http://www.sportszillablog.com/ en Copyright 2008 Thu, 03 Jul 2008 02:36:48 -0500 http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/ http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss This blog has stood abandoned for almost 6 months. During that time, I've almost never even had the urge to write anything. I started blogging in 2004, which seems like a lifetime ago when it comes to the sports blogosphere. Eventually, my own malaise and burnout with sports caught up with me, and I gave the site the heave-ho. Since then, there have been any number of topics that might have been worth writing about. Tonight, I don't even know what to say. Ever since Howard Schultz sold the Supersonics, a part of me knew this day was coming. Even after the city (and then Schultz) filed lawsuits, I could never get really optimistic. There was too much money at stake, and at least the perception of too-little fan interest to make a protracted battle attractive for the city. Still, through it all, I maintained at least a shred of hope that someone would come to their senses. That David Stern, the owners, or someone in the NBA would realize that even if Oklahoma City deserves an NBA franchise, this is the wrong way to do it. That allowing such a blatant act of larceny to receive the NBA's seal of approval would strike someone as wrong (and bad long-term business). That fans en masse would realize that by continuing to ignore it when an owner hijacks a team with the league's consent, it merely ensures that it will happen again and again (maybe even to bring a new team to Seattle). I don't even know what to be most upset about. Is it the loss of Kevin Durant after just one year? That he may turn out to be a Hall of Famer, with his time in Seattle being little more than a curious historical tidbit? The fact that if I choose to raise a family here, I'll never be able to share my love for basketball with my children? Or just the fact that I'll never be able to watch an NBA game again (a league which used to be my favorite) without at least some serious heartache? In the end, tonight at least I'm mourning more for the past then the future. My mom broke her foot jumping up and down when the Sonics won the 1979 NBA Championship. I learned the game of basketball from watching Ricky Pierce, Nate McMillan, and the rest of the early 90s teams. I learned that man was not bound by gravity from watching Shawn Kemp, learned that perhaps the greatest joy in sports was watching your guy utterly humiliate another player by dunking on him, and then gloating about it over their prostrate body. I learned that a man can play Hall of Fame basketball while never shutting up from watching Gary Payton, and I learned that life can give you great heartache (the Nuggets in 1994) and great joy (the Jazz in 1996). All along, I knew that if given my choice, I'd take a Sonics title over any other. I wasn't born the first time it happened, and now it will never happen again. Look, I understand that sports are a business, and that while owners, leagues, and players pay lip service to fans they know that we'll support teams no matter what. For every fan the NBA lost in Seattle today (or over the last few years), they've certainly made themselves plenty in Oklahoma City. And fans of the other 29 teams might feel some sympathy for my cause, but that's not going to keep them from showing up, even when the OKC team comes to town. The vengeful part of me wants the team to fail miserably in Oklahoma City. While I have nothing against the players in particular, I wouldn't exactly shed tears if Kevin Durant lost a leg in a combine accident tomorrow. Furthermore, you'll get no sympathy out of me if the team struggles in Oklahoma, as they're likely to do unless Sam Presti really does know more than just about everyone. The team, and the league, falling flat on their face would perhaps be the final piece of evidence we need to see that the NBA's business model flat out sucks. The Sonics may have just moved, but Memphis, New Orleans, Sacramento, Indiana, Minnesota, Charlotte, Atlanta, and others could easily join them in the not-to-distant future. However, a large part of me is just flat-out done. The anger is there, but tempering it is a pervasive feeling of powerlessness. In the end, my fandom didn't mean dick to the NBA, to Clay Bennett, or even to the City of Seattle. All the times I cursed a bad call, cheered a great play, ran through trades on RealGM, or did any of the other things that make us fans no longer have any meaning. We follow sports because they allow us to, for a time, suppress all the pressing issues of our lives: for 2 1/2 hours, we live and die with our surrogate warriors. Sure, it could be argued that such escapism is wasteful, sophomoric, or even damaging, but in the end sports can bring us a kind of joy that few other things (or so I've been told). While the Mariners or Seahawks may someday win a title, the joy I'll feel at that moment will be tempered by the fact that I know I'm settling for less than my dream. Of course, the NBA might return to Seattle one day, whether by expansion, re-location, or even Howard Schultz's lawsuit. But like a spouse who's been cheated on, nothing will ever be the same. Sure, I might one day care for an NBA team again. I might even get to experience that joy of seeing them win a championship. But nothing is ever as good as your first love, and today that love died. http://www.sportszillablog.com/2008/07/i_dont_even_know.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2008/07/i_dont_even_know.htm Basketball NBA Seattle Supersonics Why Fans are Ultimately Powerless Why Sports are Evil Thu, 03 Jul 2008 02:36:48 -0500 Due to the games and my work schedule, Sportszilla Live will air tomorrow...I'll update with the exact time later. http://www.sportszillablog.com/2008/01/sz_live_postponed_one_day.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2008/01/sz_live_postponed_one_day.htm Football Sportszilla Live Sun, 20 Jan 2008 17:51:14 -0500 What is Mike Holmgren going to do? He's got to be demoralized by once again having his season end in Green Bay against his former team. Holmgren has hinted at retirement a few different times, and it wouldn't shock me to see him walk away. Mike's always been an offensive coach, and the future of Seattle's offense doesn't look all that bright, so he might not have the patience to rebuild that unit over the next few years. While I certainly won't miss his ineptness at managing a clock, his devotion to washed-up veterans, or his questionable play calls, there's no doubt that the Holmgren Era has been the most successful in Seahawk history...five straight playoff berths, four straight division titles, a Super Bowl appearance. What about Shaun Alexander? I've been harping on this for a year-and-a-half, but Alexander is toast. As Bill Simmons would say, he's got the big ol' pitchfork sticking out of his back. The year-long inability to run the ball probably cost the Hawks a win or two, and it certainly prevented them from threating defenses enough to loosen up the pass game. Hopefully, Shaun either retires (highly unlikely) or gets cut (possible). So what moves do the Seahawks make during the offseason? Here are what I see at their biggest needs, both for next year and long term. First and foremost, they need a guard to replace Chris Gray. Gray has always been a stop-gap type guy, and while they could get away with him when he was the weak link on the Jones/Hutchinson/Tobeck lines, his flaws have been repeatedly exposed this year. The Seahawks were terrible at running the ball up the middle, and countless times Gray was unable to block one-on-one in the pass game, even against linebackers. Obviously, the Seahawks have desperately missed Steve Hutchinson the last two years, and drafting a guard in the first few rounds should be a fairly easy choice. Running back will also be an area to look at in the draft, though not necessarily in the first round. Maurice Morris is a decent player, but I don't think he's a legit full-time running back. The third or fourth round would be a good place to take a gamble on a guy with some upside, since you wouldn't necessarily need him to step in and start from day one. A halfway decent tight end would also be nice...Marcus Pollard was clearly not a good fit as a stopgap, and Seattle could really use a guy to stretch the defense and provide some blocking help, instead of guys who can do one or the other. Additionally, the team needs to start thinking about long-term replacements for a few stalwarts, namely QB Matt Hasselbeck and LT Walter Jones. Neither will be easy to replace, but smart teams plan well in advance for such issues. Jones in particular has started to slip (All-Pro honors notwithstanding), so having a young left tackle in place in a season or two would be a big boon to the organization. Defensively, things look a bit more set. The front seven should be set, especially if Marcus Tubbs can stay healthy (big if). The secondary could use some help. Pro Bowl cornerback Marcus Trufant is a free agent, and while I'd expect Seattle to resign him there's no guarantee that they do. In that case, adding a cornerback is a pressing need. Otherwise, finding an upgrade over safety Brian Russell would be a nice move to make. In short, I'd look to spend the first few picks in the draft on some combination of a guard, tight end, running back, and safety. Additionally, if they've got a tackle or quarterback they like as a developmental project, that would probably be a good move. Depending on who they add via the draft and free agency, the Seahawks could be a contender again next year. They've got most of the pieces of a very good defense in place, and sage drafting could forstall a collapse by the offense. But the turmoil of a coaching change coupled with a couple of poor picks, and Seattle could be on the outside looking in for the first time since 2002.]]