John: 55-79-10
Well, things in the NFC appear to be clearing up a bit. There's the top tier of teams who should be considered legitimate Super Bowl contenders, a massive middle ground of teams who hope to be playoff-bound, and then a few teams who are already thinking about the draft.
This Season Matters
Right now, Dallas, Green Bay, and New York look like the three teams with real Super Bowl hopes. Dallas has been the best of the three, with their only loss coming to the Patriots. Green Bay is one fluky loss against Chicago from being undefeated, and the Giants have overcome a slow start to move to 6-2.
Let's look at each team more closely. Dallas has been close to a model football team, and if it weren't for the exploits of the Colts and Patriots they'd be looking like the clear favorites in the NFL. They do just about everything well; they run the ball (4th in DVOA), pass the ball (3rd), stop the run (6th), and stop the pass (6th). The special teams have been average, but far from a weakness. If they'd turn the running game over to Marion Barber III on a more permanent basis, they'd be even better positioned. The team is stacked with talent at the skill positions, from Barber (1st among running backs in DVOA) to quarterback Tony Romo (5th in DPAR) to wideout Terrell Owens (3rd in DPAR) and tight end Jason Witten (2nd in DPAR). Defensively, the secondary has improved enough to turn the entire unit into one of the best in the league.
If Dallas doesn't win the NFC, it's because Green Bay does. Seriously, while a Pats-Colts rematch in the AFC Championship would get most of the attention, a Dallas-Green Bay matchup would certainly generate plenty of interest in its own right. Brett Favre remains the best-known Packer, and he's having a very nice season (6th in DPAR), but he's no longer the best player on the team. That distinction belongs to All-World defensive end Aaron Kampman, who powers one of the best defensive lines in football. His presence allows the Pack to generate a pass rush with just four players, which helps out the secondary. Al Harris and Charles Woodson are a very good corner duo, but the safeties and nickel backs are a weakness, which explains how Green Bay is 31st against 3rd/4th wide receivers. There's been much written about the lack of a run game, but the run has been effective when used, they've just rarely run the ball. Injuries and uncertainty at running back have played a part in that, as has the passing game's effectiveness. On a neutral field, Dallas is probably the favorite, but Green Bay has the easier remaining schedule, and at Lambeau they might be a large obstacle for the 'Boys.
Deception
Both Detroit and New York are 6-2, and seemingly deserve to be included in the above group. However, both have serious questions that need to be answered before I at least start talking about them as legit Super Bowl teams. New York needs to beat a good team, as their last four wins have come over the Jets, Falcons, 49ers, and Dolphins (combined record 5-27). The running game looks very good, and the front four generates lots of pressure against weaker offensive lines, but Eli Manning is still his usual erratic self and the rest of the defense isn't that good.
Detroit is more intriguing: there's plenty of talent on the offense, and the defensive line has the potential to dominate, like they did against the Broncos this week. However, the offensive line is terrible, and Jon Kitna gets hit way too often. Plus, they're the Lions.
Miasma
Washington, Tampa Bay, Seattle, New Orleans, Carolina, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Arizona, and Chicago are all still clinging to playoff hopes, but none look like more than early-round fodder. The Saints have played the best of late, and it's possible they could emerge as more of a contender. The offense has found its stride, and the defense has improved over last year. Meanwhile, the Redskins are dealing with the growing pains that a young quarterback invariably goes through, Tampa Bay will have to fend off the hard-charging Saints, Seattle doesn't have the talent to make up for Mike Holmgren's god-awful coaching, Carolina is a disgrace, Philly has dug themselves to deep of a hole, Minnesota can't pass or stop the pass, which is too bad because the Purple Jesus is pretty damn amazing, and so is their run defense, Arizona is starting to see the bad Kurt Warner, and Chicago has no offense and a declining defense.
The Terrible
Atlanta is bad at just about everything, the 49ers might be the worst team in the league, and the Rams won't win a game.
See also: NFC Report, NFLLast week was a good one for the crew, with everyone over .500. Ben posted the best record for the week, which hasn't happened too often the last two seasons, so let's let him enjoy it. Ok, that's long enough.
As always, picks are against the spread and home teams are bolded.
This Week
Ben: 10-3-1
David: 11-2-1
John: 7-6-1
Zach: 8-5-1
Bills +1 vs. Bengals
Ben: Bengals. The Bills offense mustered 13 points on the Jets defense and were lucky to put that up. Bad sign. So even at home against the most wasted talent in the league, I can't take them. Wrong.
David: Bills. Buffalo is surprisingly frisky at home. The defense is not embarrassing, and the offense is shockingly competent. Dick Jauron, we hardly knew ye. By the way, who you got in the Pats-Colts game? Right.
John: Bengals. Has Cincy fallen so far that they are barely favored against the Bills? Wrong.
Zach: Bills. Cincinnati is bad. The Bills aren't all that good, but they're getting points at home, and I'm hoping for another big week from Lee Evans. Right.
Lions -3 vs. Bronocs
Ben: Lions. DVOA says the Broncos are slightly better than Lions. But at home and the Broncos looking lost on defense, I'm taking Detroit. Right.
David: Lions. God bless Jon Kitna, his inappropriate Halloween costumes, and his ability to execute Mike Martz’s offense. Gentlemen, if you don’t score fifty points, we’ll withhold your paychecks for the next month. By the way, who you got in the Pats-Colts game? Right.
John: Lions. This team is going to have the best WR combo for the next 10 years. Heck, they’ve made Jon Kitna look like a superstar. Right.
Zach: Lions. Compared to Jon Kitna, my Halloween costume sucked. And I thought born-again Christians had no sense of humor. Right.
Titans -4 vs. Panthers
Ben: Titans. Carolina is the worst team with a winning record in the NFL. Thanks to that and the names on the jerseys this line is under a TD. Thank you, come again! Right.
David: Titans. The Panthers suck. I don’t know how else to put it. Accept it, people. There is no magic Panther juice. By the way, who you got in the Pats-Colts game? Right.
John: Titans. Look at the Panthers QB. There’s nothing else you need to know, home and road records be damned. Right.
Zach: Titans. Maybe this is the game where Vince Young actually plays well. It has to happen eventually, right? Right? Right.
Chiefs -2 vs. Packers
Ben: Packers. Packers are a better team but two things are scary here. One, Arrowhead Stadium ain't easy to play in. Second, the Chiefs actually have a good defense, which means this could be one of those Brett Favre four pick performances which allows a very bad offense to score more points than it should. I'll take the better team anyway. Right.
David: Packers. Kansas City in November and beyond can be extremely cold. That’s not a problem for the Packers. They’re also simply the better team. By the way, who you got in the Pats-Colts game? Right.
John: Packers. When did KC become a very good football team in people’s eyes? I know they’re good at home, but the Pack are more balanced. They can play offense and defense. The Chiefs can’t. Right.
Zach: Packers. Arrowhead doesn't scare me. Right.
Vikings +7 vs. Chargers
Ben: Chargers. I wanted to take the Vikings, but a look at the DVOA says I shouldn't. That and the Bolts passing game is rounding into form. The weakness of the Vikings? Their pass defense. Oh and their QB. Wrong.
David: Chargers. I’ve been talking to a girl I like a lot. Never met her in person, but I get a great feeling from our phone conversations. Of course, until I meet her and actually get to know her, there’s always that weird unknowingness hanging over our communications. It’s a lot like how I feel about the Chargers. On many levels, they just look like a great team, but the Norv factor hangs over everything. By the way, who you got in the Pats-Colts game? Wrong.
John: Chargers. San Diego seems to be back, and they have a defense more than good enough to completely shut down a one dimensional Viking offensive attack. Wrong.
Zach: Chargers. Let's go team schizophrenia! Wrong.