> http://www.sportszillablog.com/2008/01/dismantled.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2008/01/dismantled.htm Football NFL Seattle Seahawks Sun, 13 Jan 2008 13:17:38 -0500 So the rumors continue to swirl that the Mariners are close to trading for star Orioles pitcher Erik Bedard. It's clear that outfielder Adam Jones will be a centerpiece of the deal, likely along with catcher Jeff Clement, as well as at least one other piece. Seattle GM Bill Bavasi has said that the team considers pitcher Brandon Morrow just about untouchable, meaning that the Orioles are asking for 17-year-old wunderkind Carlos Triunfel instead. Almost regardless of who the third piece of the trade is, this is a bad move for the Mariners which illustrates both the perils of having a GM on a win-or-go-home ultimatum and a flawed understanding of where the Mariners stand in relation to the rest of the American League. Last year's 88-74 season was a tremendous surprise for even the most optimistic Mariner fan (of which I'm not one). Yes, the collapse in late August was painful, but the fact that the team was a legitimate contender up until that point still somewhat boggles the mind. Even with some terrible performances from players like Richie Sexson, Horacio Ramirez, and Jeff Weaver, the team posted it's best record in five years. Heading into the offseason, it was clear that the number one priority was the starting rotation. Of Bavasi's three additions last offseason, only Miguel Batista performed up to expectations. Ramirez was an unmitigated disaster, and while Weaver somewhat bounced back after the worst start in franchise history, he faded mightily down the stretch. With Weaver gone and Ramirez hopefully not a viable option in 2008, the Mariners needed to add starting pitching somehow. Unfortunately, the team didn't have a whole lot of encouraging options in the farm system. Korean righy Cha Seung Baek showed decent stuff at the start of the season, but has a lengthy injury history that rightly makes the team wary of counting on him for 30+ starts. Beyond that, the cupboard is mostly bare, consisting of a young, soft-tossing lefty (Ryan Fieirabend), and older soft-tossing lefty (Robert Raubaugh), and a somewhat young lefty power arm with little starting experience (Ryan Rowland-Smith). There's also Morrow, who I'll get to in a sec. A lack of major-league ready arms meant Bavasi had to look to other organizations to fill out the rotation, which is never a comfortable process. In his desire to remain employed past this year, he chased after Japanese question mark Hiroki Kuroda, but after losing him to the Dodgers he signed average pitcher Carlos Silva to a four-year, $40 million contract. Silva has exceptional command, but doesn't miss bats and will be relying on a defense that was surprisingly porous last year. As the final piece to a rotation, Silva isn't a bad player, but the contract is. While he's almost sure to out-perform Ramirez and Weaver from a year ago, he's also unlikely to make the Mariners much better. Still needing another starter, the M's set their sights on some of the top pitchers in baseball. After finding out that their offers to Minnesota for Johan Santana were not strong enough, Seattle turned their focus to Bedard. While he's not quite Santana, Bedard is arguably the second-best lefty in baseball. He's got fantastic stuff, and his command has progressed nicely. Additionally, he remains under team control for the next two seasons. The downside is that he's going to turn 29 before the season begins and has a somewhat lengthy injury history. If he pitches well the next two years, he's also going to demand a massive contract after the 2009 season. While Bedard would clearly be a massive rotation upgrade, and would perhaps take some of the pressure of phenom Felix Hernandez, I'm not sure he's enough for the Mariners to overtake Los Angeles in the AL West or push for the Wild Card. First, just look at the impact on the starting lineup. Jones has been penciled in as the everyday right fielder, so trading him leaves a rather large hole in the outfield. Internally, the only viable option is 23-year-old outfielder Wladimir Balentin, who had a great season at AAA as he finally started to harness his massive power, but it's unlikely he's nearly as MLB ready as Jones is. This late in the offseason, the free agent options are uninspiring, and whomever the team signs will likely be a down-grade from Jones both offensively and defensively. If the Mariners were just about even with the Angels, it's possible that this move could put them over the top. However, if you see them as being 5+ games worse than LA (as I do), then all trading for Bedard does is narrow the gap at a massive cost to the future of the franchise. Morrow appears certain to be a part of that future, and I don't quite understand why. Yes, he's got a great fastball, and he was consistently able to dominate MLB hitters with it as a reliever last year. Furthermore, his control, which was a huge problem early on, seems to be improving. Still, at this point he's a one-pitch guy, and no matter how good that fastball is it won't be enough as a starter. Morrow's delayed development was part of the trickle-down from the atrocious Rafael Soriano-for-Horacio Ramirez deal last offseason. Soriano's absence left the team without a power-righty set-up arm, so instead of sending Morrow to AAA Tacoma to develop as a starter, he broke camp with the team and spent the entire season on the big league roster. Not only was Ramirez a disaster, but trading away Soriano set back the development of the closest thing the team has to an MLB-ready pitching prospect. No wonder M's fans hate it. Morrow looked good in the Venezuelan Winter League, but it's almost comical to assume that 36 innings there, plus another 30 or so in spring training will suddenly allow him to develop a slider and a change-up that at this point are not MLB-caliber. From scouting reports, it appears that while Morrow posted good numbers in Venezuela, he relied heavily on his fastball instead of working more extensively on the rest of his arsenal. Could Morrow be a good pitcher down the road? Sure, and if the Mariners committed to giving him the time he needs in AAA to hone his pitches it could even happen in the second half of the 2008 season. But does he possess so much potential that he should be labeled untouchable? Only in the mixed-up muddle that is Bill Bavasi's head. Trading prospects is never easy, especially not for an organization that still smarts from the Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb deal. It's sometimes necessary to secure top-shelf talent that can push a contending team over the top. Sadly, that doesn't appear to be the case here. Instead, this is something of a last-ditch effort by a GM in peril to slightly upgrade the 2008 roster at a severe future cost. Of course, from Bavasi's perspective it makes plenty of sense: why worry about 2009 and beyond when only 2008 is assured? If he sticks around past this year, he can start worrying about rebuilding the farm system. But for Mariners fans who are in it for the long haul, and who see Jones, Clement, and others as the first chance to infuse the big league roster with young, cheap talent in a long while, the thought of potentially sacrificing the next few years for this one is unpalatable when it's hard to imagine the team going to the playoffs this year even with Bedard. Yes, Bedard is a great player, and adding great players is always costly. But sometimes, you have to be willing to take the item back out of the cart, no matter how good it is, when the cost is just too much for your budget. For the Mariners, who are thin on top-level, near-MLB talent, Erik Bedard is a luxury they can't quite afford. http://www.sportszillablog.com/2008/01/why_bedard.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2008/01/why_bedard.htm Baseball Bill Bavasi Erik Bedard MLB Seattle Mariners Tue, 08 Jan 2008 12:32:45 -0500 But quarterback David Garrard, not a great runner, found a seam on a convert-or-else fourth-and-2 play and rambled 32 yards to the Steelers 11 with 1:56 left. Garrard led all quarterbacks in DPAR as a rusher Edit Also, FoxSports.com's front page headline (in reference to the Jags game) reads "Home Invasion." Considering what happened to Sean Taylor, and the fact that his team played today, I'm not sure that's the best choice.]]> http://www.sportszillablog.com/2008/01/kudos_jags_boo_ap.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2008/01/kudos_jags_boo_ap.htm Football Hackery Jacksonville Jaguars NFL NFL Playoffs Sun, 06 Jan 2008 00:58:48 -0500 While there have been a few minor transactions, the offseason for the Mariners really got underway with the news that they inked Carlos Silva to a 4-year, $48 million contract. The move was mostly greeted with groans from the blogging community, not so much because Silva doesn't represent an upgrade over last year's back-end of the rotation but because it feels like this is yet another example of Bill Bavasi and company not understanding the baseball marketplace. Silva is an average player, and it seems like the length of the contract and the money are an awful lot to give up for an average pitcher, especially considering that Seattle already has two guys like that (Washburn and Batista) under contract. Silva doesn't miss bats, doesn't walk guys, and get a decent number of ground balls. He gets hit hard by lefties. He's a decent piece, especially for a team that had no real internal options to replace Jeff Weaver and (hopefully) Ho Ramirez, but just because you need a pitcher doesn't mean you have to pay a lot to get a mediocre one. There were plenty of more intriguing options (Bartolo Colon, Mark Prior) who would have cost less, at least in terms of years if not in dollars, and would have had significantly more upside. With all that being said, let's look at where the M's stand. Last year, despite a massive fade in August, they went 88-74, their best finish since 2003. Now, their Pythagorean record would seem to indicate that 88 wins was something of a fluke. Even if you believe that teams with great bullpens (like the Mariners) can consistently out-perform their P-record, it's likely that last year's team was good for about 85 wins. Presumably, a similar performance this year leaves them 5-10 games behind the Angels, and a similar distance behind the eventual wild-card winner. Here's what this year's roster looks like, if the season started today. C: Kenji Johjima 1B: Richie Sexson 2B: Jose Lopez SS: Yuniesky Betancourt 3B: Adrian Beltre LF: Raul Ibanez CF: Ichiro RF: Adam Jones DH: Jose Vidro SP: Felix Hernandez SP: Miguel Batista SP: Jarrod Washburn SP: Carlos Silva SP: ? CL: JJ Putz SU: George Sherrill SU: Sean Green The rest of the bullpen is basically uncertain, but expect it to be a combination of young, cheap, talented arms. The bench at this point is Willie Bloomquist as the utility man, and another bunch of question marks. Mike Morse might make the team as a right-handed pinch hitter, but his use is minimal, because the team has no lefty regulars who might get pinch hit for (since McLaren will never understand that Ibanez can not hit good lefties with any regularity). Furthermore, by trading Ben Broussard the team has no fall-back option if Richie Sexson truly is washed-up. His numbers last year were horrific, but the team believes he can rebound, and will likely give him a couple of months before pulling the plug. If they do, no one really knows what happens. Do they move Ibanez/Vidro to 1B, put the other at DH, and promote Wladimir Balentin to play left field? I doubt it, since Bavasi has said he doesn't want to play two rookie outfielders. Do they move Vidro to 1B and promote catcher of the future Jeff Clement to DH? Maybe, as Clement was fairly impressive in his cup of coffee last year and has a swing tailor-made for Safeco's short right field porch. Do they try and trade for a veteran? Probably, since Bavasi needs to win this year to keep his job. As for the fifth rotation spot, it's anyone's guess who wins it. Brandon Morrow is tearing up the Venezuelan winter league as a starter, so he'll at least have a shot at winning the job in spring training. Other options include Cha Seung Baek (if he can stay healthy), Rule 5 claimee R.A. Dickey and his new knuckleball, AAA lefties Robert Rohrbaugh and Ryan Feierabend, or (shudder) Ramirez, who the team inexplicably tendered a contract to. Now, let's talk about the potential Erik Bedard trade. Obviously Bedard is a great pitcher, and he instantly makes the rotation much better. However, acquiring him would likely cost Jones, Morrow, and at least one more prospect. How does that affect this year's team? Well, there's no other right-field option, especially if Balentin is also a part of the trade. Even is he isn't, I doubt he's ready to be an everyday player. The list of available outfielders isn't all that encouraging, so the hole in right field takes away quite a bit of the gain from adding Bedard. It also removes basically all of the major-league ready (or nearly-ready) talent from the farm system, which might not bother Bavasi but should bother the organization, because honestly they're not that close to catching the Angels. Bedard gets them slightly closer, but without the talent infusion that Jones/Morrow/whomever would theoretically provide over the next few years, it's hard to imagine the team improving much. So what's the upside for this current team? Well, Sexson could rebound. His surface numbers stunk last year, but a large part of that was his horrific .217 BABIP. His walk rate and strikeout rate were both better than 2006, and while his LD% fell it wasn't enough to explain the huge collapse in BABIP. With more neutral luck, he could see a return to being marginally productive. Of course, he's also about to turn 33 and is terrible defensively, so the upside is really him being neutral to slightly productive as opposed to a massive black hole. Jose Lopez could realize his considerable talent and start pulling the ball, but that's more a wish than anything tangible. Jones could step in and be an impact player both offensively (replacing the loss of Jose Guillen) and defensively (making up for Guillen's mediocrity in that area). Pitching-wise, King Felix could finally pitch to his peripherals. The bullpen could continue to be great. It's almost impossible for the 4th-5th starters to be as bad as Weaver and Ramirez were last year (unless, of course, Ramirez is one of them). However, there's plenty of potential downside. Jose Vidro is almost certain to decline from last year's performance. Ibanez and Sexson are both on the down sides of their careers. Johjima could age quickly (he is a catcher, after all). Lopez likely will continue to struggle with the bat. Jones might not be ready for the big leagues after all. Felix could continue to throw predictable fastballs, or even get hurt again. With enough breaks, this could be a playoff team, but more than likely they're the 5th-7th best team in the AL. That's ok if they still have all their young talent, but if they mortgage quite a bit to get Bedard, that's harder to countenance. In short, they appear like what they really are, a team without any sort of concrete plan. They're not a true contender, and they won't be until they develop a few more useful players from within the system, but they're also not about to undergo a rebuilding phase. The best we can hope for is that Bavasi's need to win now doesn't cost us a chance to win more down the road, and that's a depressingly slender thread. http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/12/so_whats_the_plan.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/12/so_whats_the_plan.htm Baseball MLB Seattle Mariners Fri, 21 Dec 2007 12:28:54 -0500 The Utopian Scenario MLB and the player's union agree to a new set of testing protocol, which includes both year-round testing and blood testing. Both parties fund initiatives to prevent PED use in the minor leagues, college game, and high schools. Everyone understands that the PED era was an unfortunate chapter in the game's history, but that no one person or group was to blame. The owners wanted offense, players wanted money, the media wanted stories, and the fans didn't care how the players got big, just that they helped their teams win. The Dystopian Scenario Instead of working together, the owners and players instead get involved in a protacted blame game. The owners claim that players acted without their knowledge, and that owners, coaches, and other team employees can't be held to blame. The players allege that team doctors acted to either provide PEDs or steer players to them, and that they at least tacitly endorsed the PED boom because they got addicted to the surge in offense, and surge in attendance and ratings that followed the 1994 strike. The media and public are more interested in taking down prominent players than in accepting the fact that a large portion of players used PEDs. The Middle Scenario The owners and players adopt a few new testing standards (most likely year-round testing, but no blood tests), and mostly manage to avoid a public squabble about the PED era. The media and the fans get their pound of flesh, but also a better understanding that PED use was rampant in baseball. Obviously, the middle scenario seems to be the most likely one. I think the Mitchell Report will be impetus for at least some change, but ridding the game of PED use is practically impossible. Even with blood testing, their will always be ways for players to avoid detection. Unfortunately, innocence is impossible to regain once it's lost, and that's the reality that we all have to face.]]> http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/12/aftermath.