Falcons -3 vs. 49ers
Ben: Falcons. According to Football Outsiders the Falcons are one of the worst teams in DVOA in the NFL this year. However the difference between them at – 25.6% and the Niners at -50% is almost the same as the difference between the Dirty Birds and the Browns. The Browns are 15th in the league. What does this show? Not all bad is created equal. Also, the Niners are freaking disaster that, if not for a pair of tremendously lucky wins the first two weeks, would be a near lock to go winless. Right.
David: Falcons. Both teams suck. Go with the home team. By the way, who you got in the Pats-Colts game? Right.
John: 49ers. This game sucks. Flip a coin. Wrong.
Zach: Falcons. Because of the two wins, no one realizes that the 49ers are as bad as the Rams, and worse than the Dolphins. No way I'm picking them on the road, or ever. Right.
Saints -3 vs. Jaguars
Ben: Jaguars. The Jags GETTING points? Really? I know David Garrard has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but I also highly doubt Vegas knows that. The Saints kicking the dregs of the league does not constitute a resurgence. Wrong.
David: Saints. They’re not the same team they were early in the season. Then again, neither are they the same team they were last year, so I take pause. By the way, who you got in the Pats-Colts game? Right.
John: Jaguars. I know they don’t have a QB but I think the Saints resurgence has been a little smoke and mirrors. The Jaguars will run it right down their throat and disrupt Drew Brees. Wrong.
Zach: Jaguars. The Saints appear to be moving in the right direction, but getting points to pick the better team seems like the wise move. Wrong.
Jets +3 vs. Redskins
Ben: Redskins. Chad Pennington is to the bench, which means likely absolutely nothing to the Jets overall chances of winning. Why? Because Chad doesn't play defensive end, middle linebacker or cornerback. The worst defense in the league belongs to the Jets, and unless Kellen Clemens is now calling plays on defense, a quarterback change is window dressing on a disastrous season. Push.
David: Redskins. Rookie QB against a Gregg Williams defense? Thanks, Eric, for making my pick for me. By the way, who you got in the Pats-Colts game? Push.
John: Redskins. A good defense will be out for blood after getting demolished by the Pats last week, They will dominate a rookie QB. Plus the Jets can’t get out of their own way right now. The spread worries me but I’ll take my chances. Push.
Zach: Redskins. Can't see the Jets winning. Push.
Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Cardinals
Ben: Buccaneers. I was tempted to take the Cardinals since they have looked better as of late. Then I realized that saying that means they're due to become the Cardinals again. So Bucs it is. Right.
David: Buccaneers. Raymond James Stadium hosted a South Florida loss yesterday. I don’t believe in curses. By the way, who you got in the Pats-Colts game? Right.
John: Cardinals. The Cards defense will keep this a FG game either way. The Bucs win a lot of tight games so take the points. Wrong.
Zach: Buccaneers. But watch out for Robo-Warner. Right.
Browns -1 vs. Seahawks
Ben: Browns. DVOA says the Seahawks should take this one, but for some reason, I don't buy that number. Could be all the times Zach has complained about how washed up Shaun Alexander looks. Or maybe I've bought into the Derek Anderson hype machine. By the way, Wiggles returns to Cleveland. Somehow, I doubt that will get much hype around there. Right.
David: Browns. Cleveland’s offense can exploit Seattle’s defensive weaknesses, because the Browns can play with anyone on that side of the ball. By the way, who you got in the Pats-Colts game? Right.
John: Browns. Something is just wrong with the Seahawks this year. The Browns are historically real good at home, and Seattle bad on the road. Even so, this game can go either way. Right.
Zach: Seahawks. With DJ Hackett and possibly Deion Branch back, this is a far more dynamic offense. I mean, do you think Matt Hasselbeck liked throwing to Ben Obamanu and Courtney Taylor? Wrong.
Colts +5.5 vs. Patriots
Ben: Colts. I liked the Patriots by two in my preview, so I have to take the Colts since they're getting more than a field goal. Right.
David: Patriots. To me, this game is a pick ‘em. But I’m picking the Pats because they’re destroying everyone in sight. Make Indy try to win a shootout, and the Pats would be in great shape. Wrong.