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/12/aftermath.htm Baseball MLB PEDs Fri, 14 Dec 2007 13:45:23 -0500 This Week Ben: 11-4 David: 10-5 John: 11-4 Zach: 11-4 Redskins -3 vs. Bears Ben: Redskins. Right. David: Bears. Wrong. John: Redskins. Right. Zach: Redskins. The theme of this week's picks is: who does this game mean the most to. Tonight's game obviously matters most of all to Joe Gibbs, who choked away last week's game against the Bills. The Bears are a good team, and I think Gibbs is smart enough to keep the ball away from Devin Hester. Right. Lions +10.5 vs. Cowboys Ben: Cowboys. The Boys are kicking ass and taking names. The Lions have remembered who they are. Wrong. David: Cowboys. If not for the Pats, this Cowboys team would be feted at every turn, with rampant comparisons to the '98 Vikings. Wrong. John: Cowboys. I wonder if the people in Detroit have given up on their season yet? They should. This team has packed it in and the boys are looking for payback after a late season loss last year, and Jon Kitna talking some smack afterwards. Wrong. Zach: Lions. This game means the most to: The rest of the NFC. Dallas has looked awesome almost all season, but much like the Patriots have struggled lately I think I see a few too-close wins in store for the Cowboys. After all, something needs to keep the NFC playoffs interesting. Right. Bills -7 vs. Dolphins Ben: Bills. Miami shouldn't be winless. The problem is their close losses are in the past and this current injury ravaged team might be the worst team in the league not named the Niners. After getting trashed at home by the Jets, it's hard to see them beating a better Bills team in Buffalo, in December. Right. David: Bills. Rational: With the first pick of the 2008 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select Glenn Dorsey. Trap pick, because even though he's a beast, he won't be in a position to succeed: With the first pick of the 2008 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select Darren McFadden. Right. John: Bills. The Dolphins will win a game before the season is out, but it won’t be in freezing cold Buffalo with the Bills looking for a playoff spot. Right. Zach: Bills. This game means the most to: Cam Cameron. He's running out of chances to avoid the ignominy of 0-16, and while playing in Buffalo in December is never a good thing for Miami, this might be his last best chance at a win. It won't happen, and Cam will have a damn hard time keeping his job. Right. Eagles -2.5 vs. Giants Ben: Eagles. Don't trust Eli Manning. Nope don't trust him one bit. Beside the annual Giants swoon is upon us. Wrong. David: Eagles. Eli isn't very good. We know this. Almost everyone knows this, but the G-Men have to ride him as far as they can. Wrong. John: Eagles. The Giants continue to get by playing bad football, but the other teams can’t seem to take advantage. The Eagles will, and this will catapult them to potential playoff run. Wrong. Zach: Eagles. This game means the most to: Donovan McNabb. AJ Feeley isn't good, and a solid performance by #5 should bury any lingering controversy. Of course it won't, because most Philly fans are racist, ignorant assholes, but it's worth a shot. Wrong. Jaguars -10.5 vs. Panthers Ben: Jaguars. Two jungle cats battle and only one will emerge. The Panthers are more like an old, beat up house cat while the Jags are a ferocious, hungry beast. Or in layman's terms, the Panthers suck and Jags are good. Go with the good team. Right. David: Jaguars. As as been documented numerous times this season, the Panthers QB situation is bad enough that their reasonably talented line and receivers don't really matter. Right. John: Jaguars. The Panthers are just awful, and the Jaguars are darn good. Right. Zach: Jaguars. This game means the most to: Whoever approved these expansion franchises. Jacksonville is a good team playing in a terrible city, while Carolina is a terrible team playing in a good city. Hooray for oversaturating the southern US with sports franchises nobody follows! Right. Titans Pick vs. Chargers Ben: Chargers. Albert Haynesworth is back so I'm very tempted to jump on the Titans again. I also feel dirty trusting Norv Turner. Now I know how the Chargers' ownership feels! Right. David: Chargers. Just a hunch that Vince will make one more dumb play to overcome the Chargers' poor preparation and playcalling. Ultimately, I think we're all still blaming San Diego for not being as awesome as we thought they should be, but they're still not that bad. Right. John: Chargers. The Titans are in a downward spiral as people realize Vince Young has a better chance of running the ball on any given play for 20 yards, than throwing it. Right. Zach: Titans. This game means the most to: Albert Haynesworth. Shut down LT, and he's got to be a lock for DPoY. Wrong. Bengals -7 vs. Rams Ben: Bengals. The Rams are playing well these days. But now starting at QB for Sunday's game, Brock Berlin. The same Brock Berlin whom I affectionately nicknamed Pick Hurlin' dating by to his days as Kenny Dorsey's heir at the U. I never thought I'd see the day when he got a chance to quarterback an NFL game. What's next? Chris Rix (or Chris Picks?) starting a game? Drew Weatherford taken on day 1 if the NFL draft? Jessie Palmer, lead studio analyst? Oh wait…Right. David: Bengals. I haven't seen what Ben wrote, but I'm going to guarantee a lame Brock Berlin joke. Lame? Yes, lame. Because I've got a better one.... In this game, the Rams are going to collapse faster than the Brock Berlin Wall did in November '89. Right. John: Bengals. The Cats seem to have put it together a little bit. See what kind of glue Chris Henry is for a locker room? But seriously, this will be a scorefest and the Bengals are more adept at playing outside in the cold. Right. Zach: Bengals. This game means the most to: Ben Valentine. Because if Brock Berlin is even marginally competent, it will throw his whole love affair with Ken Dorsey into turmoil. Right. Packers -10.5 vs. Raiders Ben: Packers. Long week for Green Bay, at home, against a Raiders team that is due for a loss. I don't see the Raiders winning here, so I won't pick them.Right. David: Packers. I'm not scared of Brett Favre's injury, because Favre is the man against which all other men are measured. Anyone else, and, collectively, we'd be wondering if Aaron Rodgers's performance indicated that maybe the whole offense is pretty strong and it's not just a Favre resurgence driving the Pack. Regardless, the Raiders suck. Right. John: Packers. This is a bad matchup for Oakland who needs to run the ball to be effective. The Pack will be annoyed after loss to Dallas last week. Right. Zach: Packers. This game means the most to: Ryan Grant. We know Favre's tough. We know he's good. The Packers need him to be both to have a shot at the Super Bowl. Oakland's got a good pass defense, but they suck against the run, so expect to see plenty of Grant to buy #4 a bit more time to recover. Right. Patriots -10.5 vs. Steelers Ben: Patriots. Because as soon as I jump off the Pats bandwagon they'll start winning big again. Right. David: Steelers.I've finally turned. The linebacker situation for New England is dire. Note the teams The Pats have been playing recently: Philly, Baltimore, and now Pittsburgh. I'm not usually one to put much stock in things like swagger and attitude, but I think in this case, there's a grain of truth related to swagger and attitude hidden in here. Consider: Until the Eagles game, the Patriots didn't play any opponent whose defensive personality was that of a proud aggressor. New England's offense has been taking on that role, bullying and smacking around other teams. Finally, when they faced Philadelphia, the Colvin situation came up, and they finally faced an explicitly aggressive team. Baltimore was more of the same. Now, the Pats are so talented, they were able to capitalize on opposing quarterbacks' mistakes and escape with wins, but I think the Steelers have the talent, even minus Polamalu, to stick with the Patriots, hit back when the Pats try to bully them, and win outright. Wrong. John: Steelers. The Pats mediocre play for two straight weeks catches up to them and the Steelers end the undefeated season. Wrong. Zach: Patriots. This game means the most to: Bill Belichick. This is it Bill. The brass ring. Your team has flirted with disaster the last two weeks, against inferior teams. The offense has played well, but not anywhere near the level you'd established the first ten games of the year. Defensively, people have realized that without Roosevelt Colvin your linebackers are old and slow. Losing in Indy, to a very good Colts team, would have been understandable. Losing at home to a mercurial Steelers team, a team missing one of their top defensive weapons could derail your entire season. Let's see what you've got. Right. Texans +3 vs. Buccaneers Ben: Buccaneers. Jeff Garcia is starting, so I feel comfortable taking the Bucs here. Wow, that's something I didn't think I'd say three years ago. Wrong. David: Buccaneers. So help me, if Tampa makes the NFC Championship Game, we're going to hit critical mass on uses of the word "scrappy". Wrong. John: Texans. After a big win last week the Bucs let down against the Texans. Right. Zach: Buccaneers. This game means the most to: Nobody except fantasy owners. Tampa Bay is going to walk away with the NFC South. The Texans are going nowhere. Still, there are enough Andre Johnson owners out there to keep a few folks tuned in. Wrong. Seahawks -7 vs. Cardinals Ben: Seahawks. NFC West football at it's best! Right. David: Seahawks. Subtracting Shaun Alexander makes all the difference. On a separate note, is it possible Ken Whisenhunt is working to make the quarterback position fungible? Tim Rattay! Tim Rattay! Right. John: Seahawks. The Arizona receivers are all banged up, and they can’t play on the road. Seattle, on the other hand, is great at home. Right. Zach: Seahawks. This game means the most to: Shaun Alexander. He was decent enough last week to stave off criticism and get almost all of the carries (which is a reason the game was closer than it should have been), but he has almost no leeway with fans (and hopefully the team). Struggle again against the Cardinals, and I think we'll see more Mo Morris. Right. 49ers +8.5 vs. Vikings Ben: Vikings. I hear that Adrian Peterson guy is good. Also heard; the Niners can't pass. That means a long day against the Vikings dominant front line. Right. David: Vikings. I love Patrick Willis. That said, don't be shocked if Purple Jesus has 200 yards by halftime. Right. John: Vikings. One team is rolling, the other stinks to high heaven. Right. Zach: Vikings. This game means the most to: All the other crappy NFC wild card contenders. Even with no quarterback and a suspect pass defense, this Vikings team appears to be the frontrunner for the final playoff spot in the NFC. With a cakewalk this week, Minnesota is well positioned to seize that spot, which spells trouble for the Lions, Cardinals, Eagles, Redskins, and everyone else who doesn't suck quite enough to be out of the race. Right. Jets +3.5 vs. Browns Ben: Browns. It's a long anticipated rematch of the Civil War between Derek Anderson and Kellen Clemens. (Oregon State/Oregon for those not up on their college football rivalries) If I were in NY watching this game, I'd be making non stop Simpsons and Matrix jokes for four quarters. Right. David: Browns.Just to keep up, the Jets' offense will have to pick it up big time. Color me skeptical. Right. John: Jets. Wrong. Zach: Jets. This game means the most to: the city of Cleveland. Let's face it, this Browns team has overachieved all year long. They look like they could be headed for a Lions/Cardinals type fade: a team that has no history of success starts out strong, only to collapse once they realize that they're the Browns and are supposed to suck and crush their fans. Bad juju takes a long time to overcome. Wrong. Broncos -6.5 vs. Chiefs Ben: Chiefs. I don't know who is going to win this, which means a big spread is a no-no. I'm taking the points. Wrong. David: Broncos. Is Jay Cutler the most overlooked solid starting QB in the NFL? I think it's because he's bland. And played at Vanderbilt. He's the perfect mix of un-terrible and un-brilliant. Wrong. John: Broncos. I think I’ve picked the Broncos wrong every single week this season. One day they’re beating the Steelers, the next they can’t beat the Raiders. Right. Zach: Broncos. This game means the most to: Mike Shanahan. Yes, he has two Super Bowl rings, but I think people in Denver are getting mighty sick of his whole schtick (and the last two underwhelming seasons). Right. Ravens +9 vs. Colts Ben: Colts.I just get the feeling Baltimore will be hung over from their Monday night loss and be a bit flat facing Indy here. Right. David: Colts. Huge letdown game for the Ravens after their most emotional game this season (and that's saying something for the Ravens). They're less talented to begin with, so if they have any trouble getting up for the game, forget it. Right. John: Colts. Ravens are imploding after that awful loss to New England. Mike Gravel has a better chance of being President with Dennis Kucinich as his running mate than Brian Billick does at coaching the Ravens again next season. Right. Zach: Colts. This game means the most to: lovers of football cliches. See, the Ravens are coming off an emotionally draining loss to the Patriots on Monday: short week, another tough game, spells big time letdown. Also, they're not very good, which helps. Right. Falcons +5 vs. Saints Ben: Saints. Don't all jump onto the Chris Redman bandwagon at once people. David: Saints. I always confuse Chris Redman with Mike Redmond. John: Saints. The Saints are another team I haven’t picked right all year but you gotta figure they’ll be up for a nationally televised Monday night game, right? Zach: Falcons. This game means the most to: Reggie Bush. And he's not even playing in it. The rumblings are getting louder and louder about him being a bust as a running back, so he desperately needs the Saints offense to struggle. I'm undecided about the whole issue: it seems like there's an equal chance that the Saints just haven't figured out how to use him effectively, since most of his touches seem to be two-yard passes where he's supposed to beat three defenders. Maybe he needs another back to take some of the pressure off him, or maybe he needs another system, one that can get him the ball in space so he can make big plays. Of course, it could just be that his speed and elusiveness are less exceptional now that he's playing in the NFL. Last Week Ben: 6-10 David: 8-8 John: 8-8 Zach: 11-5 Season Standings Zach: 120-76-11 David: 106-90-11 Ben: 99-97-11 John: 88-108-11]]> http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/12/nfl_picks_week_fourteen_1.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/12/nfl_picks_week_fourteen_1.htm Football Gambling NFL NFL Picks Prognostication Sun, 09 Dec 2007 12:45:15 -0500 This just in; every team in baseball would love to have Johan Santana, Eric Bedard and Dan Haren. Shocking, I know. Thursday baseball general managers left Nashville after taking part in one of the most hyped winter meetings in recent memory. And to its credit, it did produce a bit of action. Andruw Jones signed with the Dodgers, Elijah Dukes got shipped to Washington as Jim Bowden continues to collect outfielders with bad reps, Aaron Cook made people wish they had been pitchers and the Tigers pulled off one of the bigger trades in recent memory for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Then again, with all of the hype going in, around and during the winter meetings, the talk is less over what did happen and what didn't. Johan Santana was going to be a Yankee. Then he wasn't. Then he was going to be a Red Sox. Then he wasn't. Then he was going to be a Met in an crazy three way deal. Oh no wait, now he isn't. Afterwards the Twins said they wanted to wrap it up in the following 24 hours. Then, because Jack Bauer apparently failed to save the day, the Twins decided they'll keep him for now. And by now, I mean talk about extending his contract and keeping him for a while. Get all of that? No? That's okay. I got to digest all of that as it came in and I still have no idea what the heck is going on. That goes ditto for Bedard and Haren. The winter meetings reporting ultimately degenerated into a giant unsubstantiated rumor fest. They say that you can never trust anything from the internet; well this week it was "trust nothing coming from Nashville". In fact, I'm going to hold off believing Miguel Cabrera isn't coming to kill the Mets 19 times this year until I actually see him in a Tigers uniform. In all seriousness, it is hard to take anything that was reported this week as accurate. Reporters contradicted each other all the time. It wasn't as if rival competitors were doing it either; ESPN's own twenty reporters were coming up with different takes on the same story. Heck they were contradicting themselves fifteen minutes later. And by themselves I mean Peter Gammons arguing with Peter Gammons. I guess the goal for ESPN was to get the right story by sending every baseball writer they could find there. And I also suppose they succeeded, if only because so many possibilities were reported someone had to eventually get it right. But it wasn't just ESPN. Everyone had to be there first and for the most part, everyone was wrong. On the first night, WFAN reported the Mets were close to Eric Bedard. I didn't get excited. Instead I waited for the other shoe to drop. It did of course; soon close meant "maybe will meet in the future." Or maybe it meant discussed something in passing earlier. Or… well you get the idea. Of course the next day, sources also said the Dodgers were on the verge of acquiring the lefty for Matt Kemp and Jonathan Broxton. Guess what? Didn't happen. In fact, the Dodgers went as far as to say Broxton was off limits. So where exactly did people get that rumor from? One of the oddest moments when an online blog posted a crazy Mets/Twins/A's three way rumor involving Jose Reyes, Johan Santana and Dan Haren. It was so insane that Billy Beane called it "a complete fabrication." The sad thing is that blog rumor was about as accurate as what the mainstream news was reporting. How do we know the Santana to the Red Sox deals were anymore valid? Or the ones about the Cubs and Orioles over Brian Roberts. How about the A's discussing Dan Haren with the Diamondbacks for about eight different guys depending on whom you talk to. Ironically, reporters thought the Marlins and Tigers were just putting up a smokescreen. It was just to get