John: Colts. Is this pick with my heart a little bit? Yes. Even so, the Colts are a very good team and this game should be close. An interesting dynamic, the Colts are now more like the Patriots from a couple years ago, and the Pats more like the Colts. Should we really wonder why the Colts have won the last three? Right.
Zach: Patriots. Best. Team. Ever. Wrong.
Raiders -3 vs. Texans
Ben: Texans. The Raiders are only the 4th worst team in the NFL. Lane Kiffin really is a rising star! Right.
David: Texans. Screw the Raiders. I don’t even want to think about them. Worse, they didn’t sell out their game, so fans in the Bay Area will have to watch Patriots-Colts. Damn them. By the way, who you got in the Pats-Colts game? Right.
John: Raiders. The Texans are becoming a bad football team again. It continues. Right.
Zach: Raiders. I'm picking against Kubiak out of spite. Wrong.
Eagles +3 vs. Cowboys
Ben: Cowboys. Why is this game the Sunday night game this week? Didn't people expect Colts/Pats to be something? Anyway, Eagles lose because of two words: pass rush. Right.
David: Cowboys. Damn Eagles being so good and not having their record reflect it. I hardly care about this game. You know why? Pats-Colts is tomorrow. By the way, who you got in that game? Right.
John: Cowboys. The Eagles just aren’t as good a team this year, mostly because of their defense. It just isn’t the same. Throw on top of that Mcnabb’s inability to scramble like he used to in front of a banged up line, go with Dallas. Right.
Zach: Cowboys. I'm leery of an Eagles team that has their backs to the wall, but this Cowboys team is too good to pick against with that small of a spread. Right.
Steelers -7.5 vs. Ravens
Ben: Steelers. Baltimore is the AFC version of Carolina. Unfortunately the odds makers are wising up to this as evidenced by the line this week. I'm taking the Steelers anyways. Right.
David: Steelers. One of the best teams in the league, at home, will run away with it. By the way, who you got in the Pats-Colts game? Right.
John: Steelers. It seems that for two good defensive teams, this is WAY too big a spread. But Baltimore still isn’t completely healthy and their defense is down. So is their offense. Take Pitt at home. Right.
Zach: Steelers. I liked Pittsburgh before I heard that Baltimore was without their top two corners. Now, I like them all the more. Right
Last Week
Ben: 9-4
David: 7-6
John: 8-5
Zach: 8-5
Season Standings
Zach: 72-49-9
David: 69-52-9
Ben: 58-63-9
John: 48-73-9
Ok, so apparently the whole "Simpsons quotes" thing didn't work out so well, as I posted my first losing record of the season. And they were such good quotes! Anyhow, John is in London with the Giants this week (lucky bastard), so you'll have to make do with just picks, no commentary from him, which is too bad, because I'd love to see him explain how he picked both 0-7 teams this week.
As always, picks are against the spread and home teams are bolded.
This Week
Ben: 9-4
David: 7-6
John: 8-5
Zach: 8-5
Rams +3 vs. Browns
Ben: Browns. 0-16! 0-16! 0-16!!! Right.
David: Browns. Derek Anderson is the best QB the Browns have had since Vinny Testaverde in 1995. That’s only as of now. If he plays out the rest of this season like he has, you can make the argument he’s the best quarterback Cleveland’s had since the halcyon days of Bernie Kosar. Right.
John: Rams. Wrong.
Zach: Browns. Add Scott Linehan's name to the long list of "good coordinators who should never have become head coaches." Yes, they've had injury problems, but I've seen corpses who show more emotion than St. Louis. Right.
Bears -5 vs. Lions
Ben: Lions. Football Outsiders have the Lions as having a better DVOA than the Bears. Even if that may not mean the Lions are better, it shows the Bears are getting too many points in this game. Right.
David: Lions. Bri-an Grie-se! Clap-Clap ClapClapClap! Bri-an Grie-se! Clap-Clap ClapClapClap! Right.