the Angels price up we heard. Surprise, they were wrong about that too. The one trade that was rumored to have no chance of going down actually did. So what the heck is the point??? It sells of course. I freely admit to refreshing Rotoworld, Metsblog and MLB Trade Rumors to see if anything interesting was being talked about. The thing was, it's never a good sign when you can figure out if trade rumors are bogus or not. A good example is something that one writer had yesterday. He claimed the Mets tried to trade Aaron Heilman for Brian Fuentes but balked at it when the Rockies wanted Scott Schoeneweis? Um what? Now I can't tell you with 100% certainty this trade was BS. But common sense says it is. Schoeneweis has been a major disappointment in New York and is under contract for two more years. Why would the Mets balk at taking him out of the bullpen, when they'd be adding another lefty to their pen in Fuentes? Furthermore why would the Rockies want that? They could resign Jeremy Affeldt for the same amount or less. In addition, this is a team that won't go more than one year with LaTroy Hawkins. Why would they for a lefty who is about as inconsistent? It doesn't make much sense. While I rip the Lastings Milledge trade, I understand why the Mets did it, even if it was for the wrong reasons. I have no idea why the Mets would agree to trade Heilman to the Rockies and then refuse to deal a guy who has negative value in the deal. If I can figure this out, why can't the person reporting it? At some point we have to wonder whether these reporters are actually reporting stories or guessing at what makes sense to them… you know, what I did last Friday. Of course I said I was guessing at what made sense to me. They claim sources. Or could it be worse? Could these guys listening to something, anything, just to be the ones who broke it. In the flurry of rumors, something that does not pan out is quickly forgotten. But if you break the Johan trade before everyone else, then that's a big feather in your cap. On that note, here's a rumor for you. Johan Santana will not get traded in the next 10 minutes. Yeah it's completely baseless. But you know what? So was 95% of everything else you heard this week. Which means you should go check your computers in a half hour or so. Knowing every other rumor this week, this one will probably end up being false too. http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/12/hype_fest_1.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/12/hype_fest_1.htm Johan Santana MLB Winter Meetings Fri, 07 Dec 2007 13:49:37 -0500 Renders the bowls meaningless: Yeah, because everyone I know is getting up for the International Bowl between Rutgers and Ball State. Also, if USC wins the Rose Bowl this year it will give USC the title… of being the fourth team this year to beat Illinois. -Renders the regular season meaningless: I didn't realize everyone got in. Under the scenario I provided, Illinois, currently in the BCS, doesn't get in. BC doesn't get in. USF doesn't get in. Oregon doesn't get in.Those last three schools were top of the BCS at one point this year and still in the top 25. Besides, this would entice conferences to play stronger out of conference schedules in a bid to gain a better chance of securing at large bids. It would be in a school's best interest to go hard out of conference because they'd have a fall back if they didn't win their conference. -College football will have too many games: Didn't stop them from expanding to 12 games not including conference championships a few years back. They also play for two semesters in basketball. Besides, now a days, sports are year round. Springtime practice anyone? It's pretty simple to disprove these three anti playoff pillars isn't it? Now try looking at the way the BCS favors the major conferences and try to show how a playoff would be in their best interest monetarily. Look, they won't lose much. In fact, they could gain in the long run. But nothing is guaranteed and they have no reason not to be risk averse. That is unless people complain loud enough. Or more likely, the small schools threaten to bring legal action against the BCS conferences again. They have to erode the BCS monopoly to the point where it no longer is beneficial to the major conferences to continue in it. If the playoffs look like a better way to stack their deck, then they'll move in that direction. So that's as good a reason as any to root for Hawaii to play a good game in the Sugar Bowl. The better the mid majors of the world do in their one BCS chance, the better the chances of them pushing for more equity. More equity would force a playoff. Until then college football will be forever stuck in a Jim Mora-esque purgatory when discussing alternatives to the yearly BCS disaster.]]> http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/12/playoffs_1.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/12/playoffs_1.htm College Football Tue, 04 Dec 2007 13:50:03 -0500 Editor's Note:. Sorry folks, I'm out of town and stuck in a snowstorm, so all you're getting are the picks...I'll update as soon as I can. This Week Ben: 6-10 David: 8-8 John: 8-8 Zach: 11-5 Cowboys -6.5 vs. Packers Ben: Packers. David: Cowboys. John: Packers. Zach: Cowboys. Ben's Picks Falcons +3 Redskins -5 Vikings -3 Texans +3.5 Jaguars +7 Dolphins -1 Chargers -4 Eagles -3 Panthers -3 Saints -3 Browns +1 Broncos -3 Giants -1 Steelers -7 Patriots -20 David's Picks Lions Rams Texans Jets Redskins Chiefs Colts Eagles Panthers Buccaneers Browns Broncos Giants Steelers Patriots John's Picks Jets Rams Bills Vikings Titans Jaguars Chiefs Eagles Panthers Saints Giants Browns Broncos Bengals Patriots Zach's Picks Rams Redskins Vikings Titans Jaguars Jets Chargers Eagles Panthers Buccaneers Browns Broncos Giants Steelers Patriots Season Standings Zach: 109-72-11 David: 96-85-11 Ben: 88-93-11 John: 77-104-11]]> http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/12/nfl_picks_week_13.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/12/nfl_picks_week_13.htm Football Gambling NFL NFL Picks Prognostication Sun, 02 Dec 2007 09:20:14 -0500 Yankees send: Phillip Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy Why it makes sense: The Twins get one of the best young arms in baseball. In fact, outside of Felix Hernandez and Hughes’ teammate Joba Chamberlain, there’s probably none better. (I’d take Hughes over Joba if I had my druthers) The Twins get a centerfielder who can play above average defense and post an .750-.850 OPS at his best. Kennedy projects to be a solid starter. Why it may not happen: The Yankees refuse to do it because they don’t want to surrender Hughes, or the Sox offer two great prospects. However, I believe this trade is the most likely scenario, since Bossman Jr. likely takes after his old man in an affinity for dealing prospects for established stars. Red Sox send: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie and Coco Crisp Why it makes sense: The Red Sox give up two young arms, but only one is making their rotation barring injury anyway. Crisp is a guy the team would love to dump and Lowrie is a good prospect. Talent wise, it is close enough the Twins might be willing to bite, especially if the Yankees don’t want to budge off Hughes. Why it won’t happen: The Twins get the Yankees to throw in Hughes, who is a better arm than anyone in the Red Sox package. Cabrera is cost controlled so he is more valuable than Crisp. The Twins then go back and ask for Ellsbury instead of Crisp and get balked at. Mets send: Carlos Gomez, Mike Pelfrey, Deolis Guerra Why it makes sense: Gomez is the best talent of the centerfielders talked about, even though he’s the most raw. As a 21 year old in AAA, he had a 777 OPS and a .363 OBP. Mike Pelfrey is a surer bet than Ian Kennedy or Jon Lester even with his early career struggles. Guerra has held is own, despite being just 18 years old at high A ball. Why it won’t happen: Gomez has the most upside of any player in the talked about deals outside of Hughes, but he also could be the biggest bust. If the Twins want a great pitching prospect, then Pelfrey likely won’t cut it at this stage. Guerra’s K numbers offset his age a bit and lessen his value. Also, Jose Reyes is not happening. Dodgers send: Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, Chin- Lung Hu Why it makes sense: No team in baseball has more prospects to burn than LA. They also seem to be the most reluctant to play those kids, so trading them would give them a means by which to get value from them without having to give them PT. Simple no? Billingsley has proven the most of any high end pitchers talked about, Kemp could play center and Hu posted an .842 OPS at SS in AAA this year. Two top prospects and a solid third would be a good haul for the lefty. Why it won’t happen: The Dodgers balk at trading two of their top prospects or don’t want to pay Santana. The latter seems to be most likely. They might also turn around a throw an offer the way of the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera. Angels send: Jered Weaver, Howie Kendrick and Reggie Willits Why it makes sense: Weaver does not have the upside of Billingsley, Hughes or Buchholz, but he has pitched in the bigs for two years now. Kendrick is still a highly regarded position player and Willits is expendable for the Angels. The Twins could then try to play Delmon Young in center. Why it won’t happen: Good offer, but I think someone will trump them and the Angels won’t want to go much beyond this. Mariners send: Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and Wladimir Balentein Why it makes sense: I didn’t consult Zach, so maybe it makes no sense for the Mariners. But for the Twins, they get top notch centerfield prospect in Jones, a good young arm in Morrow and another raw but talented prospect in Balentein. Why it won’t happen: Even if they agreed to the prospects price, I just can’t see the Mariners forking over the dough for Johan. And just for fun, some other deals I could see happening: Mets send: Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey and Joe Smith A's send Dan Haren If you look at Billy Beane's big swaps of Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson, you see that he tends to get a pitching prospect who could step in (Dan Meyer, Dan Haren) and other prospect who's got upside (Daric Barton, Charles Thomas) and a reliever (Kiko Calero). This fits the mold well. The Mets might also substitute Carlos Gomez in, if Beane wants a centerfielder. Mets send: Carlos Gomez and Kevin Mulvey A's send: Joe Blanton Beane might ask for the moon for Blanton, but he really doesn't fit the mold of pitchers Omar Minaya likes to target. Oliver Perez, John Maine, Jason Vargas, John Patterson--- see a pattern? High K guys. I don't think he'd pay premium for a low K guy like Blanton. Gomez and a second tier prospect like Mulvey is probably as far as I'm guessing he'd go. Considering Jon Garland (aka a skinnier Blanton) just got back an okay player in Orlando Cabrera, I'm not sure the market for Blanton is as good as people think. Mets send Kevin Mulvey and Fernando Martinez Marlins send: Dontrelle Willis I’d vomit but D-Train has a name and his value is down. The Marlins are rebuilding and though they would prefer major league ready guys, they’d likely take talent first and foremost. Martinez would be that. Mets send: Lastings Milledge, Mike Pelfrey and Deolis Guerra Orioles send Erik Bedard I still don't believe the Orioles will trade Bedard, but if they put him on the market, I could see the Mets ponying up this offer. The O's get an outfielder and pitcher who will step right in and a decent prospect for down the road. It's not the best offer anyone can muster but this is a case where you don't think the Red Sox and Yankees would be involved- the O's probably wouldn't deal in division. If the Dodgers unload their chips elsewhere, this suddenly becomes more likely. 2:52 edit Well the Mets trading Milledge for Brian Schneider and Ryan Church (gag/gag/gag) ends this possibility. Switch Milledge out for Gomez or Martinez. Angels trade: Howie Kendrick, Reggie Willits and Jered Weaver Marlins send: Miguel Cabrera This would be a steep price, in fact, it’s the same deal I offered for Johan. but let's look at the factors here: Weaver is a good pitcher who tops out as a two. The Angels have two pitchers better in John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar. Willits is out of a job anyway with the Torii Hunter signing. Oh and Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball under the age of 27. For the record, he'll be 25 next year. Hitters are surer bets than pitchers and the Angels need some punch for their lineup more than they need the ace. Considering Willits, it would come down to Kendrick and Weaver for Cabrera. How could you not do that if you are Anahiem? Angels trade Willits and Kendrick Orioles send Miguel Tejada I would hate this move if I were an Angels fan, but it makes some sense when you think about how baseball is. Kendrick is still untapped potential and Willits is a guy whose on base skills make him valuable but underappreciated. Plus I already can see the spin: “Tejada is a veteran with a good track record and could use a change of scenery.” The problem is that for Jered Weaver they could probably have Miguel Cabrera. But I think that the name of Tejada and the allure of Weaver would make this hard to pass up, if offered. Dodgers trade Matt Kemp and Andy LaRoche Marlins send: Cabrera Kemp immediately goes into centerfield for the Marlins who have suffered through the likes of Alfredo Armezaga and Reggie Abercrombie for the last two years. LaRoche replaces Cabrera at third base. The Dodgers add some much needed punch to their lineup and could play Cabrera at third, left or first base. Dodgers trade Kemp and Billingsley Orioles send: Bedard Bedard was nearly as good as Johan, is younger, cheaper and pitched in the most difficult division in baseball for a pitcher. If the price for Bedard is lower than Santana, the Dodgers would be fools not to pull the trigger on a trade. It’s possible they could throw a similar offer the way of the A’s for Dan Haren or Joe Blanton, but giving up both Kemp and Billingsley for those two is probably too much for the Dodgers to surrender. ]]> http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/11/pitching_sweepstakes_1.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/11/pitching_sweepstakes_1.htm Boston Red Sox Johan Santana Minnesota Twins New York Mets New York Yankees Fri, 30 Nov 2007 11:49:18 -0500 So the NFC Report is back after taking a couple of weeks off. From the Eagles nearly taking out the Patriots to the potential return of the Purple Jesus, it's been an exciting week in the NFC. However, there's only one storyline in the NFC worth discussing today, and it's a doozy. Tonight, all eyes will be in Dallas as the 10-1 Cowboys host the 10-1 Packers. We've already been privileged to see a match-up of unbeatens earlier this year, but a showdown of one-loss teams this late in the year is almost as rare. Hopefully, the game is as competitive as the Patriots-Colts game was. First off, these are a pair of very good teams, but at this point it's clear that the Cowboys are the superior team, with a better offense and defense. However, the difference between the two isn't that great, and while the Cowboys are (and should be) favored, a Green Bay win would be far from shocking. Many of the storylines leading into this game have centered around the quarterbacks (as they usually do), and both Brett Favre and Tony Romo have been excellent stories this year. Romo has shook off the disastrous end to the 2006 season to emerge as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. His improvisational skills can be stunning to watch, and he's mostly managed to avoid the dumb throws which plagued him late last year. Obviously, the rest of the offense has made things easier on him, but most of the same players were in place a year ago when Romo routinely forced balls into traffic, costing Dallas several winnable games. His ascension has steadied a quarterback position which has more or less been in flux since Troy Aikman retired. Speaking of retired, that's what most people expected Brett Favre to be by this year. Instead, he's not just still playing, he's posting the best year of any quarterback not named Tom Brady. For years, I was one of those folks who was sick and tired of hearing about #4, but what he's doing this year is simply amazing. Yes, part of the credit belongs to an underrated corps of receivers, but a lot of it should go to Favre, who's having his best season in a decade. Still, the Packers are far from a one-man team. The mainstream media keeps painting them as a pass-only offense, but they're actually 9th in rushing DVOA. They don't run all that often, but they run effectively when they do, and their ability to spread the field with four- and five-receiver sets means that opposing defenses can't stack against the run on any but the most obvious run situations. Defensively, they're strong against the run, as the Vikings found out a few weeks ago, and the pass defense is decent. However, they'll be sorely tested against the Cowboys, who have a pair of talented receivers in TO and Patrick Crayton as well as tight end Jason Witten. The weakness of the defense is the safeties, so expect to see a lot of Owens deep, as well as Witten going up the seams. The one area where the Packers have an advantage is on special teams. Green Bay has been better in both kickoff returns and kick coverage, and in a game that figures to feature quite a few scores that could prove somewhat meaningful. If this game were in Green Bay, I'd probably pick the Packers, but the Cowboys being at home and being the better team makes it hard to pick against them. Beyond the Packers and Cowboys, the rest of the NFC is something of a mishmash. Tampa Bay and Seattle have emerged as the classes of a pair of horrific divisions, but expecting either team to put up much of a fight against the top two seems hard to fathom. Two other teams will make the playoffs, but the rest of the teams in the race are all horribly flawed in some way. Of course, at this same junction we said that Colts-Pats was just Round One, and that they were certain to meet in the AFC Championship game. That's a bit more in doubt now with all the injuries that have ravaged Indy, but still could happen. Similarly, barring a fluky set of injuries or some other unforeseen circumstance, expect to see Green Bay and Dallas playing again in six or so weeks. http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/11/the_nfc_report_week_13_1.