John: Lions. Right.
Zach: Bears. Clearly, this isn't the week for loving Jesus (just look at the World Series). Wrong.
Giants -9.5 vs. Dolphins (no home team, since the game is in freaking London)
Ben: Giants. 0-16! 0-16! 0-16!!!! Wrong.
David: Giants. Eli Manning’s end is nigh. The day is coming when an otherwise solid New York Giants team loses a playoff game due to Eli’s ineptitude. I’m thinking that after this season the team says, “Screw it. We’re getting a better quarterback and going for it all while we still have Strahan and Osi.” Not Pennington. The Iggles won’t trade McNabb. Ladies and gentlemen, now wearing blue, Byron Leftwich! Wrong.
John: Dolphins. Right.
Zach: Giants. I wonder if Ben would be rooting for 0-16 if it were the Jets in the position? Wrong.
Panthers +6 vs. Colts
Ben: Colts. The Colts and Patriots are neck and neck in FO's DVOA this year. If this were the Pats favored by six, would you jump on them? Of course you would. Besides the Panthers are overrated and have Vinny Testaverde starting at QB. Right.
David: Colts. John Fox’s seat will be a little warmer. Kris Jenkins will prove, yet again, that he just doesn’t give a damn anymore. Right.
John: Colts. Right.
Zach: Colts. Sure, the Panthers are 4-2. Well, 4-3 now. Right.
Bengals +3.5 vs. Steelers
Ben: Steelers. DVOA would suggest this is the near lock of the week. The Steelers have been one of the best teams in the league this year. The Bengals have been at best mediocre. I think this game will be close, but I'll still take the Steelers. Right.
David: Bengals. I love the Steelers. They’re a very good team. They can do a lot of things well. But I can’t pick them on the road against a frustrated Bengals team with a lot to prove. The Cinci offense can still break anyone, and I expect them to do just that to Pittsburgh. Wrong.
John: Steelers. Right.
Zach: Steelers. Last time they went west and lost a close game, they throttled a mediocre team the next week. I expect it to happen again. Right.
Vikings +1 vs. Eagles
Ben: Eagles. DVOA always loves the Eagles even though they never seem to play up to their high marks. Good thing the birdies are facing a team with Kelly Holcomb at QB. Also, the fact they love to throw bodes well against one of the most unbalanced defensive units in the league. Right.
David: Vikings. Don’t you want to punch the guy who picked Adrian Peterson in the second round of your fantasy draft? Wrong.
John: Eagles. Right.
Zach: Eagles. Sigh, like Ben I'm a sucker for a sexy DVOA. Right.
Titans -7.5 vs. Raiders
Ben: Titans. Since I'm basically using FO entirely to make my picks, I'm going against the grain here. I wouldn't take the Titans in this spot, but the Raiders are one of three worst DVOA teams in the league. The Titans just miss on being in the top five. Add in the road game and I'll take Tennessee. Wrong.
David: Titans. The Raiders have sunk so low as a franchise that they’re essentially an afterthought on the NFL scale of things. They’re lower on the NFL scale than Sunderland is in the Premiership. (This soccer joke brought to you by the good people of northeast England! As long as we’re playing gridiron games there, we might as well acknowledge them). Wrong.
John: Raiders. Right.
Zach: Titans. Road dog I can't imagine winning? Not going near that one. Wrong.
Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Jaguars
Ben: Jaguars. I'm going against DVOA here. The Jaguars defense is killer against teams that don't throw the ball deep. Jeff Garcia does not. So Quinn Gray and all, I'm taking the Jags. Right.
David: Buccaneers. The Jags are starting a backup QB, and the Bucs are still under the radar as a surprisingly competent team. I’m willing to put my faith in Old Jeff Garcia more than Craptacular Quinn Gray. Wrong.
John: Buccaneers.
Zach: Buccaneers. This game is interesting. People will say that expecting the Jaguars to collapse puts an undue amount of credit on the importance of the quarterback. Which might have been true in past years. But so far this season, David Gerrard has been the best mortal quarterback in the AFC. Losing him hurts the Jags far more than you'd think. Wrong.
Jets -3 vs. Bills
Ben: Bills. I don't know what I can say here that hasn't already been said. Kellen Clemens should be starting because this season is lost. Seriously guys, it's over. 2008 should begin now. Right.
David: Bills. Wait. Trent Edwards is already proficient at running a no-huddle offense? W-T-F, mate? In any event, he’s already better than JP Losman, which isn’t saying much, but it does mean that Marshawn Lynch isn’t alone among the playmakers. Right.
John: Jets. Wrong.
Zach: Bills. I have just one wish for this game. Lee Evens, please score a goddamn touchdown for once in your miserable existence. Right, but I shouldn't have expected Gary Kubiak to be anything other than a complete and total dick. If the guy is probable, he plays. Don't expect him to play? List him as doubtful, or questionable. Jerk..
Chargers -10 vs. Texans
Ben: Texans. Norv Turner is giving up ten points? Norv Turner? Really? Forget it. Give me the Texans. Wrong.
David: Chargers. If Norv Turner screws up this game, one with so many emotional overtones… Wait, what am I saying? Of course, he’ll screw up. He’s Norv Turner! The players are too talented to let him lose this game for them, though. Right.
John: Texans. Wrong.
Zach: Texans. Too many questions about San Diego and their focus for me to give 10. Wrong.
49ers +2.5 vs. Saints
Ben: Saints. I said I wouldn't pick the Niners the rest of the way unless they were playing the Rams and I'm sticking to it. Right.
David: Saints. Alex Smith is on notice. Also, I’m still waiting for the right moment to buy a Frank Gore jersey. Gotta be the red one. The Niners are similar to the Raiders last year: they have gaping holes on offense, but the defense is surprisingly good. Right.
John: Saints. Right.
Zach: Saints. Alex Smith coming back might help a bit, but not nearly enough. Right.
Patriots -16.5 vs. Redskins
Ben: Redskins. The Pats are 3-0 against 3 score lines. However, this is the best team they've faced with a line this big. I'll take the points, figuring no team can average a margin of victory of 3 scores in every game they win. Unless, of course, we're talking West Virginia in college football this year. (True- the Mountaineers have one loss, to USF, and have beaten every other team they've played this year by at least 17 points.) Wrong.
David: Redskins. The Pats are far and away the best team in the league, but this is their trap game. They’ll win, but it won’t be by three scores. Wrong.
John: Redskins. Wrong.
Zach: Patriots. Up until this very moment, I was sure I'd pick the Redskins. I know it's three scores. I know the Redskins are a good team, perhaps the best the Patriots have faced. I know they're due for a down game. But damnit, I'm taking the Patriots anyhow.Right.
Broncos -3 vs. Packers
Ben: Packers. Are the Broncos back? Maybe in the AFC West race. But with questions on offense and defense, I don't trust them against a stout Packers D and a decent offense. Right.
David: Packers. Does anyone else think Jay Cutler looks like a super young and pudgy Curt Schilling? No? I'm crazy? Okay. Right.
John: Packers. Right.
Zach: Packers. How is it that we get back-to-back primetime games in Denver this year, and yet next week's Indy-New England game is just a regular old CBS late game? Seriously, who thought this was a good idea? Right.
Last Week
Ben: 6-8
David: 8-6
John: 5-9
Zach: 6-8
Season Standings
Zach: 64-44-8
David: 58-50-8
Ben: 48-60-8
John: 41-67-8
So instead of looking at each of the team in the NFC this week, I'm going to look at some of the surprising players throughout the conference: both the guys who are exceeding expectations and the guys who are underwhelming.
Quarterback
The Good: Jeff Garcia. I'm going to repeat something from an earlier NFC Report: "I can't believe I'm going to say this sentence, but I guess the Philadelphia fans were right." Last year, Garcia was 10th in the NFL in DVOA, and so far this year he's