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/11/the_nfc_report_week_13_1.htm Football NFC NFC Report Thu, 29 Nov 2007 11:19:01 -0500 Tuesday morning, Redskins safety Sean Taylor passed away after being shot in the femoral artery early Monday morning. He was 24. Responses have been for the most part sympathetic towards the former Miami Hurricanes standout, and rightfully so. Whenever a person loses their life to violence, sadness over the lost is natural. There are some who point to Taylor’s past, wondering if it finally caught up to him. Some called him “a thug”, going as far to suggest he had reaped what he sowed. Certainly you could get that sense from reading the original AP reports of the story, which highlighted Taylor’s off the field problems in the past. Others paint a different picture; of a man who had gone through serious life changes in the past two years. It was the story of man who had turned over a new leaf, whose daughter’s birth had brought him back from a destructive path, only to have it find him anyway. It was a story that should have had a happy ending, which makes it all the more tragic. In a tale of two different men who both died on Tuesday, I cannot tell you which one was the real Sean Taylor. I simply do not know. The sports world is a place that is chock full of stories. You can’t escape them. Even if you watch sports purely for joy of seeing high levels of competition, you will no doubt be subject to elaborate openings, feature pieces and more to tell you why you should care about this game more than life itself. The end result is the development of a warped sense of perception. We begin to feel as though we know these modern day gladiators because we saw, at most, five tailored minutes into their lives. In some cases, that five minutes is broken up into multiple 15 second sound bites. Other times it is filled with outside commentary meant to shape our perceptions and enhance the storytelling aspect of the game. Where we end up is at a place that does not feature people, but caricatures of individuals who can be summed up in a sentence or two. We think we understand them, but in reality we have no idea who they are. Who is Michael Vick? The stories a few years ago differ from the ones today. Vick was an amazing athlete then, who was so highly thought of just eight months ago, that he was at the forefront of the Virginia Tech massacre remembrance. At the time, Vick was a highly paid athlete who, unlike his brother Marcus, had stayed out of trouble. Water bottle incidents aside (and remember, that was tossed out), Vick was a marketable individual who people respected and dare I say, loved, idolized and looked up to. His story was a positive one. Now, Vick is a social pariah. He’s the face of the out of control athlete who has no regard to the laws of society. He is a barbarian, an inhuman animal because he brutalized and tortured dogs. What he did in the past doesn’t matter; he might have donated millions to charity and overcome a great deal. He committed a societal evil and thus he a disgrace to the human race. But who IS Michael Vick? Is he a sociopath? Or is an average guy with a lot of money that doesn’t value animal’s lives highly? The reaction and outcry has been to a singular aspect of a man’s life that has colored him in a certain light. Michael Vick might be a thug, a wannabe gangsta. Or he might be a guy who saw nothing wrong in betting on a brutal sport, like many people do with cockfighting, bullfighting. I don’t know Michael Vick. But I know the caricature of him. Who is Tom Brady? Brady’s image in 2003 is certainly different than it is now. Back then he was the consummate underdog, who rose from nowhere to prominence. He was the guy who nobody wanted and became the hero everyone wished they had. He was antithesis of Peyton Manning. Manning was the hot shot, silver spoon in his mouth QB that didn’t have the moxie to win like Brady because he had never learned to deal with adversity. Brady had dealt with it ever since college; he had a heart of gold and balls of steel. In 2007, Brady is a celebrity. The underdog tag is lurking, but not prevalent. The everyman’s tag- long gone. He has actually managed to turn Manning into the guy you want to root for. After all, he doesn’t date actresses, knock them up, then leave them for super models. He doesn’t do “Manly man” ads that portray the Californian Brady as some rugged cowboy from Texas. Brady is a man who was a featured guest at George W. Bush’s state of the union address, only to make a mockery of Republican family values. So who is Tom Brady? Is he an everyman who worked hard? Is he a glamour boy who always had the talent but none of the exposure? Can he be considered a responsible person worthy of being looking up to, considering what we proclaim to “know” about his personal life? I couldn’t tell you. Brady might be a great guy to hang out with, but a terrible person. He might be outwardly arrogant and a good person underneath. There are an infinite number of possibilities. Who knows which is the truth? What do Mets fans make of Lastings Milledge? Everything he does gets a share of positive and negative feedback depending on who you are talking to. Milledge started his own rap label, saying there were things in life other than baseball. Some cheered him for stating the obvious, others lambasted him for focusing on something else when he hadn’t proven a thing in the majors. Which is right? What about when he slapped the hands of fans after his first major league home run? Arrogance or exuberance? One day Jose Reyes is the golden boy. A mediocre half season later, he’s the guy who parties too much. That would never happen with Derek Jeter, the consummate professional, who exemplifies everything that an athlete should be. Of course the truth is about ten years ago, it did happen with Jeter as George Steinbrenner even had to rather publically rebuke him for it. But youthful ignorance can be excused because Jeter is a better man now right? Well he also might have willfully tried to get around paying taxes. Sort of like Barry Bonds, the most evil human being to ever walk the earth not named Michael Vick. Nobody fits the mold of caricature better than Bonds- about whom few people who anything about surface facts and second hand stories. Yet people already have their opinions made about him, rightly or wrongly and on both sides of the fence. He’s so polarizing we are told we MUST feel a way about him. You must love him, or you must hate him. There can be no in between. It seems the sports world cannot accept that Bonds might be a guy who juiced, but is not a bad person. Or maybe he is just a dick. Like Babe Ruth reportedly was. But wait, wasn’t Ruth beloved- he certainly is now. His warts are glossed over and forgotten. Why can’t he just be a man and not a gargantuan either/or? Why does Bill Belichick’s decisions as a coach decide whether who he is off the field? Is he a worse man than Tony Dungy? A slam dunk question for some. Not for me. I see the whole good vs. evil aspect entirely a social construct for advancing a story. There are lurking questions about both men that probably will never be answered. I don’t say this to hail one and bash the other- I’m simply stating a reality. Part of this creation of the caricature just is the nature of private life. We can only get so from what people show us in public. Even those close to some don’t know about what they keep hidden. Another part of it is that sensationalism sells. The populace has made a judgment on Brittany Spears based on what sound bites and supermarket tabloids have told them. Vick’s only contribution to the world off the field is dog fighting because giving to charity just doesn’t sell papers. We want to see the seedy underbelly. But we want our heroes too. Without them, we wouldn’t follow sports, movies, or hell, the world in general, because it would be too depressing. So maybe it isn’t that we can’t get the whole story but instead that we choose not to. In fiction we see gray characters all the time, but that fiction is usually localized to books. Most mainstream movies and TV feature caricatures all the time. Heroes are all good, villains all evil with little redeemable qualities. It seems we are on the whole, incapable of having people of depth in our stories. Thus we are told why Babe Ruth isn’t Barry Bonds, or why Derek Jeter is different from Jose Reyes. Or why Michael Vick is scum, or how Pac-Man Jones is like Sean Taylor. Or was he? I couldn’t tell you. After all, I don’t know who Pac-Man Jones really is. And I’ll never know what kind of man Sean Taylor really was. http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/11/caricatures_1.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/11/caricatures_1.htm Sean Taylor Tue, 27 Nov 2007 14:47:20 -0500 Sportszilla Live! will be airing at 4 pm Pacific today because of Sonics-related evening plans for yours truly. Sorry for any inconvenience.]]> http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/11/sportszilla_live_1125.htm http://www.sportszillablog.com/2007/11/sportszilla_live_1125.htm Site Announcements Sportszilla Live Sun, 25 Nov 2007 18:21:32 -0500